September Roll

Here is the requested chart format, rolled forward to the September ES futures contract. Today hit yesterday's upper daily Bollinger Band resistance and the 5 = 3 initial EW resistance, made a slight new high, and then turned lower forming a bearish engulfing candle (or outside key-reversal-day, lower).

I do not wish to repeat items plainly on the chart, but the Bollinger Band resistance and EW resistance have moved up a tad. More importantly, the daily slow stochastic is still embedded and often that means that the Smart Money will buy on significant pullbacks trying to press price back up into the band again. When they do this, they will do it until the red line of the slow stochastic closes back under 79 again, thereby losing the embedded status. That hasn't happened yet. For an example of this, see the May 23, 2024, bar, above. (Caveat, this often happens but not always.)

Further, if the high of the outside key-reversal-day lower is taken out within two trading days, it is said to spring a trap for the bears. Similarly - from a candlestick perspective - although the day's bar is a bearish engulfing, like most candle patterns follow-through in the form a significantly lower close is needed to better confirm the pattern. If not, without significant overlap, it can just be the 'c' wave of a larger fourth wave.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe