Thanks for the feedback, so far. Here is another example which is not so clear and there are ones that even get murkier than this. This is the current daily chart in August Crude Oil. Other features of the chart appear below it (I won't repeat all of what is plainly on the chart).
%202024_06_19%20(10_40_16%20AM)%20Experimental.png)
Features of the chart:
- Wave i is an Expanding Leading Diagonal. Readers should prove this on a smaller time frame.
- Wave iv does not overlap wave i. Wave v has a lower low.
- Wave B is a Regular Flat, a-3, b-3, c-5. Wave C is 78.6% x Wave A.
- Wave C diverged on the Slow Stochastic. It was a 'faster' wave than wave A.
- Waves A, B and C best fit in a corrective parallel trend channel. Readers should verify this.
Prospects:
The daily slow stochastic is over-bought only, so unless or until it embeds it is not likely to attract much Smart Money buying at this level - perhaps at a pullback. This is not to say prices can't go higher. They can. Price is currently at the 62% retrace level. It could go to 78.6% after time, particularly if the wave formation is part of a triangle. One should note that the C wave did not undercut the prior weekly low - which is one sign of a triangle.
Current Up Wave Since C
Feedback is still requested.
Have an excellent rest of the Juneteenth Stock Market Holiday,
TraderJoe
This is great TJ. I guess only comment I have is where does this count fit in the bigger picture?
ReplyDeleteYou'll have to wait for the weekend for that. Check back. TJ.
DeleteThanks TJ!
DeleteHi TJ. I'm a daily reader of your blog and I have been following it since 2018. Thank you! I rarely post comments but since you specifically requested feedback, here is my POV with some food for thought.
ReplyDeleteIt seems like you're balancing the needs of traders vs. learners that visit your blog which is understandable. Off the cuff reaction, I really like the new structure. The interactions with you and your responses to questions has taught me to view your counts in the context of Ira Epstein and 8-fold method. They sort of become second nature over time. My trade screen setup on Thinkorswim includes all the technical indicators I need to apply these guidelines. The trader in me loves the new structure but I'm concerned that learning part may suffer. To me, the real value of this blog is the process and discipline you apply in measuring and counting Elliot Waves. Everyone else on the internet are "wave slappers" and the concept of degree violation is non-existent. The real understanding and a feel for probabilities that inform my trading stops comes from the sentiment and conviction in your blog as you talk about alternatives, conundrums, invalidations etc. There are literally hundreds of nuggets in this blog and I've listed some examples below. By the way, the first one below deserves to be featured next to the Eight-Fold Method.
In summary, love the new format but maybe consider showing this level of detail only once or twice a week while the other days are "business as usual" posts that capture whatever flows out of your brain. It's all goodness.
A few examples of notable posts.
1) https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2015/11/paraphrase-of-ira-epsteins-rules-for.html
2) https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2018/04/careful-of-meat-grinder.html
3) https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2015/10/principle-of-equivalence.html
4) https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2018/12/old-year-neely-style.html
" To me, the real value of this blog is the process and discipline you apply in measuring and counting Elliot Waves. Everyone else on the internet are "wave slappers" and the concept of degree violation is non-existent. " Absolutely. AND ... very nice summary of older posts that mostly predate my time here. So I have some catch up to do now. Also appreciating those who seldom post much for stepping in this time around. I'm sure TJ appreciates that also.
DeleteHello TJ, I am an "always reader but never commenter" on your blog. As you are specifically asking for it, am I providing a bit of feedback this time.
ReplyDeleteI am reading your blog to see your Elliott wave counts, plus the explanation why you choose a specific count. Regularly, when you post a count on a short term chart I scroll to recent posts to see how this short time count fits in the longer term count. My interest is mostly in charts that have 6 months or more covered on the horizontal axis.
I am not really interested in commentary on technical indicators such as moving averages, resistance and support levels, etc. Unless they influence your wave counting and the choices you make.
Please continue writing your blog!
This is a much better format, in my opinion
ReplyDeleteTJ, I want to publish this before your weekend work and see how I do. I have CL in a x triangle after some type of funky w from 123.68.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/qP7CLyL
Algorithm at 5499.99 Spx :)
ReplyDeleteI think gold is in the 4th wave conundrum for the summer.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/6dhmWiQ
TJ,
ReplyDeleteI am a daily reader of your blog probably since 2015 and I don't post too much but have in the past and at times been way off (chicken scratch I think is one word you described it) and sometimes spot on. Your work and dedication to this blog is well beyond anything I have seen in regards to Elliot wave and your explanation on techniques is well thought out and always backed up with the rules. The new format that you proposed seems adequate and I encourage you to hold others who post on this blog to post their charts in a similar manner. That way the discussion of wave counting can continue and if someone posts a different chart such as one based on RSI they can give detailed reasons on why they may think the count should be different or have confluence.
Additionally I agree with another reader TJ above with the notable posts.
Thank you for doing this blog and thank you for all the time you put into this.
TJChuck
Welcome, and thanks for saying! TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: now a 1.618 wave down. Let's see if we get a true fourth and fifth wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uvi2ScLW/
So far, it is an 'outside-day' lower. Let's see if that is maintained through the close.
TJ
TJ, I just had a thought. Have you considered changing your featured post to something that introduces the purpose and objective of your blog, how best to use it, and ground rules? It can also include guidelines and links to other posts such as the Eight Fold Method, Ira's rules, etc. The readings in the featured blog are the recommend "prerequisites". In essence, the revised featured post would have all the essentials a new joiner would need to get a running start.
ReplyDeleteGood idea. If possible, add another section to the sidebar for Notable posts, where key topics are explored like those you linked to earlier (with subheadings). One might be a link to the most recent higher degree chart for those who want to see where the local action could be going. Or, a link to the next best Alternate Counts (at local degree, or higher degree). Meaning, make better use of the sidebar to answer Q's with work you've already posted.
Delete@TJ & pedro; your suggestion has best implemented now - as best as the blog operator allows with the tools provided. There is now a "Featured Post" with the Purpose and Ground Rules. It also contains some key links. Thanks, TJ.
DeleteI drew this triangle in last night on the NQ 90 minute chart. We shall see
ReplyDeletehttps://postimg.cc/9DVF8yTv
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ