After three daily lower ES closes in-a-row, the ES futures have traded largely sideways with three higher closes in-a-row. With price above the 18-day SMA, there is as yet nothing overtly bearish on the chart. And today was technically an outside-day-up, so we have to watch for two full days to see whether its low is exceeded or not.
 |
| ES Futures - Daily - Sideways |
But the regular calculation of the daily slow stochastic did lose its embedded status and is now just over-bought again. This normally favors price and the 18-day SMA coming together again. But price really needs to break out of the range for better local trend determination.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
W2 up of the first wave down
ReplyDeleteThis is the idea of an X1 wave from 5267. 3,4, and 5 should be bigger but had to get them on the chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/ivf58os
Reminder in equities: today is the last day of the month, and of the quarter. Often this sees 'window-dressing' and/or preparation for the possible first-of-the-month inflows.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Thanks Tj.
DeleteSPY 2-Hr: SPY has gone over the high. And now we are clearly getting the profit-taking, window-dressing. It is 'possible' it made a tiny expanding diagonal (shown on the chart) in going over the high. Or that 'could be' just three zigzags.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NXL53xZc/
So utmost caution and flexibility here. The Neely 0 - ii trend line and the RSI say we have just had a wave four, or part of it. If this the top, then a completion can be counted. If not, wave iv, 'may' continue as a barrier triangle or wave v may progress as a diagonal into next week.
TJ
Great post TJ!
DeleteHow is it that you manage to express my same thoughts and opinions, although in a much more complete and well-communicated fashion? 😏
This is the chart which I had labeled, just before I read your post, above:
https://postimg.cc/JyGbPLrh
..just nice to have some confirmation. TJ.
DeleteSPY 2-hr: opening gap has been filled. Chart below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9uNWti6g/
TJ
that looks right TJ
DeleteSPY 5-min: we have a new Make-Or-Break for an impulse with an x1 wave. Note wave 2 is less than 38.2% and wave 3 is currently shorter than 1. This is speculative, so care needed. The M-O-B is 547.27 in SPY; overlap not allowed.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6DHEo4Nj/
Alt: has to be just a-b-c down at this time.
TJ
..as far as I can tell, wave x1 counts as an expanding diagonal which then converts to an impulse. TJ.
DeleteA stock I follow is MA Mastercard. Can you get a more perfect Elliott pattern? Reminds me of the 1987 top....past experience does not necessarily repeat but I did nibble at some puts this morning.
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/MpctMVwz/Screenshot-187.jpg
Pls pay attention. The way you label 2 is w-x-y as below. There are no three-wave c-waves. C is 'always' a :5, whether it is an impulse or an ending diagonal.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/h3eh329r/
TJ
Thanks TJ, you are a excellent teacher. I appreciate the way you help us.
DeleteWelcome. TJ.
DeleteThis 28 day analog showed up in 1929 and 1987. I have no idea why it appears,but today is the 28th day in the Dow 30. Will it play out? I have no idea. Typically the market reaches a low 54 days from the top. Fibonacci??
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/SRb1hGtZ/Screenshot-188.jpg
Very interesting! (especially for Fibonacci mystics) 😇
DeleteThanks for posting.
SPY 5-min: now has a lower low. Can go to the length of 3 if it wants.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fPkW6ZSc/
TJ
SPY 5-min: getting another extension down. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: at this point I can only count a,b,c down. Need to see what happens with the first-of-the-month money. It 'may' go on to form the first larger wave of a downward diagonal, but there are the triangle & larger upward diagonal possibilities too.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zY2as3Hm/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete