On the SPY 1-Hr chart, the fourth wave iv became a little more complex today. The channel was dropped a bit. There are enough waves and a slight new higher high to argue for a completed count. It is now a question of if the extensions are done.
We'll see what Wednesday brings in terms of the CPI and the FOMC results. Have an excellent rest of the evening.
TraderJoe
So i was 11 points; iii was 11.5 points; v so far, 3 points. Could v go 11 points? Also, i is 5 bars; v is already 6 bars. How much additional time do you expect for v? Could v go longer than iii in points and/or time?
ReplyDeleteLooks like we will get our 11 points.
DeleteThanks Tj.
ReplyDeleteweekly diagonal APPL..?
https://invst.ly/1561k-
I put it up to the EWO test and it looks pretty good but I am a little long on candles at 220.
ReplyDeleteES 2-Hr: nice CPI report starts to fill out the channel. The Fibo ruler shows where v = i. If that busts the next is 0.618 x net [ i-to-iii ]. I'll follow-up on that later.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tRjJzDFi/
The wave iv low is now a critical marker. It also occurs to me in the ES futures that if the Covid-19 low was ~2,179 (Fibo 21 x 100) it might make sense for the high to be around 5,500 (Fibo 55 x 100). But, we'll see. The market would have a lot of reversing to have to do, and nothing says the up wave is over, yet. But 'one way or another' this is definitely a (3)rd wave - whether diagonal or not.
TJ
Thanks TJ. Spx 5425 is 33% up from October 27, 2023 low of 4103.(7 .5 months) First interest rate cut today expected for .25% which may trigger a top.
DeleteIf the Fed cut today I would be shocked. But hey it's already bubblicious.
DeleteNo chance of a rate cut today. In fact, rate cuts are increasingly unlikely this year unless the economic data falls out of bed. Powell has already made references to enthusiastic valuations, adding fuel to the fire (rate cuts) complicates his already difficult task.
DeleteES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen: wave x⑤ is 'already' the extended wave in the sequence. So, we have an extended fifth wave. It has already gone to 1.272. They 'often' go to 1.618, but not required.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/K23Dtjty/
TJ
Feels like a "got to own them" wave!
ReplyDeleteDow is really starting to look like a counter trend wave 2 up.
ReplyDeleteReminder: FOMC rate decision scheduled for the top of the hour, followed by Chair Powell's press conference (including dot plots). TJ.
ReplyDeleteFOMC leaves rates unchanged (according to ForexFactory). TJ.
DeleteThis cat and mouse game with Powell is getting old.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: this morning's large up wave was overlapped downward. If the wave is not done, then perhaps we are getting a triangle fourth or a diagonal. The alt count is shown in red. I'm ok with either as they wouldn't change anything.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QdpsSr9k/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ