This monthly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart speaks for itself at present. As a wave-counter, I am just being patient to see if it does play out as a "too-far, too fast" wave with a diagonal at the end.
The larger degrees seem to fit well. A log chart is used due to the timespan. The EMA-34 has nice touch points, and the PPO is used instead of the MACD - again due to the long-term nature of the chart.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
With that deep retrace we maybe just had as a four and the larger count, I would think we should be on failure watch.
ReplyDeleteThat was a near perfect .618 retrace on ES with two equal legs on a 30 min.
DeleteSPY 5-min: there appears to be a five-wave-sequence down, where the fifth wave is the extended wave in the sequence. And now into a retrace.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yzkCaT7W/
Still, it's not likely we will get a more confident count until over the high, or under the low.
TJ
Getting suspicious ..
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/J0aqsJIt/
TJ
Suspicious it was (first-of-the-month money coming in), and suspicious it remains. The extended fifth wave sequence is 'almost always' retraced 62%, and often much deeper, per the EWP.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/AG8uZNiD/
The count shown is still subject to correction. There is no significant proof of it except the potential channel, and expanding diagonal shown.
TJ
ES 1-Hr: stuck in the middle of declining tops, and higher lows. Market needs to choose. More economic news at the top of the hour.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yozOcl1n/
TJ
That triangle caught my eye as well. b of 1 of some diagonal.
DeleteInability to sustain an upside move after long tails on Friday candles atypical. This may be telling us something...
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: more of the same, but some fractals can be watched.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Vxn1WsQD/
TJ
That triangle could not look better on the 10 min EWO with 150 candles
DeleteSmall Caps ETF IWM and the index already took out lows from last Friday.
ReplyDeleteCould be triangle pointing down as well!
ReplyDeleteFirst green (up) fractal broken higher. TJ.
ReplyDeleteNow second green up fractal broken higher. TJ.
DeleteSPY 1-Hr : 'both' cash and futures indicate a 90% wave up, without going over the high (yet). Could be 'b' wave of a Flat, or next impulse higher. 'Maybe' a 'c' wave down takes place on news - maybe not. High uncertainty, so patience, calm and flexibility needed.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YY8B7iym/
Very difficult internal count at present with lots of overlaps.
TJ
I am still patiently waiting for an ending structure to show up.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/1XLEXBb
..plausible (but not required). Let's see how it goes. It would likely need a first strong reversal at 78 - 82% of the prior wave. TJ.
DeleteThe NYSE is reminding everyone that it has the right to cancel trades owing to market "glitches". This is not good. Are they also going to restore positions where stop-losses triggered an exit with catastrophic losses? Notice how they were silent on that.
ReplyDeleteSPY 1-hr: has gone over the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/W3jzhHzc/
TJ
NQ 4-hr: NQ futures over the prior high, too. Not ES, yet. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Yes. EW still matters. See tomorrow's post. I didn't get anything incorrect that I can see. In fact, just the opposite - I sketched out for you what should happen in this post.
ReplyDeletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2024/05/mind-interferes.html
I wrote "Mind Interferes" because people like yourself - trying to tie fundamentals to the market (rather than emotions) are allowing their mind to interfere rather than learning some more of the details of wave counting. Learn .. learn .. learn.
TJ.
These kinds of throw their hands up in the air, I give up comments are very helpful to those who are paying attention.
ReplyDelete