There are no changes to the SPY 1-Hr count at this time. The wave is acting a bit quirky. Look over the chart below and I'll comment briefly.
There is a way to count that blue wave iv as a flat wave. And it would be at the prior wave ④. And this would make some sense with the break of the Neely 0-ii trend line. Wave ④ broke it once but recaptured it by the close. Wave iv has now broken it (the Neely 0 - ii trend line) and has several hourly closes below it. This wave iv would now show alternation with wave ii.
What's quirky are now 1) the channel is a 'best fit' channel, and not a strict Elliott parallel. And wave three has not exceeded an upper channel boundary. This suggests weakness in the wave. And 2) today was a very strained wave as well. So, perhaps we are now into a longer triangle ivth wave or into a diagonal wave v. Very difficult to tell for sure.
Have an excellent rest of the evening.
TraderJoe
I would favor a EDT here
ReplyDeleteTechnicals deteriorating and the VIX is diverging. Fear of missing out is slowing. But the Fed always seems to keep it going.
Another option is a truncated fifth.
DeleteTJ, would you say that it is a degree violation that (iv) on above chart is deeper than the very shallow bigger degree wave 2 Jan correction?
ReplyDeleteNo, definitely not. Wave minuet (iv) is smaller than the prior larger degree wave in the same direction, minute-iv, circle-iv, as below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Bn4hoAYk/
You are making the error of counting "backwards in time" and trying to compare all waves in a set 'after' they have occurred. Degrees are counted "forwards in time" only, as they occur, and comparisons are made on that basis. Once that larger degree minute-iv, circle-iv is made, and it is the same degree as minute-ii, circle-ii the subsequent down waves need only be smaller than it.
TJ
I see, thanks!
ReplyDeleteInteresting day BTC down,banks down, AAPL ath last leg up? Has the Dow topped? Not sure.
ReplyDeleteNQ 1-hr: futures have a new all-time-high and qualify for the fifth wave. Other indexes and NYSE internals lag. TJ
ReplyDeleteDon't worry about that black swan flying above Florida it is harmless.
ReplyDeleteThere is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.