The SPY 1-hr chart is below. It reflects the most expensive SPY in history: wonderful for a long-term investment - eh? I though investors were supposed to 'buy low and sell high?'. Well, we shall see. The Elliott Wave count is shown on the chart. Nothing has changed.
We had suggested that wave (iv) in this chart, and the ES 4-hr futures ended at the May 31 low. It did. That is confirmed by today's new highs. The upward count looks like an impulse wave in a channel underway. There may have been a "running second wave" to augur for the gap-up, and strength that followed. We don't know that wave iii is done yet. It does not have to be, and it doesn't quite look like it.
As of the cash close, the ES futures had not quite gone over the prior high, but they could. If wave ii is a running zigzag, when we get there, maybe wave iv will be a flat or triangle for alternation. Time will tell.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Investors today mostly follow a "passive investing" approach which just means automatic purchases without a second thought as to valuation or other measure. It's worked well so far it would seem.
ReplyDeleteRight on. So, here's a very true short story about my uncle. He was 'passive investing' in the stock of GE. It represented 'the best' of American companies and it paid a healthy regular dividend. There's nothing wrong with that. It was truly 'the best of the best'. At one point he was 'riding high' on this investment and had money for trips, cruises, wine, luxurious dinners, the really good life. And he 'genuinely' recommended this strategy to people he loved. Buy GE, you won't do better with any other investment.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/22HMwcem/
As he was approaching old age in the 2010's, this strategy nearly cost him his entire net worth. If it weren't for a small pension, and some assets like a nice house, he would have gone under.
Now, I know about diversification. And I know at certain times one 'diversifies' into cash paying a more competitive yield, too.
TJ
Great story. The "funny" thing about diversification is that nowadays, at least when buying the market cap weighted indices, the passive indexer is really only buying a handful of stocks.
DeleteSo then, to finish the story, because of the investing success in 1998 my uncle invited me and my parents on an all-expense-paid Mediterranean cruise, to which we, of course, said yes. One day, out in the sun and the sea, my uncle caught up with me and sincerely suggested how this success could come my way, too. "Just buy some GE. Just buy a little every month or as much as you feel comfortable with. It's a great company, and it pays a good dividend. You know they make airplane engines, locomotive engines, MRI scanners & X-rays for hospitals. You can't go wrong with a product-line like that. Very diversified, and the economy will always need those products. Health care is expanding, and their dynamite CEO Jack Welch is on all the news programs, He's a very sought-after guest." "Wow," I said, "that's pretty impressive". My uncle continued, "And even more, we hear that now they are going to expand their "GE Financial Unit. That should mean even more business".
Delete"Geepers," I remember saying, "that's a lot". My uncle was so sincere, and you could tell, he only meant well when he wanted me to get in on the gains.
I never did buy even a single share of GE. Not for any reason. But in 1985 I do remember having read The Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter for the first time. It described certain aspects of the markets - like things progressing in cycles, and that no market likely grows straight to the sky. I've read it a few times since.
It's hard to believe that the undertaking of GE Capital, and the subsequent "financial engineering" that "neutron Jack" undertook was the beginning of a very long and slippery slope for the original company - which was delisted from the Dow after the 2008/9 financial crisis.
Lots of things have happened since then, but there are lessons in there. Luckily, I lived through those with no ill effects. End of story.
TJ
An a = c move on es gets us to the upper channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/8ZSiRRO
So, I can't rule this out because, i is smaller in price and time than 1, and ii is smaller in price and time than 2. In other words, they nest.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fAcVPvfu/
Further, look where the EWO is deepest. Look where it has a hump after that, then a plateau, and a further high.
I'm not saying you're incorrect because this wave being (v) 'could' form a diagonal. Still, the triangle did not exit near the apex, and one should count with the impulse until overlap rules out counting like an impulse.
TJ
Thx for the response. Adding this to my collection titled "could the triangle be a running correction".
DeleteHere's a mid-day update. 'Looks like' a small degree fourth wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9R97bZL1/
TJ
SPY 5-min: here's an excellent real-time example of "Diagonal converts to non-overlapping impulse, verified by a subsequent five-waves down". Where's that 'deep retrace' of a diagonal Mr. Bob?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/oYuCmPGi/
TJ
ES 1-Hr: after a new high overnight, the NFP report has moved prices down to 38% of a likely 3rd wave. Watching later for overlaps, etc., but still counting as impulse for now.
ReplyDeleteTJ
P.S. because of the higher high overnight, today is 'currently' an outside reversal day, down at the moment, and might become a 'key reversal'; but we'll see. These things can be whippy. TJ.
DeleteSPY goes green - whippy it is. TJ.
DeleteSTRAIGHT UP !!!
ReplyDelete5439 spx was given to you last year
Deleteonly 70 points to go
DeleteGoogle
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Thanks for flagging potential policy or legal violations on Google. We’ve received your report under the following abuse category: harassment.
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>> From me: you are to 'cease and desist' from posting on this site, or I will begin to explore legal remedies from keeping you doing so. Second notice.
TJ
so " harrassment " is defined as
Deleteshowing you that your analysis was incorrect
and mine was the correct analysis
where do you see that definition ?
DeleteGoogle
Hi,
Thanks for flagging potential policy or legal violations on Google. We’ve received your report under the following abuse category: harassment.
The Google Team
>> From me: you are to 'cease and desist' from posting on this site, or I will begin to explore legal remedies from keeping you doing so. Third notice.
TJ
From the Legal Information Institute of Cornell University.
DeleteHarassment refers to words or behavior that threatens, intimidates, or demeans a person. Harassment is unwanted, uninvited, and unwelcome and causes nuisance, alarm, or substantial emotional distress without any legitimate purpose.
Your actions are 1) demeaning, 2) unwanted, 3) uninvited, 4) unwelcome and 5) and nuisance without any legitimate purpose related to a wave-counting site.
You ARE to 'CEASE & DESIST'. Final Notice.
TJ
Possible ending diagonal?
ReplyDelete((b)) very shallow as you´ve mentioned TJ. So maybe more plausible as a B and not 2.
https://invst.ly/154fon
No, not likely. There are no overlaps to require counting as an a,b,c; nor are there any length violations to prevent counting as anything other than an extended first wave, with minute-five less than minute-three less than minute-one.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/154g7d
TJ
are we forming ED from morning selloff for 3rd wave
Delete@erilbo92 Good effort, I actually prefer that look.
DeleteOh, I agree. Due to the short wave for minute-ii, I originally said I could see it as a 'b' wave in the W-X-Y count. But, when overlap did not occur, the alternate had to be taken to avoid 'incorrect counting'. So, instead of W-X-Y, I think the up count has just reverted to A-B-C to (3) and I indicated so in prior posts. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ