Monday, June 17, 2024

Three And One

The ES 2-Weekly Chart with about 114 total candles for the "wave-of-interest" has three price Fibs and one time Fib either here or "due".


 The three price Fibs are:

  1. (3) = 0.786 x (1)
  2. C of (3) = 1.272 x A
  3. Alt (B) = 1.618 x Alt (A)
The time Fib is (3) = (1) or thereabouts. The current up wave is labeled as a third wave as there is as yet no proof that the up wave is concluded, even though we can count it so. Further, the Elliott Wave Oscillator has a near-equal high at this location which is often a sign of a third wave.

Today saw all-day buying from the cash open until about 14:00 ET. Price traded up into the upper daily Bollinger Band and then made a very small down move from there. Likely some of this was due to the "Nightmare Rollover" we wrote about in a previous post. Today saw only a pretty-even split in the advance-decline line, and more new lows than new highs.

Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe

13 comments:

  1. Here's a snapshot from this morning: from the ES 30-min intraday wave-counting screen.

    https://invst.ly/158v69

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  2. ES 5-min: so that c wave down was an ending diagonal which has been exceeded higher. Now, the question is whether that was enough of a fourth wave or not.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/OmD0b2SM/

    Or do we go straight over the high.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  3. This is my count if the whole speculative shenanigans is coming to an end.

    https://imgur.com/eeN8HDp

    ReplyDelete
  4. SPY 10-min: cash has the new high.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/YqTbVAtL/

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. l think the circle a of triangle made a lower lower than c of previous wave

      Delete
    2. I think that is ok in this structure.

      Delete
  5. Thanks Tj. On November 3rd 2023 there was a big hush around triggering of Zweig Breadth Thrust , which was 18th since 1945 and spx has been higher 100% in one year time. Likes of Ira, Tom McClellan and Zerohedge posted it. But I saw most EW guys ignored it. Not trying to put you or anyone on stand but why does EW has a one side approach. Why it has not changed with times?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think TJ's counts where not in conflict with that thrust at all. See 12/23/23 post.

      Delete
    2. I know that. What I am suggesting that EW rules are so strict that it misses tje global picture.

      Delete
    3. @manu .. you are once again completely confusing "wave-counting" with "trading". I have addressed this issue many, many times in the past and people keep ignoring it.

      https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2015/11/paraphrase-of-ira-epsteins-rules-for.html

      The above link provides my paraphrase of Ira Epstein's publicly published guidelines for trading. Quite simply, if the daily ES closing price is above the 18-day SMA, the bias is "up". If price is below the 18-day SMA, the bias is "down". Price has closed 'above' the 18-day SMA every-single-day since 3 May. It is now 18 Jun. I just don't know how to make it any simpler than that.

      Will you read the guidelines and understand them, or not? This "bias up" signal also fired on 2 Nov 2023 - a day BEFORE the ZBT. And it stayed in place through Dec 2023. I am 'not' here to tell you how to 'trade'. I am 'just' counting the waves as best I can. Please 'stop' confusing the two. Why do people keep making me repeat this?

      TJ

      Delete
    4. @manu & all others - also see tomorrow's blog post.
      TJ

      Delete
  6. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete