The stock market is now showing confusing signs. In the daily chart of the NQ futures (left pane), prices are showing a lower daily low, and not a new daily high.
NQ vs ES Futures - 1 Day - Mixed Messages |
It is difficult to reconcile these patterns at the moment. I don't want to guess at this time as further study is needed.
The market over the last three days up can be counted as most of all of an impulse wave as we showed in this chart of the cash SPY.
There is still more room for wave (v) if it wants it as it is not as long as wave (iii), but wave (iii) is shorter than extended wave (i) in the above count.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Corn Futures: review the reasoning.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5CkT4Yf1/
There should not be two diagonals right next to each other. One should be at lower or higher degree. This way the diagonal as v is a lower degree than (a).
TJ
I think the other way works as well. The expanding diagonal would be at lower degree. (a) of 1 of the larger diagonal.
DeleteBut then what? That diagonal would be leading and the timing of the fifth wave might be off.
DeleteInteresting, thanks! A few add'l observations on the (c) leg -
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/5apl1545epfnepf/Corn%2528c%2529.PNG/file
They both got some things not to like. The diagonal in the v position has taken out the EWO high on three which is not good.
DeleteWe shall see.
Gold (4hr) - current status
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/xq41oap458d162c/Gold4hr.PNG/file
Bull flags abound. Nothing ambiguous about that pattern imho...
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: here is the wedge count with MACD divergences.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/loYPzuww/
TJ
The signs aren't confusing. Both charts are showing the same thing. It's either a 3 wave move down from 11/22 to 12/3, followed by a 3 wave rally back up from 12/3 to present....or it's a completed flat from 11/22 to 12/20.
ReplyDeletelol .. how is 'either, or' not confusing. There are other possibilities as well.
DeleteTJ
SPY (30m) - by my measure, (iii) has now become the shortest, negating count.
ReplyDeleteAn impulse up in the ES, does not necessarily imply a finished wave (except in the case of truncation). Perhaps the SPY completed it's fifth wave up earlier, this morning and is now making a Flat wave as part of it's next correction.
DeleteThe wave is certainly impulsive looking in both ES & SPY.
TJ
Certainly possible. I would think we would be seeing the same on ES?
DeleteIt’s looking less likely to be forming a triangle, so 4960 here we come. But the internals are weak. We are setting up for a nasty pullback early next year IMHO.
DeleteAAPL chart looks more bearish with this rising wedge than the indexes right now, maybe it's a hint?
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/wyxb1
Just my thoughts. BTC is likely headed for a wave two top at 52Kish. So we should see a top today in the Dow or close near top tick. I think wave 2 top in the Dow is near. FWI
ReplyDeleteOf course we could head higher next week,but fewer and fewer stocks are in the hunt here.
Merry Christmas to TJ and all the other contributors.
Thx 458..and Merry Christmas to you, too!
DeleteTJ
I updated my QQQ idea. 402 would be about 78% retrace other option is flat if QQQ keeps going up. Also FVE is showing negative for SPY and it's higher high. If markets flops is gold ready for a break out? GW thanks for acknowledgement. 2nd link is for Markos Katsanos and the FVE indicator.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/njTTP339/
https://mkatsanos.com/finite-volume-elements/
NDX Chart 90 minute
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/mZv21576/Screenshot-50.png
The NDX charts only deviation from most major top patterns ie 1929,1987 where the analog was 1 down and A and B and the the a,b and the c of the C to complete the top,was the diagonal down for the wave one. IMHO
ReplyDeleteDow 1 minute at the close...
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/tgt74FrJ/Screenshot-51.png
Yeah that was very curious!
DeleteIt seems notable that the Nasdaq, and QQQ comprised of the big market leaders/performers have still only made lower lows and lower highs. Also might be a good time to remind again that the VIX is at 18, not 8.
ReplyDeleteTJ,
ReplyDeleteI modified your count in a 3 day SPY chart showing what I think is the end of the B wave or bull market.
Also a Dow chart with a possible 28 day analog in play. If the analog is in fact in play we should at some point waterfall down. The Dow chart also shows George Lindsey's 3 peaks and a domed house.
If the Dow should make a higher high then the 28 day and Lindsey's formation is moot.But The Z wave top is in force till it ends.
The market is so fractured here and Japan's pattern looks to be ready to come down,Thursday should be the final top. IMHO
SPY 3 day
https://i.postimg.cc/2SFcsxv5/Screenshot-54.png
Dow daily
https://i.postimg.cc/zGj7tGZb/Screenshot-52.png
Happy holidays TJ.
ReplyDelete..same to you manu!
DeleteTJ
A cursory look at long term Crude -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ouybu9zbn0btq0c/CursoryCL.PNG/file
A wonderful (football filled?) Christmas to all !
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day. Happy Holidays!
ReplyDeleteTJ