Yesterday, it was clearly stated that we didn't know the short term direction of the market - especially in the face of the Payroll Employment Report. We said there were ways to count higher, and ways to count lower. Appropriately, today did both. After an initial rally on the payroll report, when the cash market opened, prices began to sell off and the selling continued throughout the day until about an hour from the close when prices got very choppy, and then headed up a bit to finish the day.
As you can see from the chart, prices reversed from up to down right about the level of the 9-day SMA (or the half-cycle), and then headed lower to make a new daily low. In the process, price traced out a 114 pt range! A volatile market.
The new lower daily low keeps the swing-line down, and under the 18-day SMA, so the current trend remains down, and the bias remains down, but the daily slow stochastic is also over-sold.
Price couldn't quite tag the 100-day SMA and while the futures have not closed as of this writing, price is flirting with closing near the lower daily Bollinger Band.
In terms of the Elliott Wave count we presented an idea for a contracting diagonal downward in the comments for the prior post. You might like to read them if you have not. But, please remember, these are lower probability patterns that must form correctly in every detail. We're simply not there yet.
Have a good start to the evening and the weekend.
TraderJoe
Thanks joe
ReplyDeleteWhat is the max for the b wave of 3 down if the count is correct? Which prior wave up from the ath is the degree setting wave? All of 2 or just b of 2? Thanks
Shouldn't it be about 8 points which was distance of a and c of 2?
ReplyDeleteI'm asking what is the higher degree b wave which sets the violation? Shouldn't it be less than the second wave up?
ReplyDeleteI will preface the reply with the absolute tentativeness of the count. The DOW and the ES are not currently doing the same thing, so utmost caution, patience, calm and flexibility are needed right now.
DeleteSecond, there is a way in the ES that 'could have' made minute ((iii)) down already. See chart below. It would just be a very messy 'c' wave and hard to count. See chart below.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/n6qHZHOC/
Next, yes, if there is a (b) wave up it should be limited to the length of minute ((ii)), or less, both in price and time.
And, for a 'leading' diagonal wave minute ((v)) 'must' make a new low. No truncation allowed in leading diagonal. Truncation allowed in ending diagonal.
TJ
Thanks TJ and GW for your updates. I have no idea how high the VIX will go, but it closes above 40 only 3% of the time. Not very good odds.
ReplyDeleteXLY/XLP (2wks) - A closely watched ratio -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/c2ezqa8mdjf8psl/keyratio.PNG/file
SPX (wkly) - higher/lower degree models, closer look - (click to sharpen)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/drlfg84e7c1y2nd/closerlook.PNG/file
I'll just suggest that if you really want to persue that line of reasoning, you'd need to show the internal waves inside of iii. The 'expanding trend lines' in what is supposed to be a 'third-of-a-third' raise an eyebrow.
DeleteTJ
BTC (2day) - if interested -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/tb6bn43sxwpuzgq/BTC2d.PNG/file
JNK/TLT (wkly) divergent -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/76usr1nf8tiqcfw/JNKTLTwk.PNG/file
Just fyi - according to The Eight-Fold-Path-Method in 2-Hr GOLD, this commodity may be getting ready for a rally. It's at least worth drawing a Fibonacci ruler on the decline to see what percent is retraced.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/P7C0K9jz/
Price is now again outside of the declining parallel, and the Elliott Wave Oscillator is on a divergence.
TJ
Interesting. ((iii)) = ((i)) x 3 plus a nose, and ((v)) = ((i)) x 1.618. Overall waves ((iii)) - ((v)) = ((i)) x 3.618.
Delete..such distorted wave relationships 'typically' only happen within larger triangles and diagonals. That is why I have repeatedly said, "making a 2.618 wave is very 'difficult'". I have never said it was 'impossible'. A lot depends on the context of the larger wave.
DeleteTJ
SPY (dly) Lower channel retrace ?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/70ntdj0vhtscfvv/lowerchannel.PNG/file
I'm lost on how you are selecting the anchor points for the Fibonacci ruler. Is this a scheme used by someone else? An explanation would be aprreciated.
DeleteTJ
👍 It’s looking probable. Open gaps are targets of traders.
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Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/qhb2o3azjojbrnd/extensions.PNG/file
Interesting that the Dow futures (YM) have hit the lower channel boundary depending on exactly how you define it.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/aJh7rGi3/
After hitting, they appear to have bounced a bit.
TJ
..and the NY Composite (NYA) is well-below the lower channel boundary.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/k3wU4OLF/
It really appears to vary based on the basket of stocks being looked at.
TJ
This last wave down from Dec. 3 looks incomplete. Expecting a lower low.
DeleteGold 3PDh ? [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/6w3wk19idc7mkmw/Gold_3PDh.PNG/file
Good free article from Tom McClellan with some historical context.
ReplyDeleteFree Article
It's worth reading in it's entirety.
TJ
QQQs (2day) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/9khnzg77dkbr6vs/qqqs.PNG/file
December 2nd end of daily post from Real Vision was informative. So if the money supply declines and bonds go up how can we follow that trend?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.realvision.com/shows/daily-briefing/videos/navigating-volatility-should-we-buy-the-dip?source_collection=89dc905231eb407cb2f77327ba8b714d
URA (wkly) - Possible 5 waves up -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/cko37nkzlrc8w06/URAw.PNG/file
Note that this is a "quick and dirty" structure estimate. Add'l tests can be the 0-2 TL (and 2-4 TL if far enough along). Neither of these had an issue as applied here. (fwiw).
DeleteSPXcfd - 4hr - bumped into falling 50ma and has backed off (currently) (between the .382-.50 retraces).
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ