There are just some times when the count is murky, and it is best to say so. This is one of those times. For now lets just refer to some measurements on the daily chart.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Inside Day |
That today was an inside day is not in dispute. After making a 1.618 external retrace, upward, on the September down wave, prices rolled over and overlapped the prior September high, making a 50% retrace on the up wave. Those facts are not in dispute. Further, after closing two consecutive days outside of the lower daily Bollinger Band, prices had 'roughly' only a 3% chance of closing outside of the bands again today - especially with an over-sold daily slow stochastic. So, prices closed inside of the lower band and reset the number of consecutive closes.
Tomorrow is the Payroll Employment report. It is hard to know if the news-reading algo's will try to tag the 18-day SMA ('the line in the sand') or not.
Being in the middle of a range like this with numerous overlaps on the way down is what I call 'no man's land'. There are ways to count lower, and there are ways to count higher. Any lower count requires taking out yesterday's low. Any higher count should at least exceed the 4,700 level - even if it is to make a truncation.
This is a good time to make local counts and see how they work or fail to work. Today's up wave for example seemed to invalidate a nested second wave within a third wave count. A good option remains an expanding diagonal, downward. In that option, then likely price would still come up and tag the 18-day SMA. Another good option - because of the downward overlap on September's high - is a triangle, but there is currently insufficient downward movement yet for that to be fully in play yet.
So, we'll have to try to see where the so-called Smart Money is going with this one and count as best as possible when we recognize what we see.
For now, the daily bias is down, the swing-line is down, and the daily slow stochastic is still over-sold.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
When you have time, it would be nice to see how you would label iwm, the moves over one last year and then the breakout in oct. One is tempted to label it as triangle but i think there is more to it. Would like to learn form you this complicated count. Thks
ReplyDeleteSure looks like run of the mill double ZZ.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/VaRxh3R
XX target is hit.
Deletebad link?
Deletesmaller degree b2 is shown larger in price than supposed larger degree X; seems like a degree definition violation.
DeleteTJ
Thx will check that.
DeleteSPXcfd (2day) - Models perspective (update) - (click to sharpen)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/bbedurpf3myf4nw/ModelsPerspective.PNG/file
👍 thanks. Let’s see if we can get 5 waves off the low.
DeleteSPXcfd (4hr) - Pre-open look
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/zar4hb77kgyo2nh/PreOpen4hr.PNG/file
If we break the low. I will be looking at 4457 area SPX next.
DeleteIFF a new high is made first, before a new low, then I agree with this, as I wrote last night, a larger expanding diagonal downward might be possible.
DeleteTJ
Good morning all. SPY 30-min chart. CAUTION: this wave count is a SUGGESTION ONLY iff a lower low is made before a higher current high. There can easily up counts, as well. Right now, I am only publishing this suggestion because it might explain current wave lengths.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZOWwb7op/
The internals are still very whippy, and price is in 'no man's land' so a high degree of caution, patience and flexibility is required.
TJ
.. in other words minute ((ii)) is larger in price than sub-minuette a, or minuet (b). It seems like this wave should be of a larger degree.
DeleteTJ
QQQ has made a new low and VXN a new high.
DeleteSPY / ES 5-min: qualifies for five non-overlapping waves down with extended first wave, and wave ((3)) at 0.618, as below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EutFlyhP/
TJ
..short-term chart update with more explanatory labels.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nb1qMYvO/
This morning's up wave was necessary for ((ii)) to definitely exceed the lengths of some other waves. Count is still tentative, and only lower local lows or higher local highs can bring a little more certainty to it.
TJ
SPXcfd (4hr) - from a 3/10 perspective, this move down this morning looks to be an anti (pb), with further upside to come. (fwiw).
ReplyDelete..what do you mean by 3/10? thx in advance.
DeleteTJ
Sorry, should have been more descriptive- 3/10/16 osc. (macd variation)
DeleteAlthough the decline was heavily overlapped, the S&P took 7 bars (4H) to drop 245 points. On the fully linear rise, it took 24 bars (4H) to rise the same 245 points.
DeleteFrom Neely's point of view, this is a bearish symptom. It ain't no rule, just a hint.
SPY 5-min; new low below the 12/1 low; not ES yet.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 30-min; just made the new low.
DeleteTJ
flat in progress?
DeleteForgot to add - 4hr.
DeleteSPY 5-min, in the very short run, I would watch this channel as new lows are being made.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2fK4nCeC/
TJ
The thrust down from triangle has reached the length of ((B)).
DeleteSPY 5-min; up out of channel; suggests to look for flat or expanding diagonal c wave. The diagonal c wave has a clean invalidation above 4,535.50.
DeleteTJ
Hi TJ,
ReplyDeleteWas wondering, is a W-X-Y-X-Z (with markets currently in the 2nd X wave) from the March '20 low now out the window or is this still a possibility?
Thanks,
Andrew
I think it is less likely because that would make the primary ((B)) wave even larger in price.
DeleteTJ
There is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ