The VIX is currently at 18, not at 9. For this reason, one might expect more whippy price action than normal. The ES futures made a marginal new all-time-high today. The SPY and the SPX cash did not. The ES 4-hr futures chart is shown below, along with the potential for further volatile price movement.
It is entirely possible that a barrier triangle is being formed near the highs, but it is way too early to call it such. In one such count, the December low is the minute ((a)) wave of such a triangle and today's high would be the minute ((b)) wave of such a triangle.
In today's intraday price movement there appeared to be five waves down from the high. This might be an 'a' wave of the minute ((c)) leg down of the triangle. We don't know for sure, confirmatory price action will be needed. Certainly, there was MACD divergence again at the high.
Have an excellent start to your evening.
TraderJoe
GW, I put up 2 post on yesterday's blog if ET will publish. QQQ/SPY and Kellogg, nice catch!
ReplyDeletedone .. sorry for the delay. Dinner date ;)
DeleteTJ
ET, No worries sorry I don't post during market hours. I like your barrier triangle idea. Maybe the AO is the key give a way as it's near the 0 line. Q's have a very similar AO pattern.
DeleteThanks joe
ReplyDeleteThis may be long shot, but I but sure we saw impulse down today, and that would head to us being in 1 2 I Ii upward. We will see. Open tomorrow they going to take it to highs or lows. I'm looking at degree changes on the down wave in Es today and it's not looking up with impulse
It's morning. I waited to reply. It appears to be a grindy one with v = i, per the Fibonacci ruler shown.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TFnvEbEg/
I'll guess the overnight lower lows were not in your scenario.
TJ
ES - what about a expanded flat from the 13th. Target in the 4576 area?
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: FED lows were exceeded lower. Triangle or flat appears more likely.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 4-Hr: target 1 for a triangle at 61.8% retrace has been met at 4.590; target 2 for a triangle is at 78.6% or 4,546 (ES).
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPXcfd - Apparent ext. 5th
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/7sc69v9nldisu95/Extended5.PNG/file
Whippy right you are TJ. The only bearish count I see is 1 down and a B wave low this morning and a C in progress for the cash SPX. Truly a fractured market that will get in gear for a historic bear market. IMHO
ReplyDeleteThe corrective wave should finish in 1 hour or so then another 3rd wave to start.should finish the day on the low. If this does happen would be a extremely rare event for a expiration. IMHO
DeleteQuick question - for a contracting triangle, would you see the thrust as having ended by retracing to overlap 'e' or would you prefer to see 'a' overlapped for further assurance?
ReplyDeleteThanks
'e', provided the alternate upward b wave wave of a flat can be ruled out by the length of the thrust, and thus the pattern is truly a triangle. 'Assurance' implies safety for taking action. That is up to you.
DeleteTJ
Yep! We have a map...
DeleteNDX (wkly) Cursory rough draft (one possible path) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/qvzqufrdph47gov/NDXcursory.PNG/file
The "Curve" (wkly) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/p6t08qv4g9mxi85/TheCurve.PNG/file
SPY 5-min: IF we go with the premise that the biggest gap is for the third wave, then maybe we are in a "(b)" wave triangle or combination. There are too many overlaps, and the wave lengths do not seem to fit other structures. Could carry overnight and into Monday.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dBvd1F92/
Just an idea.
TJ
(a) does show somewhat of a wedge shape with extended 1st.
DeleteOn a different note, GOLD 5-min currently has the measurements of a contracting diagonal lower. Watch to see if a retrace avoids going over the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wNjudpdR/
TJ
Gold (dly) potential triangle update -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/e9thcs4byk8pmq1/Goldentriangle.PNG/file
SPY 5-min: now below the noon low.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY update: one possible triangle.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Az2sBPuH/
TJ
..otherwise a (b) wave double-combo ended at 14:00 hr.
DeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ