In an interesting change of circumstance, after the usual 'first-of-the-month-money' flooded the market, both a failure swing and downward acceleration were noted today. The SPY 30-min chart, below continues to document the count.
The failure swing is a double-combination w-x-y failure. This wave is not a triangle, and this indicates that downward movement can continue.
In general 'C' waves opposite the direction of the trend should not show acceleration. If the trend was up and the latter wave down was a "C" wave in an overall (a), (b), (c) down count then the last wave should not have shown such acceleration. This tends to indicate that the wave being formed downward is a third wave. It can continue if it likes, and it might make a 1.618 or greater wave downward (subject to the usual backing and filling).
Similarly, a second wave of the third wave should not be longer in time than all of (ii), and neither should it exceed the maximum price travel of wave (ii), as well.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
SPXcfd (4hr) - Appears to be 5 down exp. diag. Perhaps Im not seeing something else?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/afhg9wl1liz45ju/5dn.PNG/file
Not at the computer. Plz measure (b) of ((v)) vs all of ((iv)). Let me know the result.
DeleteTJ
I show labeled (b) as 1.15 longer.
DeleteThat's the issue. That count claims that a supposed smaller degree (b) wave is larger in price than the supposed larger degree wave ((iv)); the prior larger degree wave in the same direction. And that is a degree violation.
DeleteTJ
Gotcha. Then how would it be labeled from 11/22 peak down?
Delete..possibly like this, which keeps futures and cash in-synch.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FP6Dzsxw/
TJ
Maybe. Put that on 45min chart for 123 total bars, A/O doesnt have that 5 wave look (to me at least). Does look a lot like 3 waves.
DeleteES - could (ii) be moved to where W is at and now we are deeper into wave iii ?
DeleteNo, I don't think so because the second 'two' inside of iii would be larger in price than the first ii. That would be a degree definition violation.
DeleteTJ
I continue to question whether we are correcting the wave from 4279 or 2192 SPX. We have corrected 50% of the wave from 4279 so far.
ReplyDeleteAUDUSD (wkly) - something to monitor -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/50lr442r6htd2qu/AUDusd.PNG/file
SPY 30-min; in this scenario ii is currently smaller than (ii), and i is currently smaller than (i). This, so far, is true for both price & time follows the definitions for degree labeling for an extension. DO you see how such a pattern provides very, very clear invalidation points?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kUbUoKj9/
Meanwhile, the down wave is nowhere near a 1.618 extension, yet. If it gets there we would use the parameters for a third wave extension. The EWO currently is nowhere near the zero line.
The clear alternate for this count is shown in red, if only one new low is made.
TJ
Gold (wkly) - 19th nervous breakdown??
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/3budbset32wvde3/Goldwkly.PNG/file
SPY 5-min: like magic a bit of a wedge forming 'exactly' to show a high for the noon news reports.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Dn1XmAwb/
TJ
SPY 5-min; (fyi only) there is now downward overlap on each wave peak.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Fn0KxIg3/
TJ
Wave 4 Spx ?
ReplyDeleteWXYX from es ATH?
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ