For those who are into the details of wave counting, we may be about to test this Glenn Neely observation.
The observation (Rule #7, Page 5-31) is that the thrust wave out of an expanding triangle is not necessarily the same as the thrust out of a contracting triangle. Neely suggests that very often, the thrust wave of an expanding triangle falls short of the widest width of the triangle (the e wave), and this may result in a failure.
If the potential expanding triangle we've been monitoring over the last few days plays out, then we may get a chance to see a live test of this hypothesis.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
How far can 'e' fall before invalidation?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Watching SPX & VIX Gaps on daily to see if they get filled.
ReplyDeleteHere is SPY 30-min this morning. Wave (e) measures a bit large at 2.00 vs 1.50 per EWP guidelines, but the a-c- trend line has definitely been busted to the downside.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/viGcgAYX/
TJ
SPY 1-min; first five waves up, and retrace.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rHL4ucEd/
TJ
SPY 1-min: now a 62% retrace.
DeleteTJ
Following assumed 'e', since the 5th wave can fail, is there a minimum it should travel to confirm it as a 5th?
ReplyDeleteFirst, the EWP doesn't cite the tendency to fail; Neely does. Second, I would assume the up wave would try to do battle with (iii). Third, I do not know if the up wave will be an impulse or diagonal. It is impossible to take risk completely out of the markets; one can only try to reduce it.
DeleteTJ
From Neely - expanding triangles (click to sharpen)
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/x9a6ez6mz9tbnvk/exptriangle.PNG/file
It appears that a limiting exp. triangle ('b' or 4th wave) would fit here. Odd that Neely had never seen one (rare) as a 4th, but based upon seeing one as a 'b", he suggests that 5th wave (thrust) should reach near/to the .618 retrace. Our "thrust" didnt even reach .382. All of these together (weight of the evidence) suggests that the exp. triangle was not applicable here.
DeleteI'm open-minded. See post at 12:09, below.
DeleteTJ
SPY - new low for the day
ReplyDeleteES broke the low after the five-waves-up.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY on overlap watch. The bear count is in black. There were five-waves-up. The bull count is in red.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/S9Y1lpqW/
TJ
SPY 1-min: lower low needed for impulse.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VTR7Sa7g/
TJ
ES / SPY new low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/iYTr60Yv/
TJ
SPY 30-min does now have downward overlap.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bbMAyek6/
TJ
SPY 30-min: open-minded here. Here are the Fibo's on red ((i)).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kXTQfw7L/
TJ
These Markets are in a 3rd wave. Except for a few high flyers like AAPL,HD,MSFT,MCD,ect
ReplyDeleteThe consumer financial ie MA and Visa are in 3rd waves. Can this market crash...you betcha. IMHO
SPY 1-min; from what I can see, five waves down of five waves down.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8FkeMpVm/
TJ
..there are no overlaps and appropriate lower lows.
DeleteTJ
So, IFF we are in the flat wave alternate, price has hit the 'typical max' for the wave at c = 2.618 x a, as the chart shows.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zlotzHcB/
I think a lot depends on IF price takes out the 465.75 wave ((4)) high of this morning (i.e. the first five-waves-up).
TJ
Fwiw, 459.55 is bottom of high/low gap on the 7th (basis 30min SPY)
DeleteSPY 1-min: price has broken the base channel upward.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZjTWVmgV/
TJ
SPY 1-min: now better than a 1.618 wave upward. Err'ing on the side of an impulse and watching that there is no overlap.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5qeNT8Lu/
TJ
SPY 1-min update. Two ways to count an impulse.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xZKdh63l/
TJ
SPY 15-min: It might be good to watch the bottom of the gap made today on tomorrow's FED day.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WtSowXW5/
TJ