Perhaps a "B" wave resolves the differences between the ES and NQ futures, as per the previous post.
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| ES Futures - 1 Wk - Divergence Continues |
There is no immediate conclusion that further progress in the (Z) wave can't occur. The waves at the top do appear to be impulsive. And until we see a completion pattern, we must err on the side of further highs. Daily price is still above the 18-day SMA and so the bias is still up. Price is not yet near the upper daily Bollinger Band, but the daily slow stochastic is still over-bought and is not embedded.
However, sometimes the Z wave of a triple zigzag does fail as a sign of the weakness of the pattern. And making wave below the recent Minor B wave would be of significant concern.
Have a very nice Holiday to all readers and contributors.
TraderJoe
Good post TJ...now we wait.
ReplyDeleteMerry Christmas TJ and everyone.
ReplyDeleteOR/Pivot - a combination you may find of value in conjunction with other higher timeframe chart(s).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/bephap90nrvq2rr/ORPivot.PNG/file
Merry Christmas to all here who have helped me understand.
ReplyDeleteMerry Christmas Joe! Merry Christmas to all.
ReplyDeleteTJ - A Christmas present :o)
ReplyDeleteI've been wrestling with XLRE from Mar '20 low. I tried to start with a couple of "pieces" I think I recognize, and then go from there. I'd appreciate your critique
if/when convenient.
Thanks!
https://www.mediafire.com/view/7xg4ghqgwbfgw5d/xlre2d.PNG/file
Bell Curve (yrly returns) - (click to sharpen)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/9f9drytn4f5e9uf/BellCurve.PNG/file
Merry Christmas and a very Happy New Year to TJ & All!
ReplyDeleteGC (8hr) - update
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/lffihpdyhkrzlig/GC8.PNG/file
While flagging targets not yet achieved, I am turning a bit more cautious owing to breadth, momentum, and volatility divergences at these new highs...
ReplyDeleteLarger corn diagonal is busted.
ReplyDeleteLength of 5 in time saved the day.
SPY 15-min: while the count remains very much 'up-in-the-air', the best possibilities are shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/N1kbMBuC/
Regardless of the count, there has been very little 'time' for correction and very little 'price' in any correction. The 'purple' count suggests possibly a larger 'flat' second wave minute ((ii)).
TJ
The designation of minute ((i))/((a)) allows for the possibility of a diagonal although it is way too early to assign such, and a diagonal would 'likely' need higher highs in the Dow and the NQ.
DeleteTJ
SPY 5m - thoughts on today's move up -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/nuz3cgakgfdzwba/MoveUp.PNG/file
MCD it's a beauty...
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/DZcbzYmz/Screenshot-58.png
Indeed! Stores are closing all over Europe owing to the awful reports about their disgusting "meat" products. Remarkable it still trades near ATHs!! Are investors/trader truly THAT clue-less? Going to single digit price territory imo...and yes...they lost the lawsuit...
DeleteSpy 5m - update
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/s3j4mtcs41c3tf1/update27th.PNG/file
Based upon RSI peak, its poss the peak around 14:30 central was (3) of ((3)), and following correction, then up for (5) of ((3)). This takes price to the 1.382 level of ((1)). Just a thought. This assumes (2) of ((3)) was an abc only, not triangle of ((4)).
DeleteThat didn't work look forward to next post
ReplyDeleteThanks ET, Not expecting much this week, window dressing into new year maybe I guess?
ReplyDeleteWe coulld tag 4820 this week and STill have a RED December...
DeleteJoe you're counting waves and primary and alternate count waves as 3 or 5. Wouldn't your use of degrees be able to decipher if a wave is 3 or 5? Referring to above post 1215 last wave. Thanks
ReplyDeleteA degree violation only can be detected when a wave is larger (and not the difference between 2 and 4). Doesn't work when waves are increasingly smaller.
DeleteTJ
If ewt is fractal size of waves shouldn't matter. Obviously we have 1 min bars, thus any impulse wave should be correctly counted with 180 bars? The lower time frame issues don't resolve themselves on larger time frames. We just see them less often and have some cognitive bias that it's working. At least that's my opinion. Ew shouldn't matter what is the scale of the x axis. If you disagree then what is the minimum bar size and minimum number of bars to use? Why would we ever look at anything on smaller tube frame?
DeleteFor some reason you seem to have lost your perspective and are getting frustrated. Yes, EW is fractal. Lower degree fractals build larger degree fractals. Not the reverse. Sure, there are one minute waves; there are also nano waves made at various timeframes by the quants on their co-located servers. So, you can choose your 180 minutes. Is it the minutes around midnight when there is almost no volume? How much weight are you going to give to that? 'Usually', 'most-often' those are part of 'b' wave or other corrective waves. Or, they are part of third-wave gaps. Determining which is a key skill.
DeleteHow many bars you consistently use depends upon your objectives. If you are trying for day-trades, lower time frames. If you are trying for multiday swing trades try 1/2 hr to 4 hr. If you are investing, daily is sufficient. If you are doing the nano-scalping, then you need sub-one-minute and a co-located server.
I have no idea what your objective is, nor do I care. People's objectives even sometimes change. That's why I do not provide trading/investment advice. I'm not willing to keep charts on every significant time frame for everyone else. I have enough of a task to manage my own.
Regardless of time frame chosen, the heaviest volume remains around the cash open and close. This seems to be when the Smart Money (i.e. the greatest ability to impact the price level) makes their statements. So, somehow that needs to be factored into an EW count. I'm not sure Elliott/Prechter/Neely have sorted that issue out. Lately, 'some' of the waves have 'looked like' only 'risk on' or 'risk off', with all-day trending moves once the opening sets the direction and the 'daily algorithmic grind' progresses. Very hard to find 38% retracements. Some waves have 'em, some don't.
I try to take those into consideration. That said, a 30-min intraday SPY chart is one of the best, as it includes an opening and closing range in its time parameters, and significant gaps help locate third waves better than futures.
The futures are used 'primarily' for degree validation.
TJ
thanks joe
DeleteI've reread this a few times
DeleteThanks again
When we get a reversal all I can say it's going to be a beauty.
ReplyDeleteThe DOW futures (YM) have also made a new high this morning. The chart below is still of the SPY.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mPgctSpg/
TJ
Thanks TJ,
ReplyDeleteHow to calculate an approximate time for a major B wave to complete. I keep on reading your Trillions post and it gets difficult to mark waves on a very long term perspective.
SPY - Untested wkly pivot -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/sk8rv36icqvbcjq/WklyP.PNG/file
👍 that former ATH should get tested in the next month.
DeleteSPY - pivots (update) -
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/vdyrknv6bjy8uxd/updatedpivots.PNG/file
SPY 30-min: nothing too unusual yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IRb0r2yL/
TJ
Hopefully yes. It is possible that so much damage has been inflicted on price discovery mechanisms in equities markets that return to any semblance of normalcy could take much longer. If we do enter a deflationary depression as the bond market collapses, which I think is a real possibility, it will certainly take far longer than 24 months imo.
ReplyDeleteSPXcfd (4hr) - early look
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/u1kqu16i7y9rxec/nosurprise.PNG/file
Good morning all. SPY 30-min: there is a new higher high. But it may extend. Watch the lows of ((iv)).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hOTnj2iA/
TJ
A new post is added for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ