While we wait, I think this chart is the simplest explanation I can find. It doesn't mean we've necessarily topped. But, there is something very interesting in the measurement.
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| NQ Futures - Weekly - Nearing 100% |
The Fibonacci next likely relationship would be quite a ways away - which is why I mention it now.
Separately, you should have a look at a DOW chart, and confirm that the last leg down was longer than the previous one. I'm note sure what this means yet. Is it a sign of a triangle or a diagonal in the Dow? It is way too early to tell yet.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
SPX (yrly) Long Game (rough draft) - (click to sharpen)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/7eh5vs3kdfdn0ja/LongTerm.PNG/file
..just bear in mind that the S&P500 index was not even created until 1957;
Delete"The S&P 500, which is short for Standard & Poor's 500, was introduced in 1957 as a stock market index to track the value of 500 corporations that have their stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ Composite. Standard & Poor's is a company that provides financial data, credit ratings for investments, and various equity indexes. A market index is a collection of investments, such as stocks, that are grouped together to track the performance of a particular segment of the financial market."
I have no idea how someone could 'accurately' back calculate an index when some of the companies may not have even existed back then (i.e. the 1900's). So, I personally don't trust an index before it's birthday.
TJ
I disagree with you, TJ. SPX is essentially the 500 largest companies. Older companies get replaced by newer companies every year. So just take the 500 largest companies on Jan 1 of each year and duplicate the current formula. Here is an interesting article on what happened to the original 12 Dow companies https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/04/09/what-happened-to-the-first-12-stocks-on-the-dow.aspx
DeleteSee the second sentence from the S&P Brochure.
Delete"The S&P 500 is recognized worldwide as one of the premier benchmarks for the U.S. stock market’s performance.
The S&P 500 does not simply contain the 500 largest stocks;
rather, it covers leading companies from leading industries.
The S&P 500 represents a broad cross-section of the U.S. equity market, including common stocks traded on U.S. exchanges."
TJ
Popped Corn (2wks) - [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/8245pdjzmncwppu/Popped_Corn.PNG/file
Es 30-min, just fyi, new high can now finally qualify for wave (v) or wave (d) of expanding triangle.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Working on 1 of v, are you off by a degree? Thanks
DeleteSee below.
Deletehttps://schrts.co/UjmrsgPR
ReplyDeleteA/D lines not confirming new high on SPX
Here is the ES 2-Hr chart which matches up with SPX. They are now "in-sync". (See Friday's SPY cash chart).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/AG0DAllL/
TJ
If flagging action a 4th, upside target substantially higher.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: downward overlaps on most up waves.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY 30-min: here is a cash chart update.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/URO3KdSL/
TJ
SPY 1-min: the material is here for a diagonal; perhaps a leading diagonal 'a' wave of the (e) wave of the expanding triangle IFF it can hold it's shape.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/itxd1FEq/
TJ
ES 30-min: 5 consecutive closes under the lower intraday Bollinger Band; probability of next close outside of the lower band ~0-1%; not impossible - just very low odds.
ReplyDeleteTJ
fyi - SPY cash over 468 would rule out a larger iv if the low was a larger iii of diagonal.
DeleteTJ
(fyi) ES 30-min; close inside of the bands resetting the number of consecutive closes.
DeleteTJ
SPY 1-min: there is 468.00 and confirmation that diagonal is over.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RSZKRSyK/
TJ
..it also made a better AO signature and a minor new low.
DeleteTJ
HD looks to be complete
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/Njc2RybD/Screenshot-35.png
no overlap between (D) and (A) to draw that conclusion. 1 -> 5.
DeleteTJ
HD (wkly) - Resistance
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/zsgnpb4exnm675p/HD.PNG/file
SPY 1-min: here's what I have so far from the low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LzXPxJ3a/
TJ
SPY 1-min; so far three-waves up.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/J7Ct1C80/
TJ
SPY 3-min: here's an update from the top. Chop-chop.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FZ25wdEY/
TJ
Looks like either a diagonal up, now, although the timing is off a bit. If the timing is off, then possibly a multiple zigzag b wave up?
DeleteVery compressed waves and hard to tell.
TJ
Is there such thing as a "throw-over" in a triangle or expanding triangle? Or must they respect their treadlines?
ReplyDeleteThanks!
-Steven
Neeely says "wave (e) in an expanding triangle often exceeds the line drawn from (a) to (c)". So, yes!
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: lower low.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY 3-min: chart update.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KrxvGese/
TJ
ES 30-min; takes out the red d wave low.
ReplyDeleteTJ
How do you count ES off of this morning's top? It looks very much like a clean impulse. Not 3 waves.
DeleteIt's a fool's errand. The problem with an impulse is the 4.236 Fibonacci extension for wave red iii. Such grossly extended waves usually happen only in diagonals (the red count); or in triangles, the larger of which we are probably in.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XWn0zwMa/
Although I prefer the internal diagonal count for that reason, it is a fools errand because either way, we are likely in an 'a' wave down. One needs to watch to see if a larger 'b' wave flat forms to 'take up more time' or if the market 'just gives way' into a 'c' wave right away.
That prediction is very, very hard to make.
TJ
Thanks! Given the market dynamics being driven by "the big 5" while the internals of the rest of the market deteriorate, I am watching closely that QQQ re-lost its prior H&S neckline in the last 30 min today.
DeleteWhat the structure looks like to me is a nested 1,2's and today was the start of wave 3 down for the majority of stocks
ReplyDeleteThere are some late leaders that topped today or late last week so 3 of 3 will be the point of recognition for the bear market
The decline should be on a par to 1990 Japan
Leverage and a trillion in margin debt spells disaster
IMHO
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ