The Dow's daily pattern is 'making' all the right stuff for a potential diagonal, especially if that is a 78% wave ((ii)).
It is, of course, way too soon to call it such. In fact, we don't 'know' that wave ((iii)) is done to the upside. And, then, of course, a fourth wave, ((iv)), would need to be confirmed.
But this is a way to work slightly higher into the New Year, and to keep the whippy guessing-game going. So, I just thought I'd bring it to your attention. In this case, since wave ((iii)) has, indeed, made a higher high, it is not required - although it is typical - for wave ((v)) to make a higher high. In other words, the last wave in an ending contracting diagonal can fail.
Here is the progress made on the ES futures count: which is the same as I've counted in SPY cash.
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| ES Futures - 2 Hr - Probability of a Top |
Yes, there is a high probability of a top. Still, a retrace that does not go over today's all-time-high is required. Also, this up wave may only be part of a diagonal in the S&P500.
Have a great rest of the day.
TraderJoe
I always thought the current wave had strong "C" wave characteristics so an ED does make a lot of sense.
ReplyDeleteThanks!
ReplyDeleteAn aside - something you may find of interest - (click to sharpen)
https://www.mediafire.com/view/brcpt7ur1s3ahqq/DFS_H-L.PNG/file
GC (4hr) quick update -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/dnom8zg45ln3z8x/gold4hrtoe.PNG/file
DJI (wkly) observations/thoughts -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/83tos7qj9w82gss/DJIwkly.PNG/file
Joe, im trying to understand how things work based on the completed 5 ways up this morning and the caution to watch the 4th wave low. so now if market bottoms - and makes ATH, you will have to change this mornings impulsive 5th wave to a corrective b wave. What did you mean by watching the prior 4th wave to see if wave extends? does it now mean that it was a 5th since we broke the level loser? or does it mean we have to move the 4 over to the current close? or does it mean that we are now in a down wave of higher degree. thanks
ReplyDeleteIf/When the down wave becomes longer in price than ((iii)) one can definitively conclude that ((v)) was done because ((v)) must be shorter than ((iii)) and it won't be if ((iv)) is longer than ((iii)). This 'might' occur before overlap with ((i)). Otherwise, you can try to rule out an up wave based on the time of the longest up wave in the futures. Beyond that you are asking for guidance wave counting can not provide.
DeleteTJ
im looking at futures. and it appears the recent down wave is the longest since rally from 4550. what does that tell us? we CAN call this wave a 2 and when it completes? it cant be a subwave of a 1 3 or 5? thanks
DeleteThis is the way Glen Neely expresses the criteria. They are met.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mDMa1hd4/
BUT, even when they are met he says the probability is about 95-98% of a top. He does not say certainty. Please do not press further on this topic. It is a probability only. I have added the chart to the main post however.
TJ
Not trying to hassle you. Thanks as always
DeleteIf BTC waterfalls everything is on the table.IMHO
ReplyDeletestrong support at 41K. I'm expecting a bounce from there. If everything moves together, then the ending diagonal idea makes sense. Lows next week, bounce into late Jan / early Feb....
DeleteFlagging action pointing to 5000 and the EW analysts who cited that target months ago appear to have been correct, my own skepticism notwithstanding.
Delete@Tachyon - And I'm 'sure' these very same analysts told you the market was going to drop ~50 points (from ~4,800 to ~4,750), too, right? Yeah. Fact is I'm getting tired of your posts, most of which have been very badly timed. You do no useful work here. You post no charts; you ask few - if any - EW questions.
DeleteHeck, I don't even know why you post a 5,000 comment as a reply, when the post you are replying to is a Bitcoin post. You really just seem out of control.
So, I may consider not posting anything more of your comments. Tired is tired and you're wearing me out. You never say anything like "good count" or "bad count" or anything else. So, it's getting close to saying, 'to heck with you' and go listen to your other favorite analysts.
TJ
A few points T.J, if I may. The original post implied BTC would likely lead other assets down so my point was SPX was showing some clearly bullish signs. My reference to other EW analysts was not to disparage your own work, merely to point out that some of their upside targets may have been correct. So far as I know you have never made any statements about wave targets, although you have shown a few "potential" b wave tops. Finally, until the recent clear bull flag printed in SPX I seriously doubted the 4980 to 5200 call by some analysts. Your ruffled feathers are particularly ironic as your proposed ED, which I in fact did comment on, is pointing to the exact same area some analysts cited awhile back. Beware of narcissism my friend. I will save you the trouble of taking offense at my comments. Sayonara.
Delete@Tachy ..My 'ruffled feathers' are primarily because you don't even take the effort to explain yourself the first time like you did the second time. You get my drift?
DeleteTJ
An additional chart and some commentary has been added to this post after the market re-open.
ReplyDeleteTJ
You can also see a ed in spx in the same period sort of
ReplyDeleteEurUsd (dly) Expanding upon an EWI assessment - [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/k25a3zwidgfy27l/EurUsdDly.PNG/file
MSFT (dly) - of note
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/3ane2puak5mkpz2/MSFTd.PNG/file
ES 30-minutes: so far, today's movement is sideways and overlapping - difficult to find impulses.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7m9dNWIp/
Watch for fractal breaks: either direction or both directions still possible.
TJ
GC (30min) Progress report -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/lpxdz3avskxx7vh/Progressreport.PNG/file
Correction - chart notes weekly pivot, should be daily.
DeleteQQQ notes,
ReplyDelete1. Weekly RSI divergences did indicate a bounce and suggested a weekly close at 399.79. We ended up with a open at the bottom of our weekly candle and a close near the open, very negative.
2. QQQ didn’t tag the 90% Fibonacci retrace nor did the index.
3. Price is above the 20 day and rising.
4. I did add a possible i ii
5. No clear trend
https://www.tradingview.com/x/VdEyYYWI/
ES 30-min: after a slight break of an afternoon upside fractal, price reversed on the close and broke two downside -red- fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cub6NeS6/
Since the evening bottom was not exceeded, and for reasons of time comparison, we must allow that the closing low could be a larger {{x}} wave to go with the longer-in-time {{w}} wave.
TJ
DKS (dly) - 4th in place? (click to sharpen)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/qtsffi7z0a4t0f9/DKS.PNG/file
TSLA (mthly) Observations -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/lqthiijsum0rvqi/TSLAmthly.PNG/file
NDX/SPX (mthly) - 2nd Notice
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/5i2wuq421sfqrdt/ndxspx.PNG/file
https://schrts.co/RSQJPycZ
ReplyDeletePredictions 2022 - just for fun if TJ allows it. I believe we will get a mean reverting event this year, but how deep? I think we can tag the 150 ema. and probably 200 dma. I also expect VIX to spike a lot with the fed raising rates this year. I plan on being a buyer on VIX spikes until the fed inverts the 2/10.
Equal Weight FAANG (2wks) - An apparent Neely flat application -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/lqrqmgbkur28h1l/EqualFang-overlay.png/file