Waiting For Answers - 2

Using The Eight Fold Path Method for Counting an Impulse (see the Featured Post in the Upper Right Hand Corner of the main blog page), it is entirely possible to count a completed impulse, upward, which includes a truncation in the ES, and no truncation in the SPY. Here is the ES 30-minute futures chart with 150 candles.

The Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) indicates the peak for the third wave (it is possible to locate (iii) one or two shoulders to the right, also). And the wave is traveling within a parallel. We know that wave (iii) exceeded the 1.618 extension level, and wave (iv) is longer in time than wave (ii) by quite a bit. The EWO for wave (iv) travels below the zero line, and yet maintains the guidelines of +10% to -40% of the peak reading. Then, there are a clear five-waves-up for the ES to a potential truncation high before the parallel is broken substantially and further downward movement begins. Next, the EMA-34 indicates good form & balance with a significant numbered wave on each side of the moving average.

Yes, it is possible that this is all of the deep retrace of the potential expanding diagonal downward from the all-time-high, and the potential flat wave that followed it.

Still, while we confirmed today that a triangle count no longer works in the ES for a fourth wave, it is also possible, albeit with lower odds, to see a fourth wave anywhere down to the 50% Fibonacci retrace level. Price is nowhere near close, yet. But, the odds are beginning to decrease on that scenario because a parallel has been broken fairly substantially already.

So, keep your eyes on the Elliott Wave Oscillator to see if it starts making lows below -40% of peak. If peak EWO is 51, then (-.4 x 51 = -20.4) below -21 would be a cause for concern. For now, the weekly count remains as it is in the 30 November post.

Have an excellent start to the evening.

TraderJoe