ES futures just hit new all-time highs. SPY has not as of this writing. Yet, the put-to-call-ratio (see second chart below) is back down in 0.36 region as of last night. There is No Urgency To Sell, and this is otherwise termed complacency. Is it possible that the market is merely extending out this fifth wave of Minor B as an ending contracting diagonal (chart below)?.
The first step necessary, of course, is for SPY/SPX cash to register the new all-time-high. If it can do that, it might back off a bit in a wave iv, then pop up to make wave v to finish the minute ((c)) wave of Minor B.
Here is the put-call data with the latest reading at 0.36, the likes of which have not been seen in months.
Have an excellent rest of the day.
TraderJoe
SPY just got the new all-time-high.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Within any 3 wave "leg" of a diagonal, can a "b" wave be a triangle?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Yes!
DeleteTJ
Thanks. Using your original count down to late June of ((a)) for Gold, your thoughts on this alternative. Thanks
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/8x2x7yqq78nhc20/GoldDiag.PNG/file
..possible .. possible: also possible circle ((a)) is down where blue (b) is. And remember, 5 must be longer than 3, usually by a fair amount.
DeleteTJ
Just very happy my expected upside target of 4600 finally met. A few indicators still working very well. Time to step back and re-evaluate imo.
ReplyDeleteAgain, there is nothing mysterious, odd, attractive, or scientific about 4,600 as 'your' target. If it is hit, it is one of many numbers on the possible progression to the exterior Fibonacci retracements (1.14, 1.27. 1.38, etc.) which are likely from 'three-waves-down', the first of which is the least likely target for the b wave of an expanded flat (more usual are 1.27 and 1.38).
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Once again, there is nothing 'round number' about, for example, the 2009 S&P 500 low of 666. Nothing at all. You can try to make things up, but unless you show how round numbers form a theory or a market 'principle' then you are just barking numbers. You have been incorrect as many times as correct on your 'round-number' calls, and that amounts to 'random chance'.
TJ
Comment not in any way meant to be instructive T.J. I am just narrating in real time my own expectation of price action based on my own personal experience and observations. I remained long until my target was met, it's that simple. Am I always right? No I am, not, but right far more often than not, and have problem saying I was wrong. I now think we have an interim top or very close...
DeleteYet, this comment reads totally to the contrary.
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TachyonOctober 20, 2021 at 1:14 PM
I suppose an expanded flat is still technically possible, but I would think even such a corrective move would occur with ND on a variety of momentum indicators. I was a total chicken ad exited my 450 calls too early!! Victim of my own confirmation bias... :)
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The problem with 'narrating' is that one might not remember the tale too well. List a system, document, and abide by the results.
TJ
Lol! Does look like a "Gotcha"
Deleteright? My point was that I was WRONG to be bearish and dump calls early. Calls were speculative. My "long" position was actually a 448x450 bull put spread.
Of course the site is not about trading and I respect the policy.I realise it is easy to jump to conclusions based on a passing comment about a single positon. Won't repeat that mistake.
Update on 4hr cfd -
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SPY has pulled back to top of OR following breakout.
ReplyDeleteUVXY (hrly) Early, but looking constructive -
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AMZN (w,d) - Looks distributive
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FB (w,d) - Bounce?
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Looking at [potential] inflation trends from Stockcharts video - worth a watch!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNccDZhkSqI
CPCE - Possible ? [if interested] -
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https://schrts.co/FtdCUVYG
DeleteNAIIM - money managers overbought again
https://schrts.co/rZzrIZyn
DeleteA/D line for SPX & NYC did not confirm highs. NDX did
https://schrts.co/TiDMFbrr
DeleteNasdaq has weak internals
CRB and SPY/TLT (wkly) [if interested] -
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https://www.mediafire.com/view/5kgr3het70hv956/spytltW.PNG/file
SPY (wkly) - momentum analysis - [if interested] -
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GW, Thanks for all the links.
ReplyDeleteSPY30m - Counterattack - not often seen
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/1nzhrb4ah83dp9m/Counterattack_lines.PNG/file
Good morning all. Here are some preliminary thoughts with this morning's 'first of the month' money.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Aq99WAm2/
TJ
I keep seeing a skit in my head with Jonny Carson and the great Yardeni.
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: here is the '62% drill' again in the SPY. Price in a wedge most recently.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HkdRGggC/
TJ
SPY 5-min: So far, so good. But almost always exceeding 62%.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ThCeJnfr/
TJ
After OR reversal, now back at OR midline (from below).
ReplyDeleteSPY5 - current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/oflxub7l91zbuf3/spy5bounce.PNG/file
SPY 5-min: another 62% measurement. See chart notations.
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TJ
SPY5 - eod -
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SPY 5-min: X wave had no power to break low.
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TJ
30-20 yield curve inversion - (excerpt courtesy of Bloomberg) -
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The time to get nervous is when the 3mo/10y curve inverts IMHO.
DeleteJNK (dly) - Risk off ?
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GW, Although not textbook that wienstien worked on corn.
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DeleteCorn (dly/4hr) - "tweak" that may help - (click to enlarge) :o)
Deletehttps://www119.zippyshare.com/v/JRSW6SzY/file.html
Good morning all. Here is SPX hourly. I didn't draw the wedge shape; the market did. I'm just connecting the dots.
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TJ
VIX - has a bullish wedge set up. Probably will hit a13 handle first.
Deletecan a diagonal have expanded falt as a down wave? if so we have an upwards diagonal from 10/27 lows and may not be done
DeleteSPY30 - wedging
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ES 12-hr - the primary purpose of this chart is to show a 1.272 relationship, now to within +/- 1 point.
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It is not yet to say a top is in, as a high must hold yet. There is some interesting post-noon action, but nothing definitive.
TJ
Also, notably, price is at/above the weekly Bollinger band. Which happens to be below the daily Bollinger band.
ReplyDeleteMiners blues? Seasonals - (click to enlarge)
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SPY30m update - click to enlarge
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SPY 5-min: just be on guard that if this current wave doesn't impulse lower and take out lows, this triangle could be in play.
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TJ
SPX 5-min: one form of valid triangle has formed.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qxtTVzSY/
TJ
..and recall, the opposite of a triangle is usually a 1-2-i-ii if the triangle breaks down instead of up. So, these are the competing counts.
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TJ
The opposite of a triangle is never a 1-2-i-ii, because the former must subdivide 3-3-3-3-3, and the latter must subdivide 5-3-5-3. A wave can not be corrective AND impulsive.
DeleteIf it's so easy to just slap a 3 or a 5 on a wave, after the fact, depending on whether the market goes up or down, then EW would have to be deemed completely worthless.
While you are, of course, ' theoretically correct', in very compressed wave situations it is sometimes devilishly hard to tell a :3 from a :5. For example, 'was that an unusually long fourth wave, or was it a 'b' wave?' Criticize me all you like. You haven't made one decent wave diagram on here yet. There is nothing 'blythe' or 'cavalier' in my analysis. There is only the honesty of having done it for years on end at every degree of trend. May you never get a wavelet incorrect.
DeleteTJ
It appears to me that what separates EW analysts is an ability to recognize the main trend.Being correct about the main trend means you will properly distinguish motive from corrective waves. EW analysis will always appear futile even if you are precise with label ov every sub-micro degree wave but wrong about the main trend. Just one man's two pennies. 😊
DeleteNothing at all wrong with constructive criticism. Only God is infallible. I suspect a simple admission "I was wrong" would garner a lot more respect rather than a defensive, hostile retort. No need to be so sensitive, readers appreciate your counting efforts. Anyone who thinks or expects you are always correct in your amalysis is silly and has not been paying attention! 😊
DeleteNotice that the structure did indeed break 'down'.
Delete@Tachy .. how many times do I have to tell you to shushup about the 'main trend'. IFF you don't know what an 18-day moving average is, I just can't see the point of allowing any more of your posts. I have not told anyone to 'go short'. I never will. That's not my role. I might say whether or not a count can be complete or not. I think you are looking for something else.
DeleteTJ
@Tachy..'Nothing at all wrong with constructive criticism. Only God is infallible.' Actually, it is you and your 'round-number' mania that deserve the bulk of the criticism. You were sprouting the 4,600 'tag & go' philosophy. Yet, I showed you Fibonacci levels that were above that, and said, "4.600 might just be 'another number' on the way to these levels". You were wrong - by more than 25 S&P points, and neither do you humbly bow your head and say you were incorrect about the whole 'round-number' philosophy. I 'never said' 4,600 couldn't be hit: nothing like it. IFF we are in a B wave up, they can go to 1.382, or even 1.618 sometimes (less often).
DeleteTJ
Dollar (dly) - update (confluences) -
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This place is quiet -- too quiet.
ReplyDeleteDJT wasn't quiet today and I'm afraid that's what's coming.
DeleteAVIS short squeeze was primary culprit. Only 7 0f 20 stocks gained yesterday. AVIS is the new meme stock. :o)
DeleteMarket continues higher with flagging action preceeding each ramp. Up-trend appears intact imo.
ReplyDeleteDJT (wkly) - the AVIS squeeze
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SPY 15-min: in the hourly diagonal count shown earlier on the SPX, this is still possible.
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TJ
FYI, 73 year old father in law asked
ReplyDelete"what is that bit dollar?"
SPY 15-min: today is FED day. Everyone knows that. There might be some benefit in knowing where the 15-minute intraday fractals are. The news-reading algo's might take some of them out, but if you can follow the new ones made during the day in relation to the EMA-34, then it might provide some 'objective' wave markers.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HqFkwvNG/
TJ
GOLD 1-Hr. The insidious diagonal and why 'some' people don't get my wave counts.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MsSi3yrG/
Tell me how else to count all these clear three-wave sequences.
TJ
SPY 15-min: I have added in a new local fractal, and an alternate triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EaJWjIBy/
TJ
There is now another interior down (red) fractal, as well.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/db0DQqBy/
TJ
Building The Mother Of All Tops
ReplyDeleteNo one believes this craziness can continue indefinitely. But when it finally ends, as it must, the consequences are almost too dire to imagine. That is why the stock market is taking so long to build a top: The coming bear market will have tragic consequences for our way of life. We are about to discover how little of value the 'Information Age' produces, and how illusory its wealth. The Great Depression brought severe hardship to many Americans, but the coming one will be worse because the fall will come from a pinnacle of material affluence paid for with credit.
Too the moon Chris, no fear :)
DeleteSPY 15-min; first interior down (red) fractal back exceeded lower. REMINDER: FED report at top of the hour, followed by the Chair Press conference.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY 15-min: FED starts tapering immediate reaction.
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TJ
SPY30 - current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/o94mhnhfwm1sk0b/Throwover.PNG/file
While truncations are rare, loooks to me like a five up can now be counted if one is considered at recent October lows. Looking for depth of next corrective decline to disprove thesis.
ReplyDeleteWe've reached the 1.382 ext retrace of Sept selloff.
ReplyDeleteThere is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ