The basic outlook for the ES futures remains unchanged from the schematic shown in the post from October 2, at this LINK.
Price remains in a channel lower. So far, there are lower lows and lower highs. The degrees of the waves, both in terms of price lengths and timing, have still been working out well.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
The b wave of i is very disproportionate with b wave of iii. Does it not matter specifically if contracting ld in play. Thks
ReplyDeleteHow abt where you have a of iii, that would be all of iii, now v in play.
ReplyDelete(a) is currently in five-waves; ((i)) is currently in three waves. You can't have both be ((i)) and ((iii)) where ((i)) is a 'three' and ((iii)) is a five in a diagonal. Also, that would make ((iv)), a double zigzag in a diagonal, and usually - almost always - they are single zigzags. So, basically you are not following the rules.
DeleteThe best alternate is ((i)) as a 'five' is ((i)), ((ii)) is ((ii)); then (a) as a 'five' is (i), and (b) is (ii), but then you know what that means.
TJ
Thanks
DeleteThe larger context means this will be a LD. Would it be correct to assume ONLY a new ATH invalidates the LD?
ReplyDeleteThanks Joe I know what that means
ReplyDeleteSPY 5min - Observations today
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/3gp1okp8504o44m/SPY5.PNG/file
Crude (dly) - Lot of talk about $100 oil. A few things to keep an eye on.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/z5lzi9ofnzdff37/CLd.PNG/file
Looks like a really nice impulse on the weekly.
DeleteI'm happy the Dxy/USO correlation just over .50 should keep a lid on things for now. Hope $ stays strong.
DeleteES 30-min: approximate 50% retrace of yesterday's decline. Also, already a lower low day. You might want to generate the daily wave-counting-screen with pivot points, Bollinger Bands, and fractals.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Does this look like a series of 1st and 2nd waves from the ES 4421.50 high on October 7? Or am I just being hopeful?
DeleteI could be wrong but I really don't think so. Here's why: trading is unbelievably choppy and price-movement slow. All we did this morning was complete another diagonal in the futures, as shown below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/i8SMU1sq/
Remember: (a) was in five-waves-down (:5); (b) was in three-waves-up (:3), and so (c) should be in five waves down. We 'might' have those first five waves as a diagonal, which would only be wave 'i' of (c). We are not getting significant third waves yet.
Best I can do.
TJ
SPY (5m) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/exprwqjrffvvk2e/spy5m.PNG/file
On the ES, the second 'first' wave starting on Oct 11 is longer than the first 'first' wave starting on Oct 7th. I believe that's a degree violation, but I defer to TJ.
ReplyDeleteThe second first wave might just be 'a' wave of three in yet another potential expanding diagonal. The micro structures are getting confusing out there.
-TJ
..see above @ 1:16 pm.
DeleteTJ
ES 5-min: need to take out 4,344 or else possible to go up over 4,365 again.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 30-min; 4,344 exceeded lower; further upward option I see is a triangle since 9 AM. Taking out 4,339 would help eliminate that option.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY (5min) - update to prior
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/mwgmbp10bzky8n1/SPY5again.PNG/file
Lower OR exceeded.
DeleteStarting to look like XX from spring 2020.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min 4,339 is gone. Hard to see further upward options, except a larger flat.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES upward overlap. Upward possibility now a double-zz. The third waves just are not well-developed yet.
DeleteTJ