Today the down trend line was broken (and, hence, the upper parallel trend line). The upper daily Bollinger Band might be a 'Smart Money' target, but it does not have to be.
The count is temporarily in a state of limbo until we see how far the up wave pushes. At this point one can speculate until blue-in-the-face about triangle, and where they start, etc. We will avoid that for now while admitting a triangle is possible - but so it a Flat wave.
The one thing we will note, is that if this is the whole correction, it is just less than 23.6% from the Oct-Nov 2020 low. And it is only 14.6% from the March 2020 low. More downside - which has not been ruled out yet - could make those numbers more proportional. Such shallow corrections are almost unheard of.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
FWIW Dow Theory Schanepp more or less says the same thing.
ReplyDeleteFrom here we either rally to new highs, or we will see a fairly quick breakdown to new lows. Four steps and the >3% rally today by SP500 and one other index was step 3. Step 4 is breakdown by two indexes, which would be a sell signal to them. They do not yet have a sell signal. Their signals are for LTBH types.
A triangle or flat from the ah tube high or from the recent low?
ReplyDelete$50 Silver? Perhaps something within this framework?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/anckabd4uwymejs/xagusd.PNG/file
ES 15-min: this is all I see this morning with the cash market not open.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9BQ0pJkE/
And wave (iii) or (y) is exactly 0.618 x wave (i) or (w). There is lots of overlap.
TJ
..and another downward overlap of (i), (w) at the cash open.
DeleteTJ
Reminder: Consumer Sentiment at the top of the hour. IF the wave lengths in the above chart get out of control - meaning improper lengths - then maybe look for an overnight triangle.
DeleteTJ
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ReplyDeleteVIX - At lower BB and breaking up trend line. I never initiate new longs when VIX at lower BB.
ReplyDeleteConfluent fibs - SPY
ReplyDeletehttps://www52.zippyshare.com/v/v4GBX9ue/file.html
Long tails on weekly and daily candles seem to have been strongly hinting bulls remained firmly in control. Analysts calling the move dowm lower degree corrective might be proven correct. I had no idea how to count the choppy action and instead looked at S/R price action which spelled caution for the immediate bearish case imo. Enjoy your week-end!
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min; another pretty clear triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/A6pybjtZ/
TJ
Has reached the .75 fib (thrust), with 1.00 around 446.35ish area
DeleteES 8-Hr: ES is at 62, now. It seems like a question of whether or not it goes for 72 today. I don't think a further up count works below 50.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JuwL2zwb/
TJ
..just fyi..ES daily upper Bollinger Band currently at 72.50
DeleteTJ
SPY (5m) Last
ReplyDeletehttps://www7.zippyshare.com/v/UeCEwM9Q/file.html
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ