Count Not Useful at the Moment

Today, we said the Smart Money might target the upper Bollinger Band at 4,472.50 and price got to 4,468 not quite making it. Why? Maybe it will on Monday/Tuesday. Maybe not. If not, there is a potential failure lurking, as we showed in the comments for today on the ES 8-Hr chart, below.

Price has not yet crossed up over the 27 Sep high. It could. That would be a common expectation. Price could also continue up to the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio or beyond. Could it make a new high? It could. 

The wave count is relatively useless at this point. A lot depends on that issue we we having with the first wave down. Is it a "five" or a "three"? If it's a 'five' we might just have had a large flat following it. Or, if it's a "five" the wave structure to the low might be ((a)), ((b)), ((c)) to Minor 1, with a second wave, Minor 2 for the month of October. Or the a-b-c could be part of a triangle, somewhere.

If it's a "three", then the wave structure to the low might count as w-x-y.

Another confusing item: the SPX/SPY and NQ futures made lower lows the first day of October. The ES did not. So, this might support some sort of "b" or "x" wave at the early October low. But, again, it does not add to the clarity. 

Too, neither is the situation with degree labeling able to answer many questions. But, because the late September wave down is shorter in price and time than the early September wave down, it can count as a sub-wave - like a "b" wave or an "x" wave.

Dubiously, the situation requires flexibility and willingness to use technical indications such as the Bollinger Bands until we see if a new high is made first or a new low. Right now, the Bollinger Bands do not exactly look like they are in a position to support new all-time-highs right away. But, stranger things have happened.

Have a good start to your evening and to your weekend.

TraderJoe