The SPY count remains on track per the schematic provided over the weekend. Here is the count with the price bars shown on the SPY 2-Hr chart just for clarity.
Today during the comments we said it was possible for the (b) wave up to have a failure wave. It still is. A lot depends on prices and developments in the overnight hours. It is still possible via an extra-ordinarily tortured fourth wave to get a higher high than the prior 'a' wave shown. But it simply does not have to happen. Otherwise, a large gap down tomorrow could signal the onset of wave (c) of minute ((iii)). The NQ's wave minute ((iii)) is longer in price than it's minute ((i)) wave, so it would be very interesting to see how the wave ((iii)) in the ES/SPY turns out.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
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ReplyDeleteBecause of the long term count. Previously shown at this link:
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TJ
SPX cash can count as a standard impulse with v of that sequence being the longest. Your iii,iv would be i,ii formed by a leading diagonal down. (a) (b) would be iii,iv. I think you alluded to something like this a few days ago.
Delete..no; the objective evidence says differently. There are only two distinct troughs on the Elliott Wave Oscillator (shown above). That is 'three waves'. I covered all of the other relevant evidence in this weekend post.
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TJ
Is there one source (reference) that lists all EW guidelines, those applying to particular waves, patterns, overall, etc.? Seems like this would be quite helpful if one could run down a checklist to clarify potential questions. This would be a tabular type list, not scattered throughout 1 or more books.
ReplyDeleteThanks
Any such summary, in order to be 'predictive' and not merely reactive would have to be able to predict a phenomenon like this.
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And it should predict, 1) why did the low & high occur 'when' it did, and 2) what predicted the extent of the price rise to precisely $483.
I'm not sure anyone has yet uncovered the operable principle, other than a generalized 'mass social interaction' statement.
TJ
Here's a more specific question - is it an EW guideline (or Neely"ism") that the smaller degree 2nd wave of a (i)(ii), i, ii can't travel outside of the base channel?
DeleteThanks
It is not an EW guideline. In fact, Ralph Nelson Elliott suggested and Prechter included in the work, that 'sometimes' a 'throw-under' of the initial channel is what 'leads to' a large third wave, as the throw under creates the initial bearishness necessary for the rise (or bullishness for the fall).
DeleteFrom what I have read of Neely, he merely clarified to state that if there is a subsequent throw-under of the 0 - 2 trend line, then the first wave two location is simply misidentified, and the trend line should be redrawn. To the best of my knowledge Neely did not use the term base-channel, and that originated with Elliott (simply as an initial drawing of the channel), and was later popularized by Prechter and Jeffery Kennedy of EWI.
TJ
So, setting Neely's interpretation aside, wouldn't we welcome a "throw-under" of the 0-2 TL as this would get closer to the larger degree 2nd wave termination point (which is the entry location we hoped to catch in the first place). Kind of a "best case" second chance? Even if it doesn't lead to the "large" 3rd wave, its still a better entry point.
DeleteDXY (wkly) From a pattern perspective, two possibles [if interested]-
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Also curious to see how C of minute three will unfold, particularly as it appears minuette A of minute 1 was longer than minuette C.
ReplyDeleteIWM (dly) Resolution -
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Are we on E wave of triangle?
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