I did this 'social mood' exercise once before. I thought it was time to repeat it, as I noted a number of these items in my comments.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Good News Near a Top |
Educational, informative or not, the space shots represent the utmost in largess by the 1% while the vast majority struggle back on the planet. Same with the IPO's: "all this money - got to do something with it." Let's not fail to mention the FED officials with their hand in the cookie-jar, the glorification of gambling apps by CNBC, Bloomberg and other news programs, and Senator McConnell's single-handed saving of the Republic today.
As to the short term, we could still be in a (b) wave of some type - either triangle or complex correction - but time needs to be monitored closely.
P.S. As I was writing this post, the ES futures went over the high, eliminating a triangle (b) wave, but still allowing a complex correction to take more time & price. So, after the re-open I added this chart.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Possible Combination (b) |
In order to remain consistent with degree labeling then subwave (b) should take less time than minute ((ii)), the prior larger degree wave in the same direction. So far, OK.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
An additional chart and some commentary was added after the new open.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Just a heads up. Crude printed a double close key reversal today. May turn out to be just a pause, but something to note.
ReplyDeleteSee comment at 1:51 EDT, below.
DeleteTJ
Mr. Market does seems to be marking time...perhaps awaiting some event...?!
ReplyDeleteIs the max Wave Y can extend from wave W 1.382%
ReplyDelete..there is no such 'rule' for flat combinations; but if equality is the usual scheme, then one wouldn't want to stretch it too far. Still, for a regular correction the EWP says C is 'usually' 1 or 1.618 x A. They are not even firm on a hard limit for the C wave.
DeleteTJ
..and it might depend on futures v cash. Sometimes the cash doesn't get all the movement in price length that the futures market gets. Too, most of the initial measurements were in the cash markets.
DeleteTJ
Thanks TJ, very helpful.
DeleteES 15-min: here are some chart notes, using some Neely and The Eight Fold Path Method.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/M3JMEszB/
TJ
ES 15-min; over the high again. I would look to see if this candle reverses or not, and place a 'wave-counting-stop' above 4,415. Above there is hard to make sense of the count.
DeleteTJ
ES 15-min: wave-counting stop was hit. Harder to see where this is coming from. Will re-look.
DeleteTJ
Only other thing I can see from a corrective viewpoint, is that there is 'possibly' a triangle b-3 wave at the low on the hourly chart. That would make this leg an impulse. But the triangle sure is ugly. And, I would look to see a clear hourly reversal before deciding anything firm.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uNVq5vy4/
TJ
Thanks TJ:
DeleteAlso, the 4413.25 at 1.382 on your chart is very close to 4415.57 which is the 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from 8/19/21 (4338.5 low) to 9/3/21 (4540.25 High).
So far this morning, ES has rallied to 4421.50 - exactly one tick above the 4421.25 low on 9/27/21, before the breakout lower on 9/28/21.
TO..right I was noticing that privately, too. Didn't get around to writing it! Good job!
DeleteTJ
SPY has gap above at 442 will it fill? 30 min all trades https://www.tradingview.com/x/eKFXgu2U/
ReplyDeleteIs it possible without breaking rules to count from ATH to bottom in SPX as wave 1/A and now in wave 2/B ?
ReplyDelete..only works if Oct 1 - 3 is counted as 'five waves up'; not three. And that is very, very difficult to do. Not impossible, so a good alternate.
DeleteTJ
..oh, and only if the initial wave from the ATH to 19 Sep is counted as the :5 wave sequence option. Again, 'possible' but it doesn't look right and the measurements would be wild. So, still a good alternate.
DeleteTJ
Thanks, I have cash SPX bottoming on Oct. 4 unless I have bad data.
DeleteSPX - .618 retrace from ATH at 4444
ReplyDeleteHere is the current ES 4-Hr parallel. IF we start printing 4-hr candles above the upper trend line, then the 'b' wave will have taken too long, as there is only one or two more 4-hr candles to go.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YyzyKOYo/
TJ
ES 1-hr: also just of note - IFF the move off the bottom is counted as an expanding diagonal - rather than as the triangle option, at 4,420 then ((5)) = 1.618 x ((3)). But, she hasn't given up the ghost, yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DrZkiaIq/
TJ
..the triangle option 'does not' affirmatively answer the question, "did the b-3 wave get down to 90%?", as the ((e)) wave of the triangle falls short.
DeleteTJ
And, through a different lens, fwiw, the local volume profile has a big ole' valley in it. Might support the wave counting information.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Qej26jdf/
TJ
Interesting image, and it seems it marks distribution on the top and just when it's close to running out of time to violate time degree.
DeleteXerox the magnificent!
ReplyDeleteWe're not exactly starting out like Polaroid, yet! (From 120 to 0) lol.
Deletehttps://images.app.goo.gl/kBNeKedC1nVf6pbL7
TJ
Cfd (6hr) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/t2qb0fa40w1rkuj/6hr.PNG/file
I was wondering if there is a more recent long term chart other than the June 6, 2020 post. If not are there any plans to do one?
ReplyDeletehi PT .. comments are now 'under moderation' - meaning I have to approve them because of the mean-spirited spammers out there. So, give me some time when you post. I may be working on a chart at the time, eating, sleeping, etc.
DeleteTo answer your question: this long term chart was posted on 25 Sept, well after the 6 June post.
https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2021/09/full-description.html
TJ
Understood. Does the large amount that Primary B has exceeded the 2018 conventional top concern you at all?
DeleteOn the Dow it does not concern me too much, as the Dow only has a pretty exact 1.50 external retrace at the moment. This well within the EW parameters of 1.38 - 1.62 for a 'B' wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1brLHBt4/
Granted the S&P500 is chocked-full of technology stocks, and the NQ has a much younger birthday, my opinion is that the scenario might be slightly different for each (new low, not new low, etc.)
TJ
A few days ago I suggested keeping a look out for the potential hourly impulse in Crude. Well, as the chart below suggests Crude really messed up that count which looked good, with a potential flat for wave ((iv)), but then, that wave ((i)) got overlapped downward (..someone is clearly messing with impulses in channels), and this clearly leaves only the wedge count, a down wave, and now a 78.6% retrace. So, GW is correct that a local high might be in - especially now that current OPEC+ meetings are over.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Af56Etd0/
Also, I looked back, and it is very hard to pair up this longer down wave as part of, say, a diagonal on the daily or something. Will keep looking ...
TJ
..and IF Crude should go over the top again, then the up and down waves might be ((a)) and ((b)) of a larger diagonal 5. Tread gingerly, but keep aware of the count.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min; lower high and lower low off the prior high. Now back down to pierce lower channel boundary.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9vyEQrHk/
Chart considers the expanding diagonal from the bottom.
TJ
ES hourly: two hanging-men and follow-through downward for both lower. There is not full confirmation until/unless this hourly candle closes lower. ES 30-min first close below the channel.
DeleteTJ
..we are now down into that 'volume valley' shown in the 12:25 PM post.
DeleteTJ
ES hourly .. full confirmation of the two hanging-men candles, even though the first was negated by the second.
DeleteTJ
ES 3-min; let's see if a 'conventional' impulse can be made here.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HqnxSy2f/
Hopefully, it will tell us where we are. If wave 5 occurs will most likely be 0.618 x net[1-3].
TJ
ES 3-min; there's the new low. So, we have a couple of tick truncation top, as we might expect, and we have formed a conventional impulse wave down.
DeleteBoy is it nice to see that. I'm getting pretty tired of counting diagonals.
TJ
Chart updated below (still behind), but there is 4,388 and the benefit of good charting technique. Can it go still lower? It can. But the important item now is that a retrace holds the high.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MnePYYIn/
TJ
..have a good one all. Remember, tomorrow is the Payroll Employment Report.
DeleteTJ
Thank you TJ, interesting days and interesting your comments.
DeleteGN
Many thanks for giving us your updated counts, during the market session!
ReplyDeleteIt opens up a lot of insight for us aspiring Wave counters.
..welcome!
DeleteTJ
Aside - for the oatmeal eaters among us. :o)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/fy54xlfmvpjtr98/OatsCorn.PNG/file
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ