Thursday, October 21, 2021

Up Wave Without A Substantial Pull-back x((1)) ?

This is the best hourly count I see. There is nothing yet to imply that the up wave is over. It would be quite a short wave ((5)) if the wave ended here. But, it bears watching. Price has not gone over the all-time high yet on this index, but it could.

What we can see is that the 0 - ((2)) trend line has been broken to the downside, and that is likely the wave ((4)). The location of ((3)) is not precise. There is one way to count in which ((3)) is at the 0.618 extension of wave ((1)). There is also a way to count wave ((4)) as a triangle - which was shown in the cash market in the comments.

The hourly EWO did drop below the zero line meeting the requirement of +10% to -40% of the largest prior peak. There is also a smaller probability that wave ((4)) is further to the right on the chart as a flat. Again, this depends on any overlaps. But at this point the up move exceeded a 1.382 of the prior high and low.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe

23 comments:

  1. Hi TJ,

    Do you think this could be another (X), (Z) to complete ((B))?

    Thanks!

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  2. The movement from 13th day looks as some sort of thrust wave from triangle.

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  3. Interestingly, ES2! has made a new high, while (currently) ES1! has not.

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  4. ES 30-min: on a roll-over contract basis, ES has the new higher high.
    TJ

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  5. ES checklist checkup -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/ktbfdxon2tz5yq7/Demised.PNG/file

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  6. I have been living in the fields for the last month. Anybody look at a running triangle from July low to Oct 13ish low with the 34 ema and EWO?

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  7. ES 1-Hr: this wave ((5)) certainly 'looks' a lot better in terms of price length and time.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/AJIy8g2l/

    Beginning to break the ((2))-((4)) trend line in orange.
    TJ

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  8. SPY 30m OR reversal in progress. Eye on yesterday's opening gap.

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  9. GC (Gold Futures) Daily: price is coming down off the upper Daily Bollinger band after having made the 78.6% retrace level (probably as that w-x-y complex correction upward). Price is already under the psychological $1,800 level.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/8yYb8p74/

    Watch to see if today's high holds.
    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..just fyi .. there is a close-to-open pseudo gap at 1783.50, just because of the 12:30 time they calculate the settlement. Still, the gap shows up on the chart.

      TJ

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    2. GC pseudo-gap filled by one-click. L-O-D, so far is 1783.40.
      TJ

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    3. On Gold Daily - based on where the Bollinger Bands are - see prior daily comment - I do have a 'concern' for a triangle being formed before a C wave lower. And this is also based on a 78.6% internal retrace.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/xbpOQO3S/

      Again, this is 'assuming' today's high holds. Verify that!
      TJ

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  10. SPY 5-min: you know the folks over at Goldman Sachs have an eyebrow raised to see if this actual 62% retrace holds for the day, right? Will it? Don't know for sure.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/84EChC24/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ES/SPY 5-min; now back to 62%; can't start to draw a down trend line yet.

      TJ

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    2. ES/SPY 5-min; now at 78.6% (deep retrace - if the top even holds). So, IFF the top holds, then most likely a 'b' wave; not a second wave.

      TJ

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    3. ES/SPY 5-min: there is now downward overlap; so it is a question of the high holding. This is 'one possible count'.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/7XgXpKfT/

      If the high doesn't hold, then it is an even larger wave ((4)) at the low, and five-waves-up, with a very long internal fourth wave. To me it looked like that wave was 'so long in time' it should be a different degree [i.e. ((X))]. But I could be wrong.

      TJ

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    4. ES/SPY 5-min; downward wave is now too long in price for an 'upward' diagonal. Just ruling out a structure here.

      TJ

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    5. GL ..all .. I'll look at it after the close.
      TJ

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  11. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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