Here is the weekly chart. There are no changes to prior waves counted. The new information is that stocks and futures (with the exception of the Russell 2000, yet) have made a new all-time high. Also, the NYSE advance-decline line made a new all time high. Along with several other FED-related factors this suggests that upward stocks movements may not be over.
From a technical viewpoint, using the weekly chart 1) there is no wave two signature on the Elliott Wave Oscillator. 2) Price could attempt to form a better channel. 3) There could be alternation in the wave (X)'s. 4) Wave (Y) was not as long as wave (W), but a brief turn lower occurred at exactly the right time, and 5) IF wave A is in 'three-waves-down', one simply had to wait until price got to 90% of the high to suggest that maybe wave (X2) will be a Flat or Expanded Flat. It did.
I could be wrong.
On Saturday morning, an update of the 4-hr chart was added to this post. The chart shows that this up wave whether minute ((iii)) or minute ((c)) is best paired with the leading expanding diagonal off of the low.
The rationale is that the pairing results in a near 1.618 relationship at this time. Now, "most often" leading diagonals are "a" waves. And, if so, one might expect the tentative up channel to break and not support a fourth wave down. But that remains to be seen.
Have a good start to the evening and to the weekend.
TraderJoe
So C of (Y) was a leading diagonal?
ReplyDeleteI tried several counts in futures: try as I might I can't get rid of those overlaps. Also, a lot of people have suggested a triangle to deal with the overlaps. But the triangle really stretches out the timing of a (Y) wave. I don't know 'enough' about triangles and degrees to know if it works for 'time'. I know it can work for price. I don't 'know' it can work for time. But it might, and that's my alternate if things go to heck. But then why the new high on the a/d line?
DeleteTJ
Many perplexing things in this market. Speaking of the A/D line, compare volume on the recent wave down. versus the current one to a new ATH. Something does not quite add up imho...
DeleteNYSE Vol A/D line peaked in June. Lowest low since in Sept, and has not retaken its prior high in early Sept. (fwiw)
DeleteSPY peaked on 9/2. From 9/3 through today, total net buying volume 822M, total net selling volume <911>M. Not sure that's important, but there it is, lol.
DeleteJust bought the Neely book...Your opinion will be most welcome
ReplyDelete👍 thanks for your time and analysis. I continue to look higher until the fed inverts the yield curve. There will be volatility and corrections as we head higher with the fed tapering and raising rates. As long as we are not in a bear market, buying VIX spikes usually works including the latest one at 28. Your count does make me think about what could go wrong with my bullish stance.
ReplyDeleteAn additional chart was added to this post on Saturday morning.
ReplyDeleteTJ
NQ (wkly) - Uptrend intact - thoughts
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/u0dxaw0joycvnbu/NQ.PNG/file
GC (mthly) - Jury's still out -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/0msd1t5z0k6wyfl/GCm.PNG/file
In your second paragraph, you say: 4) Wave (Y) was not as long as wave (W)
ReplyDeleteBut, it looks to be twice as long. What am I missing?
Shorter in price. I think you are referring to time.
DeleteTJ
Yes, I was looking at the elapsed time. Thanks.
DeleteJust a fundy-factor to remember when considering who the Smart Money are:
ReplyDeleteStock Buybacks
TJ
Sector Rotation (market cycle model) - update
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/4q2rkutbhw8gdpx/SectorsMarketCycle.PNG/file
SPY (195m) - Pattern analysis (inverted H&S) - [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/86c5nax8rg1am4g/IH%2526S.PNG/file
https://schrts.co/UUGwUDsc
ReplyDeleteIt’s been 344 days since SPX violated the 200 dma. The 6th longest streak going back to 1960. These long streaks always have a mean reverting event, but it needs a catalyst. I believe the fed meets Nov. 3 and will announce their tapering plans. I think we probably don’t see the 200 dma violated until next spring. We shall see.
There is that saying "sell in May"
DeleteXLU/SPY - Early signs of Risk Off?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/3r292ois4x3kwxa/UtesSpy.PNG/file
Tj why dont you move to twitter, you will have a lot more audience and reach than over here at this blog. Unless you want to keep it small..you should easily be able to get 100 k plus followers in due time..i figured you out so much effort. More people should know abt you and your work.
ReplyDeletetoo hard to monitor the comments/replies.
DeleteTJ
ES (wkly) - First divergence
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/vbzcqf2qo796gqp/ESw.PNG/file
👍 nice work
DeleteAlthough divergences sometimes persist for some time, I do think that is noteworthy.So far as I am aware, the only corrective wave pattern that is permitted to exceed the high of the prior motive wave is an expanded flat. Some analysts still counting a 5th up in a larger motive structure. Divergence would be expected in either case.
Delete..you are not aware (lol). Also, the running triangle, also the double three or triple-three. Also, the expanded triangle.
DeleteTJ
Tbh, I have heard references to the 1st and third but have never seen either in a valid wave count or that could not be counted in a legitimately different way. Of course not having seen example is hardly conclusive. While my comment was overly broad perhaps, I was simply opening we had either an impulse up or an expanded flat. Not at all familiar with double and triple threes issuing in corrective ATHs. I have never seen an example.
DeleteIt's pretty clear you don't study markets much. This is the most famous "double-three" of all times: the DJIA from 1966 - 1974. The first (W) wave is a Flat. It's B wave does not go over the high. But, it makes a lower low. Then, it is the (X) wave of the "double-three" that goes over the high. BUT, the down move is in three waves not in five. Only the C wave of (Y) is in 'five'.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/llucevof/
TJ
That is essentially correct. I have not really. I have in fact read dozens of articles on the 1966 to 1974 period, and you mudt be well aware there are as many counts of that era as there are analysts, with some contending the initial bear market lasted only one year. There are diffrtences in how degree labels are assigned to long term charts, unfortunately for us non-experts.
Delete..say as you like to try to confuse the issue. The waves remain as they are.
DeleteTJ
Good morning. Here is the ES 30-min wave-counting screen (chart is lagged 10-min). Daily pivots are shown, as are nearby fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uD5uK8Bh/
Hopefully, all are capable of generating this screen by now. Intraday bias is up - as shown. This could change. Daily bias is up. Weekly bias is up.
TJ
First two green (up) fractals back have been exceeded higher.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: back down and testing intraday 18-per SMA.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: below 18-per SMA, past lower intraday band, and down to 100-per SMA, intraday.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: chart update showing the whippy open. 100-per SMA added for visual reference.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UqlilsBl/
TJ
ES 30-min: back to the 18-per SMA.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: now over the high - increases the likelihood of a larger fourth wave on the four-hour chart, above.
DeleteTJ
Courtesy of SentimenTrader - Margin Debt (chart is essentially Real Motion, % distance from a moving avg). If only the info were more timely.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/stocks-are-more-likely-to-soar-when-margin-debt-does-this/
SPY has now retraced 105%.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: chart update. Possible upward parallel, and watch for fourth candle close above upper intraday Bollinger Band. Probabilities getting lower of continuation (2 - 4%), not impossible.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/C5pZThvf/
TJ
ES 4th close over upper intraday Bollinger Band; probabilities drop to 1 - 3% (not impossible).
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: after 5 consecutive closes outside of the upper band, has closed inside the upper band, resetting the number of consecutive closes.
DeleteTJ
ES 60-min; doji candle - requires confirming lower close candles.
DeleteTJ
SPY (5m) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/iafl4v3thz3i0m3/SPY5m25.PNG/file
ES 30-min: another up (green) fractal added.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/etQ5CV2B/
TJ
ES 30-min: here is the intraday wave counting screen updated with daily pivot points, and local fractals. The intraday bias is currently up, the daily bias is up, the weekly bias is up. The intraday slow stochastic has recently lost its embedded status and bears watching.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yzB8J66H/
Remember, today is Tuesday. Economic reports come out between 9 - 10 AM ET.
TJ
😀 I never forget Taco Tuesday. Have a great day. Trade safe.
DeleteES 30-min: in terms of an actual count, this is one idea for it. It would be the longer fourth wave (iv) at the low, to the fifth wave (v) of ((c))/((iii)).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WQpWiKHS/
TJ
SPX - has reached the 1.618 extension of w1 from October bottom. Leading diagonal less likely?
DeleteSPY inverted H&S target reached/exceeded.
ReplyDeleteAt the 2.618 ext retrace, just above OR. Watching for [possible] OR reversal (and addressing opening gap).
DeleteSPY 15-min: here is the equivalent count in SPY.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WIKvrTHv/
The question is whether the large gap will be an exhaustion gap or not.
TJ
Here's a chart update: V = iii, approximately, but slightly longer.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LiDDWykx/
TJ
Fear & Greed (75, extreme greed) now highest its been since late 2020.
ReplyDeleteAnd vix up since cash open session while spx is up too.
DeleteTSLA sure looks like the Eiffel tower.
DeleteCertainly could be. Should be watched closely.
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/rx1byjxedybflzq/TSLA.PNG/file
SPY 15-min; back to the gap area.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vImn045t/
TJ
ES/SPY 5-min; into a fifth wave down.
DeleteTJ
Chart update: watch the truncation high on any retrace.
DeleteNow breaching wave ii/iv trend line in less candles than v.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dGsPmb1h/
TJ
SPY (30/195m) - OR reversal
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/qa70kz0z0lu5krb/Spy30-195.PNG/file
SPY 5-min: in the up direction; so far there is a wedge and a break of the wedge.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Jo3d8sJt/
TJ
SPY 5-min: now below the triangle. Watch the ((c)) wave high.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kpfyeXaf/
TJ
Regardless of what happens overnight, I would not like to see the up wave take any more time. It is currently twice as long in time as the down wave, and that should be sufficient. Any more, and I think the prospects for a wave lower grow dimmer.
DeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ