The $NYA has made a new high. The advance/decline line has made a new high. The Dow (YM) futures need to be watched to see if they exceed their truncation high. The ES futures have exceeded the 90% level of their decline. Internally, there is now more than a 1.272 wave up off the low with a higher high on the EWO.
The situation suggests drawing this tentative channel and looking to see if the channel holds or not. As I said previously, it is possible to go over the high. The $NYA has done that - as was commented yesterday.
The symbol (c)/(iii) > means this wave is continuing until a clear reversal is seen. And a wave (iii) is as likely as a (c) wave; but a 1.618 wave has not been attained yet.
Have a good start to the day.
TJ
(c)/(iii) looks like an extended 1st wave, 5 up (wedge shape).
ReplyDeleteDow has made a new ATH.
ReplyDelete..as has the YM future, now, too.
DeleteTJ
Russell 3000 and Wilshire 5000 also made new ATHs.
DeleteNew high for Dow will negate the "was possible" Dow theory sell signal.
DeleteAm I looking at this wrong? I dont have a new high in YM yesterday. ATH on 8/16 @ 35547 and yesterday - 10/20 @ 35541.
Delete@Dealer .. true when you use the roll-over (or active contract) comparison. Not true when you use just the 'same' contract month. Also, cash is over the high.
DeleteTJ
Have you noticed that the volume on this wave C/(III) is decreasing every day in ES? It is not the typical volume of a wave 3 that should be higher than the wave (I).
ReplyDeleteI suppose an expanded flat is still technically possible, but I would think even such a corrective move would occur with ND on a variety of momentum indicators. I was a total chicken ad exited my 450 calls too early!! Victim of my own confirmation bias... :)
ReplyDeleteMaybe I'm wrong, but I think that from the point of view of volume, this upward waves (since 10/04) seems more like a B wave than a new impulse, because in ES, the volume of the last drop (since 09/03) is almost twice as much as the volume on this rise. What is your opinion?
ReplyDeleteWhile SPX did make a new monthly October low, the candle body (so far) does not engulf September's. I have been looking at monthly charts now up to 5 years ago and have not so far discovered a single instance in which an index monthly bearish engulfing candle was immediately followed by a monthly bullish engullfing one. Another market first this month perhaps?!
ReplyDeleteIs just a broadening formation making a new low and a new high nothing out of the ordinary
DeleteOctober opened higher than the September close, so it won't be a bullish engulfing bar even if it closed higher than the September open.
DeleteThere was a monthly bearish engulfing bar in May 2019 which was followed by a lower low and a higher high in June 2019, however, the June bar wasn't a bullish engulfing bar because even though it made a higher high, it closed a few points lower than the May open.
There have been many other near misses as well.
A lower low with needed volume profile and a higher close could change that. The month is not yet done. Seems remote but not in a market where absurdities abound!
DeleteSPY (30m) eod -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/88uw59upgeiutnj/SPY30eod.PNG/file
IFF there is a higher high in the Russell 2000, then this count works.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/24ciXD6j/
TJ
So an impulse in Russel and your still counting this entire move up from vivid low as correction/b wave?
DeleteThe appropriate question is:, "why does Neely's 0 - 2 trend line work in the Russell, but not in the S&P 500?".
DeleteTJ
Neely also says B only needs to retrace 61.8% of A for a flat. Same guy.
DeleteThe more appropriate question is why do "we" believe that the 0-2 trend line improves Elliot wave counts. It restricts the probability of counting an impulse. I think that Elliott would have included that rule if he thought it was needed. Maybe it serves as another way of comparing possible counts, but I don't think you use it as a rule
DeleteSee 'more information' posted on the Russell 2000 index below at 21:57 ET.
DeleteTJ
IFF Gold goes over the prior high tonight; consider a ((w))-((x))-((y)) count.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Just FYI (SPX)
ReplyDeleteOn 9/20/21 @ 02:17 the low was 4305.91 3 or 5 waves down
On 9/23/21 @ 12:55 the high was 4465.40 correction an a/abc or 4 of 5
Anyway it is 159.49 points
159.49 x 1.618 is 258.05 points
On 10/04/21 @ 10:41 a lower low was 4278.94
Add 258.05 to 4278.94 = 4536.99
To what significance I do not know but we have a 1.618 wave up with respect to the first upward corrective wave of 9/20 to 9/23
Regards,
Who the hell knows LMAO
Here's a question one should ask -
ReplyDeleteAs the markets (take SPY for example) have roared back up, who's selling?
SPY - perspective -
DeleteFrom 9/2 high to 10/4 low: 21 days, -27.69 pts
10/5 to current: 12 days, +26.37 pts (95% recoup)
SPY traded ex-div on 9/17. The div was 1.43 pts (rounded) So the decline was actually 26.26 pts. Measuring waves (or doing any kind of TA) on SPY without adjusting for the div will always result in faulty numbers. That's why I always do TA on SPX, never on SPY.
DeleteHere is a little more information on the Russell 2000 Index, "born" in 1984. See Wikipedia for questions about birth date.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/y9Yib8nX/
I don't see any problem calling this an impulse, overall.
TJ
Question - your orange dotted line. I'm assuming that's an overlap notation? If so, why is part of ((2)) used rather than peak of ((1))? I've never seen that qualification for the overlap rule (which doesn't mean it isn't so, just odd that's it's not noted anywhere I've seen).
DeleteThanks
That's a very nice way to wrap things I must say. Thanks Joe I hope you know I'm very interested in discussing how to view things and never trying to "call you out"
DeleteSPY (mthly,wkly) - key levels
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/8n876e0hvsnftkk/keylevels.PNG/file
👍 thanks
DeleteAAPL (qtrly) - observations
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/wbwrngtlpu3t0h4/AAPL.PNG/file
SPX - if we are in a leading diagonal off the 10-4 bottom, then the presumed wave 1 should be overlapped at 4429
ReplyDeleteI am always curious about the great attention sometimes paid to the minutiae of wave analysis, when divorced from a firm establishment of the larger trend, at intermediate degree or higher. It seems to me if one is incorrect about the main trend, and whether a particular wave is motive or corrective, the count will ultimately be proven incorrect. I wanted to see a break of 4000 before becoming convinced the larger upward trend had changed. It seems to me the data we now have suggests it has not.
ReplyDeleteThe point is to try to determine if that very trend will continue or reverse.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GiijXROm/
The problem is that 'five-waves-down' does not always mean a reversal of trend. And the problem with 'round-numbers' is there are 'too many' of them. What is 'magic about 1,552? If the round-numbers are 'mid-points' you have the same problem: will price go through it or not?
TJ
Points all well-taken T.J. I freely admit I do not have a good technical rationale for some round numbers being indicative of likely price direction; it could be as simple a matter as programmed buying. The long tails on recent candles suggested to me big money was at work to arrest the decline, and while so far successful in keeping up-trend intact, not in any way saying that will not change. I believe an expanded flat remains a possibility.
DeleteAnd herein - on a much shorter time scale - is the analogous situation. Is it useful to do such analysis or not? Only you can be the judge depending on what your goals and objectives are. That is why I offer no trading or investment advice. I have no idea what your goals or objectives are.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UjVReW8j/
TJ
Definitely interested in correct application of EW methodology. My frustration stems from watching a protracted sideways consolidation that strongly suggests an upward break but not having the skill to postulate a valid Ew count that at least offers that possibility. I do realise the site is not about trading per se, and I do respect that, but if your readers are honest, I suspect most would admit to hoping that an EW count at the very least correctly informs the main trend!
DeleteThe term "main trend" is a completely undefined term. What is the "main trend" to an intraday trader is different from the "main trend" to a swing trader, which is different from the "main trend" to an investor. And, some people want to "ride" the waves of the 'main trend' - say it is up - by selling for profit at an interim high, and re-buying at an interim low: thus not going short.
DeleteFor this reason I use three completely defined terms: the 'weekly bias' is when price closes up over the weekly 18-wk SMA. The 'daily bias' is when price closes up over the 18-day SMA; and the 'intraday bias' is when - on a 30min chart - price closes up over the 18-bar SMA.
Again, what you do with these defined terms is completely up to you. You DO NOT need an Elliott analyst to tell you what the bias of the market is. It is simple math.
What an Elliott analyst might be able to tell you is when a trend has a likelihood - not a certainty - of coming to an end; or be able to analyze a corrective structure based on daily and intraday fractals.
Analyzing corrections is sought with difficulty. There are over 21 different types. So, the odds of picking one by random chance is less than 5%.
Again, what you do with that information is entirely up to you.
TJ
Courtesy of SentimenTrader - Big Money and Commodity Seasonality
ReplyDeletehttps://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/the-big-money-is-buying/
Good morning all. Possible ES 30-min triangle here.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cMmnftdP/
Chart behind by 10 min or so.
TJ
..and if not a triangle pointing up (more likely), then an expanding diagonal pointing down (less likely) .. subject to certain measurements, as usual.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: now a 78.6% upward retrace obtained; chart still a bit behind. Watch for a wave (e). IF one doesn't form and it heads to the high, then a Flat 'might' be considered.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sCiaheEw/
TJ
..fyi.. the wave has gone over the prior high without making a wave (e).
DeleteTJ
ES 15-min: five waves down off the high.
DeleteTJ
Courtesy McClellan Fin. Pub. - Treasury-Bund Spread
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/treasury-bund_yield_spread_shows_troubling_divergence/
For those not following the above discussion with Tachyon, here is SPY 5-min.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UjVReW8j/
TJ
Very helpful. Agrees with my own take. 😊
DeleteES / SPY 5-min; now slightly over the top; that is the second time/.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Nf8oG46l/
TJ
ES / SPY 10-min: can only conclude we did indeed have triangle ES (going in assumption from the overnight). A Flat did not develop.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EPc0ktxT/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ