Wednesday, November 3, 2021

Nearing in on B Wave Measurements

The question always with B waves is, "Will They Pan Out?". Price is now approaching the 1.382 Fibonacci external retrace of the down wave. There is more room if the market wants to push it, but the up count is getting quite mature.

ES Futures - 12 Hr - Near 1.382
 

Today, the FED announced its program of tapering which is slightly faster than the last version. Often, the Asia session adds to FED day gains, at least in the overnight. Maybe one of you might comment on why I listed the minute ((b)) up where it is located.

Have an excellent start to the evening.

TraderJoe


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37 comments:

  1. TachyonNovember 3, 2021 at 5:53 PM

    I guess the question I have is whether the AO is always conclusive. I frankly have no idea. It also appears to me ( I'll try to measure for confirmation) that wave (1) up of circle a has a third wave that is shortest, assuming I have the sub-waves properly assigned.

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    1. Elliott_TraderNovember 3, 2021 at 8:54 PM

      Again, view link below. When you have chosen the wave of interest to have 120 - 140 candles, as per the instructions in The Eight Fold Path Method, the AO is pretty darn good.

      For this 'whole rally' one now needs 3-day candles, as below to see the AO diverge.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/iZpFkZkA/

      TJ

      Delete
  2. sammyNovember 3, 2021 at 6:47 PM

    B wave is in the area of standard extensions, although 1.618 is not there.

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  3. GreywaverNovember 3, 2021 at 7:52 PM

    I would [guess] because if (iv) were where ((b)) is, it wouldnt overlap (iii), thus no correction of (iii) at all.

    ReplyDelete
  4. kvNovember 3, 2021 at 7:57 PM

    What is the target then for C wave?

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    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderNovember 3, 2021 at 8:32 PM

      We have hit one target today @ 1.382; the next is @ 1.50-1.55. See today's main chart.
      TJ

      Delete
  5. Elliott_TraderNovember 3, 2021 at 8:33 PM

    Answer to Quiz: It is simply because in the diagram below the P1 price drop is greater than the P2 price drop. And, especially because T2 (today's extensively long triangle) must be 'shorter' than it's higher degree counterpart, which is T1.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/VrZrJJBS/

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  6. GreywaverNovember 3, 2021 at 10:07 PM

    Gold (mthly) - thoughts on Gold momentum (RM) [if interested] -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/qqinszqf31ixy2m/MthGold.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete
  7. GreywaverNovember 4, 2021 at 7:24 AM

    Cfd (dly) early look -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/6ogcqsbjqh2nw9u/Earlylook.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete
  8. Steven MNovember 4, 2021 at 10:12 AM

    Is there any possibility that we are already in the Z wave up?

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    1. Elliott_TraderNovember 4, 2021 at 12:38 PM

      ..don't think so, as the $NYAD has recently made a new all-time-high. (Z) would imply the end, and it is highly unlikely to have an end to an up market without $NYAD divergences. I could be wrong.

      TJ

      Delete
  9. Elliott_TraderNovember 4, 2021 at 12:19 PM

    ES 1-Hr: well, here is my stab at the potential C wave count.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/PLn8L7Gk/

    There is no point to getting excited until overlap on i, down, occurs, and until wave ii low is taken out. This current wave 'could' triangle.

    TJ

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    1. Elliott_TraderNovember 4, 2021 at 12:25 PM

      p.s. if you didn't get this count, don't let it discourage you. It is one of the worst waves I've seen to count, ever.

      TJ

      Delete
  10. Elliott_TraderNovember 4, 2021 at 1:05 PM

    GOLD 4-Hr.. GOLD looks to be back-testing its prior 4-Hr up channel.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/hhOdFzZi/

    Caution: this, the back-test, 'could' happen a couple of times to lengthen out the correction further in time if the market wishes.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  11. GreywaverNovember 4, 2021 at 1:07 PM

    Z (wkly) Eiffel Tower in progress? (idea courtesy of Kimble Charting) -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/3czrhan3em7ohex/EifferT.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete
  12. GreywaverNovember 4, 2021 at 1:23 PM

    DXY looks to be trying to complete a 5 day continuation pattern today (upside). 1st HD target about 45 cents above (currently).

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  13. GreywaverNovember 4, 2021 at 1:43 PM

    Current Fear & Greed reading - 82 (extreme greed)

    ReplyDelete
  14. GreywaverNovember 4, 2021 at 3:32 PM

    Stocks above 20/50 - weakening and divergent -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/2fvisqwrf0tiks9/Stocks_abvove.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete
  15. Elliott_TraderNovember 4, 2021 at 3:45 PM

    SPY Intraday: Gotta have 'em on Wednesday, 'meh'.. on Thursday, Lol.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/HZ1aVKuG/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderNovember 4, 2021 at 4:14 PM

      ..neither SPY cash nor ES went over the prior high on the cash close. So, that leaves plenty of options.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/NbbJTB6A/

      TJ

      Delete
    2. TachyonNovember 4, 2021 at 8:45 PM

      I expect they both will. The impulse cohort calling for 4900. I am omly confident that we will tag 4700 or thereabouts.

      Delete
  16. GreywaverNovember 5, 2021 at 9:21 AM

    HD target at 4698.90 has been reached. Will now need to close above (and hold), or will suggest a change in direction. (Basis cfd).

    ReplyDelete
  17. GreywaverNovember 5, 2021 at 9:39 AM

    Cfd (dly) - couple of potential resistance areas

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/fy0b98juvhcojdx/dlycfd.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete
  18. RogerNovember 5, 2021 at 9:43 AM

    Amazing :)

    ReplyDelete
  19. TimHNovember 5, 2021 at 10:51 AM

    It’s interesting that the VIX & VXN are not at new lows with SPX & QQQ at new highs. 4713 SPX is a fib area I thought might end this wave. We shall see.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Elliott_TraderNovember 5, 2021 at 10:54 AM

    Good morning all. ES 30-min. Here are some pivot levels, a new channel, and some Fibonacci extensions for your reference, along with the current count.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/NRdvLLX6/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderNovember 5, 2021 at 11:06 AM

      I might note that the triangle appears to be a Neely/Prechter 'non-limiting' triangle where the (e) wave is within about 20% of the apex. This means the triangle's usual target (..the widest width of the triangle added to the breakout point) can be greatly exceeded. It was.

      TJ

      Delete
    2. TachyonNovember 5, 2021 at 3:01 PM

      Gap support says we likely head higher imo.

      Delete
  21. GreywaverNovember 5, 2021 at 11:24 AM

    HY Bond A/D line (courtesy of McClellan Fin. Pub.) -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/yt402n1x37cpf01/BondAD.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete
  22. Elliott_TraderNovember 5, 2021 at 11:48 AM

    ES 30-min: chart update. Wave four could triangle or go over the top, if it wants to alternate with wave two.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/R92wOZPY/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. TachyonNovember 5, 2021 at 1:22 PM

      Flag does suggest another pop higher. This is a rogue market and nothing surprises me anymore. We should see 4700 defended ahead of break higher imo. Gotta love MRNA!! That was glorious! Gonna be a penny stock eventually...hehe!

      Delete
  23. marcNovember 5, 2021 at 11:56 AM

    i believe we have diagonal down and working on a larger one

    ReplyDelete
  24. Kelly ONovember 5, 2021 at 2:42 PM

    Joe, regarding your Primary Analysis of 9/25/21: since ((B)) is now more than 2x of ((A)), and (Y) is now more than 100% of (W), has the bigger picture count post-((A)) changed? Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Elliott_TraderNovember 5, 2021 at 5:01 PM

    A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete

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