Just checking after the evening session resumed, and the daily ES futures remains with a slow stochastic reading that is no longer embedded. This could presage a trip to the 18-day SMA. If, instead, prices head higher it would take another three days to rebuild an embedded stochastic.
Today's down close was friendly to the possibility of a downward diagonal, but by no means was it definitive. Here is that potential diagonal on the ES Hourly chart.
Note that wave iv did obtain a level of 78.6%, with 62 - 81% typical of diagonals. Therefore, I would place a wave counting stop above this morning's futures high for this pattern.
Have an excellent start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks!
ReplyDeleteAside - BTC (2day) 3PDh, Tri-Day calc in progress?
https://www.mediafire.com/view/0tomoepuenua6yz/3PDh_TriDay.PNG/file
Diagonal potential is very interesting. It would prove my expectation of new highs (for a host of reasons) incorrect..,would not be the first time...
ReplyDeleteAt the risk of seeming contradictory, I must remind you that the alternate for such a count - depending on how it travels, and what overlaps it generates - is just the triple zigzag (w),(x),(y),(x),(z). Which 'could be' a fourth wave until or unless there is an overlap that can't be reconciled.
DeleteIf it comes to it, please don't say that I didn't advise such could be the case.
IFF (If and only if) a diagonal forms properly, then one must wait to see if a retrace does not go over the high, followed by a new low.
People tend to be impatient. Such is the nature of an Elliott wave count.
TJ
Got it. I am akways curious when I see market price action that looks to me like consolidation in an up-trend in the face of a bearish EW. Sadly I lack the requisite EW skill to illustrate a bullish alternative in such cases.
DeleteSPY 1-Hr has exceeded it's local high. -3 up may have converted to -5 up in cash. This would likely invalidate the downward diagonal.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Here is a chart: was it wrong to cite -3 up to 78% yesterday? No, it was not.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yaOb9Yky/
The three became five.
TJ
SPY30 HD of 468.62 from yesterday has been exceeded on closing basis.
ReplyDeleteSPY 4-Hr: new high or not, this is likely how this wave should be labeled.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zM7vrAId/
It is far enough along towards the top, that it is well-over 78%, and has five clear sub-divisions. So, even if it truncates, it is likely 'five-up'.
TJ
Agreed!
DeleteSPY 4hr - Some different features here -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/wy7ziib8zgmzbuo/Different.PNG/file
👍 thanks
ReplyDeleteAside - bounded/unbounded. Two different indicators yielding similar results [if interested] -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/rltqxjc8e5c73z3/Bounded_vs_Unbounded.PNG/file
Cash and ES did not make it over the prior high. This is a possible last ditch fourth wave (iv) at the late afternoon low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nsQp8yu5/
This is subject to overlaps, etc. There is not a large likelihood of diagonal yet, as price is not over the prior high.
TJ
Lol! The expanded flat 4th would be a typical bear-trap!
Delete$$$ (wkly) - the push continues to potential resistance area -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/gouixnb4sbu599p/%2524%2524%2524.PNG/file
https://schrts.co/QQhQbeGC
ReplyDeleteWhen VIX & SPX move up together we usually get a test of 50 dma.
SPXcfd/TNX (wkly) - what a difference a year makes
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/7q8sruy2oyksq5c/Ouch.PNG/file
Good morning all. SPY 15-min: the short term RSI and channel says a count like this is 'possible'.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8bfdcH5O/
As per yesterday, there is also a 'last ditch' fourth wave possible within the wave v. Time to watch closely.
TJ
There is a new post started for the next day, on the topic of GOLD.
ReplyDeleteTJ