Look over at the "trend line of interest" on the right hand side of the chart. This line has not been broken yet. This suggests that even if the line is broken it might only be a fourth wave yet. So, this is the alternate to the Minor B wave of (X2).
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| ES Futures - 1 D - Best Alternate |
On a four-hour chart, if we are counting with the trend, we should allow the market to prove whether this up wave is an impulse or not. It could turn into one if there is a fourth wave down and a fifth wave up.
Further, we know that the wave up to alternate minute ((b)) in the ES futures overlapped like a diagonal but did not function like one. The low of the potential ending diagonal was not taken out in less time than the diagonal took to build. And, in the Dow, it did not even form a proper diagonal, with a higher fifth wave so it may not be a leading diagonal - plain and simple. This would break the rules in the Dow for a contracting leading diagonal.
Others have a suggested a triangle for this internal movement to the end of September, and this was not lost on my eyes. It was just hard to figure how this would enter into the count. With the most recent movement and highs on both the EWO and RSI, it would now appear that IFF this current up wave can impulse, up, then it may not be Minor B of Intermediate (X2), and it may be Minor A of Intermediate (Z) instead.
I do not yet see this up wave as "ending a move" because the internals (A/D line, technical indicators, etc.) are too strong at the moment. So, there could be a Minor B wave lower in this alternate count, and it might overlap the prior high - by a little or by a lot.
Again, this alternate is operable IFF (if and only if) the current up wave can form a proper impulse. It hasn't done so, yet.
Let's see how it goes. Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
https://schrts.co/eWwKSQUE
ReplyDeleteI know, nothing seems to matter anymore, but…
Is it reasonable to assume If Elliot was alive he would be counting impulse from covid low ?
ReplyDeleteTriples (Neely) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/zhbjughb39gyjk3/Triples.PNG/file
Good morning all. DOW futures have gone over the high this morning. ES not yet.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Aside - Silver (dly) - measures
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/8vu4ez2v9ecerx0/Silverd.PNG/file
TJ thank you, any thoughts regarding this option?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/67e2o3puz0p6jmq/Expanding_Diagonal.png/file
..just another illegal count according to the 'rules'. If blue a,b are part of 1, then 3 is shorter than 1 in an expanding diagonal and that is a clear violation of the rules. In an expanding diagonal wave 5 > 3 > 1.
DeleteTJ
SPY (hrly) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ga2o6813cp5rpae/SPY1hr.PNG/file
Retesting bottom of OR following breakdown -
DeleteSPY 5-min: the red count would be part of a larger triangle; TZZ. The black count would be a diagonal lower: same three zigzags. Watch the invalidation level and if a new low forms.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VzwyVZku/
TJ
IFF the diagonal or TZZ invalidates, then there is this larger pennant in play which could be the larger triangle.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FSBdxzij/
TJ
In terms of the potential expanding diagonal, lower. First, it might only be an 'a' wave lower in a larger triangle or Flat (the Dow YM futures did go over the high). Second, it must exceed 4,681 lower before taking out 4,703 higher - otherwise it is not a diagonal.
DeleteNothing is conclusive as of this time, although there is clear downward overlap again at the end of the session.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ