Friday, November 5, 2021

'Typical' B Wave Measurements Met

Weekly Bias - Up
Daily Bias - Up
Intraday Bias - Turned Lower
Daily Slow Stochastic - Embedded

IFF the up wave from the October low is a Minor B wave, then today the 'typical' Fibonacci levels for a B wave have been met. Referring to the daily chart below, the market 'put tails' on the B-3 = 1.5 x A-3 external Fibonacci retracement level - very near the upper daily Bollinger Band.


The futures market hasn't closed as of this writing, but the current situation looks like the tail candle (pin-bar?) will persist. As with all potential reversal candlestick patterns, this one must be confirmed by a significant lower low & low close candle. That hasn't happened yet.

During the day, the intraday bias turned lower, and it is now fighting with the daily and weekly bias. The daily slow stochastic is still embedded. Again, the candle could only be a profit-taking candle so caution, patience and flexibility remain desirable until better confirmation is obtained.

Regardless, as regular readers here know one broker, Ira Epstein, urges in his YouTube & client videos that clients never buy over a daily Bollinger Band, and he is quite emphatic about it - even when the slow stochastic is embedded. Rather, he suggests that is where the so-called Smart Money is often taking at least partial profits. He recommends waiting for a much better pull-back before buying again.

If you have a question about Ira's trading guidance, you can refer to this paraphrase I put together several years ago at this LINK.

Have a very good start to your evening and your weekend.

TraderJoe

9 comments:

  1. Cfd version of chart above, and update to this morning's cfd daily -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/kdzz5cd3xiszhkw/cfddly.PNG/file

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  2. ES (wkly) Observations -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/ozcu9kj7br5emd1/ESwkly.PNG/file

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  3. IWM (wkly) - (log scale) -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/p1ru9ww4pegsdmt/IWMlog.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete
  4. PPI - long term (triangle?)

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/x5iuvhwsfrx1mvk/PPI.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete
  5. Real yields (S&P earnings) - (courtesy of Bloomberg)

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/vis1ha2iejlbsrw/real_yields.PNG/file

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  6. IF we are in a minor b wave up, then remarkably we will possibly see a new set ATHs in a correctibe wave after a minor c down to complete an intermediate A. This of course assumes the P4 is yet another expanded flat. Yikes...crazy market!

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  7. Gold/SPY (w/d) Early signs of basing -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/zdemonrlfs9y59m/earlybasing.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete
  8. There is a new post started for the next day.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete