In the very short term on the SPY 5-min chart, the upward correction to the right appears too complicated to be the simple zigzag of a diagonal. With the current movement upward - and perhaps with even more from the overnight futures - the correction appears to be in the form of ((w))-((x))-((y)) a double zigzag. These are not 'typically' contained within diagonals. See chart below.
Therefore, if the high is not crossed, then the downward wave might be an impulse in a wedge. One could argue there are five movements there, and the fourth wave alternates at least in time with the second wave - if not in extent. If the wedge should be an impulse, it might be followed by five more waves down or more. (There is one way it doesn't have to be if it is a larger c wave of a wave (iv), but that would make really a huge wave (iv) in time, and has lower odds.)
So, it might make some sense to monitor the cash channel shown on the left and see if the channel is broken to the down side after the holiday.
Enjoy the holiday, and have an excellent end to the week.
TraderJoe
SPY (mthly) - model combination (click to sharpen)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/wxpa8ev0w0wsdqq/FP_combination.PNG/file
Nice work. Thanks
DeleteTime to revisit? Baring another stick save...we should get a gap and go down tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteThe Primary B top
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/kXqSTYfz/Screenshot-14.png
SPXcfd (4hr) - 200ma tag
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/k8bzwas4ldxmhxp/4hr200tag.PNG/file
This is a VIX spike that should be bought, but I only see 3 waves down. IFF a C wave lower, I’m looking for 5 waves lower. Any thoughts
DeleteInteresting comparison between Friday`s candle and the candle of September 19. Almost identical highs with one important difference. Higher prices on September 19 were rejected (long wick), on Friday the exact opposite (long tail).
DeleteGood observation. It probably means we bounce around above BB a few days before a reversal.it’s always safer to wait for a VIX reversal before buying SPX. As a reminder, the VIX stays below 30 - 92% of the time according to CBOE.
DeleteSPY 15-min: here's an update with about an hour to go.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Iopz4AFS/
Cash is on the lows.
TJ
Seems a base channel connects 0-2. Acceleration connects 1-3 if not mistaken.
Delete(per J. Kennedy)
..seems you passed the test! few others care to look up terms, cross-check results, etc. I know all they want to do is 'make money', not necessarily learn a skill that can stay with them forever. I hope it changes, but I know how many people are. Yet, look at how many people/sites were saying 'higher', when a review of an upward correction tilted the probabilities to lower. Oh, well, many people want to 'do' before they learn. That's ok. It is like how the typical American boy learns to ride a bike. You get on, daddy pushes you, and little is explained before-hand about how the wheels spinning faster helps keep you upright all by itself. Then, after they skin their knee after falling down, then they 'might' learn about the 'gyroscope effect' that can help keep them upright and prevent the fall in the first place. Some learn about this; and some never do. Not saying they can't ride a bike without it - just learning some of the principles can help someone get really good at it if they want to.
DeleteTJ
TJ, Just another take or option that could be playing out in the big picture. My labeling is probably poor and I have the primary C unfolding in a 5 wave decline which should be a ABC down instead of 5 waves. I find the Nikkei very interesting.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Iopz4AFS/
..seems you copied my link, and I'm not sure why.
DeleteTJ
My mistake here's the correct chart Nikkei
Deletehttps://i.postimg.cc/K8n1XvTv/Screenshot-15.png
SPXcfd (dly) - model(s) progression update
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/jht5h72s5dbicpv/modelprogression.PNG/file
CL1! (2day) - update
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/9p2husc41i4yh4g/CL1%2521.PNG/file
JNK (2day) Risk off
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/k2aec97dsbg90m3/JNKro.PNG/file
[IF] this is accumulation, the new low [could] be a spring in progress I believe.
DeleteJust an item to note: NYSE Adv/Dec were 470 / 2,857 or roughly 1 : 6.0; so while this is clearly in the impulsive catgeory (> 1 : 3), it is not in the 'kick-off' category yet. Kick-offs are usually in the 1:9 - 1:12 category. So, while impulsive, the actual 'kick-off' or 'breadth-thrust' may occur later in a down move.
ReplyDeleteTJ
https://schrts.co/NaZdVjbH
ReplyDeleteVIX - one thing that stands out to me is the higher lows from ‘18, similar to the 90’s. I think we need to break below this up trend and 15 to keep this bull running. Otherwise we are setting up for a nasty bear market.
This chart shows just that. Even as SPX has moved higher, VIX has as well, enough to keep the ratio below the '18 peak.
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/sc1wbqw5ref6yvt/spxvixW.PNG/file
IWM (2day) - Fakeout?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/z2vemacww6pv6wy/BreakoutFakeout.PNG/file
Definitely was
DeleteSPY weekly price is still above 20 ma, last week volume was below the 50 ma, 2 week ATR hasn't spiked, STO is embedded and double divergence on the AO. Trend should continue unless volume jumps to 1 million shares next week and price drops 6%. If that happens I'd expect ATR and Vix to spike.
ReplyDeleteSPX (wkly) - informational (supplemental) - (click to sharpen) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ijoansgzy7wvt5h/SPXw31016.PNG/file
https://imgur.com/GQ5EDsP
ReplyDeleteWe shall see what the overnight brings.
VIX - all gaps get filled eventually. I think this one happens quickly.
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. This could take a while to resolve, yet. This is SPY cash, but futures have a different look and can be counted as a larger contracting wedge impulse lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ndF5T55N/
TJ
Thanks ET. Maybe Santa rally is waiting on more government stimulus
DeleteThere is a possibilty that the high on spx was made under extended flat B.
ReplyDelete...And Fri low was a C of that flat? I am on the same page.
Deletethx
Same
DeleteGreat spot for a 1,2,i,ii.
ReplyDeleteNot allowed anymore. ES turning red at upper channel line.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/GQ5EDsP
SPY (15m) - 200ma at the .618 retrace area
ReplyDeleteTest?
ReplyDeleteTLT/SPY (wkly) - something to keep an eye on
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/7imdctgtyzsp4kb/tltspyW.PNG/file
Gold (dly) - Pullback & then more downside? (click to sharpen)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/tifuukdk9o4v3zr/Gold3-10.PNG/file
GW, have you noticed the large positive divergence in crude going back to August? Shows up on weekly and daily chart. Any thoughts?
ReplyDeleteET
I was having trouble posting last night unsure why. Sorry for test post and multiple post if any.
If you are talking about RSI on daily, I do see it. The move down may yet to be complete, so its tentative at this point. Plus, we'd have to get back above the late Oct peak before it would come into play for a possible target. If price closes below the Aug 20 close, it will negate. Good eye though! :o)
DeleteBought some today. GW maybe you see that possible head and shoulders forming? Can't post a chart now, apologies
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/YXiLtdV i mean this for oil
DeleteES 4hr - Looks like a 5th of exp diagonal (assuming it goes beyond length of 3rd).
ReplyDeleteSPXcfd (4hr) - Poss exp diag.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/fwye22titvwz7xn/ExpDiag.PNG/file
10-2 Yield Curve (wkly) Update -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/59d2naspwk5bevz/10-2YC.PNG/file
Correction - early '20 1st X was not an HD (mismark)-
Deletealso, the within the anti in Apr-Mar '21, small subtle RD(2) hidden div (not marked).