It is now possible to see a completed up count in GC (GOLD futures) in the daily time-frame. Yesterday was a pin-bar against the upper daily Bollinger Band. There are no guarantees, of course, but a minute ((b)) wave would be located against the 78.6% retracement level.
Importantly, the up move would have taken more time than the down wave, and it would have also closed the apparent gap left in the middle of wave (iii) on the way down.
This count is only looking for a minute ((c)) wave down to finish an expanding diagonal larger Minor A wave down within an even larger triangle count.
Obviously, the pattern invalidates over the June high. And, yes, price is still above the 18-day SMA, so the daily bias is still UP, so be careful what you do with this information as any down wave could start out by being very, very, bumpy. In the short term, I would place a wave counting stop above the current high, and reassess as needed at that point if the stop is hit.
Have an excellent rest of the day.
TraderJoe
SPY 15-min: back down to channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NcOqDwjQ/
TJ
IFF SPY trades below 467.90, then it becomes the largest down wave on the board (this 15-minute chart), and 'may' represent a degree change.
DeleteTJ
here is a chart update, showing same.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Yzl4CNNR/
TJ
..there goes 467.90, this is now the largest down wave, and likely represents a degree change on this time-frame.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PRlZjpx9/
TJ
In GOLD 30-min: might be worth going down to the half-hourly chart or hourly chart and see if anything develops lower. This chart is a bit behind, as usual.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JCP4gjYj/
On the hourly chart, GOLD 1-Hr currently has an 'outside' bar which hasn't closed yet. Something to watch.
TJ
ES 5-min, reaches 90% downward retrace. B wave of flat or next impulse, lower.
ReplyDeleteTJ
After reading “ Inflation Anxiety Drives Gold Near Highest Level in Months” in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal I looked at gold. Daily gold isn’t out performing spy, looking at gld/spy ratio. Then we also have a strong dollar. I’d assume gold gains are limited.
ReplyDeleteI was counting a ZZ lower, now in four of C down. So far not looking to me like start of a C up following a completed B wave, at least not yet...
ReplyDelete..since there are two topics here, GOLD & ES/SPY please remember to either hit the 'reply' button to the appropriate comment, or reference the instrument in the lead-in to your comment.
DeleteTJ
SPY 1-min: does this pattern look familiar? Lol.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Aa722dCb/
TJ
..wedge breaking lower. If it's a triple-zz, then the bottom won't hold. If it's a leading diagonal (where the retraces are 'not' 62%), then the low of the pattern would hold.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ELvsnjC1/
TJ
just fyi - ..pattern retrace is now 50%.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KMRsPEXv/
TJ
SPY 5-min: price now piercing a local trend line higher.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DZnE9GaE/
TJ
Cfd (hrly) - give me a break. :o)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/c11d4ywlfilt8r1/hrly.PNG/file
Thanks so much, the us dollar embedded bullish on it's daily slow stochastic reading today.
ReplyDeleteEurusd (wkly) update to prior -
ReplyDeletePrior -
https://www.mediafire.com/view/e1laiiaczp7wrd1/EurUsd.PNG/file
Update -
https://www7.zippyshare.com/v/pTlzcFFt/file.html (click to enlarge)
GOLD Daily:
ReplyDeleteHey TJ, could you count from the top of august 2020, please?
Thank.
I have already done that at this link.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2021/08/follow-up-on-gold.html
TJ
A look at the 6 currency pairs comprising the DXY (wkly) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/z52s8xq40uwyr4m/Components.PNG/file (click to enlarge)
SPY30 - testing upper end of falling channel, and OR midline. This following OR breakdown earlier.
ReplyDeleteFWIW - Nasdaq has issued its 14th Hindenburg warning. Returns have been negative 3-6 months out most of the time. I’m not sure this works anymore with a manipulated market. Maybe tapering will be a catalyst. I would not bet on it.
ReplyDeleteThe last confirmed omen did not see a signigicant market decline. I do think the elevation is owing to CB buying prowess. At some point they will fail but till then, the bull run persists.
DeleteES 4-Hr - a lot depends on if price gets over the high or not.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VWx3hwUO/
Barrier triangle (based on whippiness), or diagonal. For the diagonal it would be good to see >62% retraces.
TJ
NQ has already gotten over the prior high.
DeleteTJ
The low close at your ((4)) compared to first pb low after ((5)) - higher close,
DeleteRSI lower plot. Pos. HD, suggests retest of ((5)).
4715.25 HD target (ES)
DeleteGold has a strong positive correlation to DXY. I looked back in history (to 2005) and I could not find a positive correlation with a falling 200 ma ratio like in my chart. I'll also note the correlation is strong .85 which I noticed that trend doesn't last long. Any input is appreciated.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MIYVks45/
Bill
DeleteI think your observation is a clue that global factors are at play behind the move in gold, or at least they are more prominent than the 'typical' domestic currency strength/weakness. Plus, the bond vigilantes have little or no portfolio left to sell and central banks have little incentive to hike interest rates which would drive up fiscal costs. Could be the making of a perfect storm.
What a long strange trip it 'hasn't' been for ETSY (mthly/wkly) - [if interested] -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/9pwxz8hlbep4c7l/ETSYmw.PNG/file
There is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ