I am only observing that there is now a 62% or better retrace from a possible wave (i) of a diagonal. This means nothing else at this time.
This could be a second wave lower (ii) of a diagonal if additional minor new highs are made. Otherwise (i) is 'the' high. Price also came down to touch and exceed the 18-day SMA as we mentioned was a possibility yesterday.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
An interesting issue .. the Dow & the Russell 2000 don't seem to be able to make the same or similar diagonals from the location shown. They have already broken the equivalent of the invalidation low.
ReplyDeleteTJ
I'm Thankful for your patient guidance - have a Happy Thanksgiving TJ, and everyone, as we live through a historic epoch.
DeleteBTW, I note the RTY has fallen below the highs (2346.20 & 2342.90) of March and June this year before the breakout over 2308 early this month, tested yesterday and today (2300.90 and 2300.30) following a three wave move from the 2460.80 spike (exhaustion?) high. We may not have to much longer for direction from the broad market.
The YM Monthly chart shows a decisive breakout over the 35490-35491 Fibonacci cluster which reasserted itself as support for the 35486 low on 11/19 and a couple of intraday lows on 11/23 at 35502 and 35489.
John Hussman's latest - https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211120/ - concludes:
Here and now, market conditions are characterized by:
1. The most extreme valuations in U.S. history, on the measures we find best-correlated with actual subsequent market returns over the past century, and even in recent decades, coupled with lopsided bullish sentiment and historic levels of margin leverage;
2. Deterioration and divergence across measures of market internals that we believe to be reliable gauges of investor psychology toward speculation versus risk-aversion;
3. The largest preponderance of overextended syndromes – typically associated with intermediate or cyclical market peaks – that we’ve ever observed in history.
Not a forecast. Not a “limit.” Not a market call. Just sharing what we’re seeing.
Still, it’s fair to add that we’ve never seen such a thing.
Thank you for your analysis and time you give. Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
ReplyDeleteWelcome...and the very same to you.
DeleteTJ
CVI (wkly) 2 for 1 ?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/3by40o8r75lq4t2/CVI.PNG/file
Thank You and Happy Thanksgiving GW:
DeleteI suppose the 11/23 release from the SPR will help relieve some supply-chain issues for the refiners and marketers.
And, IFF it should be 'the top', then it could be counted like this - with a triangle before the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uSf8bXS1/
TJ
Reminder: FOMC minutes scheduled for 14:00 ET.
ReplyDeleteTJ
TJ -
ReplyDeleteYou did a work up on US$ (likely in May/June sometime). Daily or wkly, can't recall. Is there a way to search for that, or do you have a link available?
Thanks
This is my long term view on the U.S. Dollar Index.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/66Mu1xKu/
TJ
..this link just clarifies the internals of ((C)) of W.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/atpwcSDp/
TJ
Happy Thanksgiving to all!
DeleteThanks to chart contributors.
ReplyDeleteHappy Thanksgiving.
GW, Sorry for not responding work etc. If I follow trading view correctly I divided the 2 etf’s. John Murphy suggested the 200 ma I’d assume slope of 200 ma helps. I have 3 charts I’ll post 1ST GLD/SPY still showing GLD higher lows with SPY outperforming. 2ND QQQ/SPY Q’s above 200 ma outperforming SPY. 3rd Q’s prices moving into the alligator’s mouth but I’d like to direct attention to this indicator at the bottom SRSI. Thanks to Howard Wang’s article in Stocks and Commodities magazine. Sell RSI is a price indicator, range of open and close relative to high-low range. Looking at the Q’s volume has spiked higher and SRSI suggest take profit or at least no buy signals. Bill Williams would not suggest a sell, which has often left me whipsawed. Double divergence on the AO is very possible wonder what SRSI will show.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/q0r3jlZL/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/y8mcbBjw/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/i51DJlta/
My question relates to how you have the ratio, then SPY, then GLD. Did you do three separate charts, and then overlap to show as 1? Thanks
DeleteNo nothing complicated just use / to show ratio.
DeleteEnding Diagonal 1978 DJIA (dly) - What am I missing -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/6y49iorbjmuhvcu/WhatamImissing.png/file
Waves 4 - 1 don't even overlap. And there's a Flat in 2.
Delete..also .. 3 longer than 1. In short, if you just move wave 1, one trough to the right and wave 3 one trough to the left, it just counts like a regular non-overlapping impulse with a flat fourth wave. It's a bad & unfortunate example in the EWP. There are a few of them.
DeleteTJ
Yep, saw the flat and non overlap so knew we had a problem. I'm just wondering who picked this chart and marked/labeled it. (Frost or Prechter, lol).
DeleteHappy Thanksgiving everyone!
ReplyDeleteHappy Thanksgiving to all & thanks for your continued support of the blog!
ReplyDeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPX/VIX (wkly) - update
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/sc1wbqw5ref6yvt/spxvixW.PNG/file