Today - amidst a lot of noise - we showed that this ES 4-hr trend line broke to the down side. As soon as the cash market opened, there was an impulse to the down side, and then consolidation the rest of the day.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Break of Recent Trend |
For those who care, we suggested at least noting where the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels are located. For those who don't care - oh well. Note the EWO is red and declining.
On a slightly tighter time frame, there may be some benefit of recognizing a crossover in the 1 Hr EMA-13 versus EMA-34 and seeing if prices follow that lower, as below.
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| ES Futures - 1 Hr - EMA Cross |
Currently the count is just viewed as incomplete - like that math class I didn't finish in high school. We may be making a triangle on the ES 5-min chart, but that remains to be seen - subject to all the usual requirements. There certainly is a bunch of overlap in the consolidation, and it has been taking a fair amount of time.
Since the Dow (YM) futures made a high on 8 Nov, it is possible that same bar is the high on the ES.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
If that Nov 8 high is a truncation in spx then I can count 5 down and potentially 3 up at today's close. ES potentially a diagonal from that point. It could be a very interesting overnight session.
ReplyDeletePossible, but don't rush it. Fourth waves are usually 'longer in time' than their second wave counterparts.
DeleteTJ
BDI - there's a school of thought that considers this a leading indicator -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/0l3l98m9tuavk30/BDI.PNG/file
Cfd (dly) - late look
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/w22gefmtcim7vch/Latelook.PNG/file
Good morning all. As far as I can tell, we have five down from a truncation high and then five-up back to the area of the prior wave ((4)).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EW7GD8zl/
TJ
Fascinating. It would suggest the possibility that neither the initial move down not the current one up is complete, visit to prior 4th notwithstanding. Interesting!
DeleteGood morning all. As far as I can tell, we have five down from a truncation high and then five-up back to the area of the prior wave ((4)).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/SUUmQokd/
TJ
I also don't see too much wrong with viewing it this way.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/40B4SG8V/
TJ
Tick tock tick tock on that Evergrande $148MM bond payment due today. Maybe the Fed is right that inflation is "transitory" because we're about to enjoy a credit event. Safe as houses.
Deletethat wxy, was the count i gave you yesteday tat your diagonal was ending coming after an expanded flat.
DeleteES 5-min; there is now a 90% down wave. Possible the up wave was a very elongerd -3, not a five in a miscount.
ReplyDeleteTJ
..yep; now through the low.
DeleteTJ
..elongerd = elongated. lol.
DeleteDXY (dly) Movin' on up -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/cwbyoe00t3tmq0q/DXYdly.PNG/file
SPY30 - current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/is9khvhmbrk86mh/SPY30Curr.PNG/file
We have reached the top of the noted congestion area on price, as well as the noted next sup on RM.
DeleteRSI bouncing off 20 level (currently)
DeleteLooks like wave 1 overlap in DJIA on presumed 5 down. Am I missing something?
ReplyDeleteMaybe a wave 2 where I have wave 4 and now 3 down....
ReplyDeleteI don't see anything too incorrect about this. The market retrace did go beyond 38.2% slightly.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7ywf235u/
But, I do think until we get a clear fourth and fifth wave down The Principle of Equivalence applies. The exponential moving averages will likely continue to move apart on this move.
TJ
Did we just witness the coolest irregular wave 2 evar today? c of 2 up completed into the close. b down of 2 was a doozy.
ReplyDeleteCfd (dly) - first close below the Tline (8ema) since Oct 12th.
ReplyDeleteThere is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ