Devil's Advocate - 2

In the effort to play "Devil's Advocate" the issue that bothered me most was the first move off of the 2020 Covid low. On daily charts, it looks like a 'three'. And it certainly was another one of these 'grinding' waves up. I took a very long hard look at it this morning, and asked the question what could be the error? The only "Elliott compliant" count I could determine is a slightly convoluted Minute extended first wave within an Extended Minor first wave. While I don't care for it much, there are no Elliott Wave rules violations I can find. The ES 12-hr chart is below, not cash, to insure that all price movement and time is accounted for.

Again, I freely admit this count was done after the fact. It is done in an attempt to learn and to see if there any degree violations. As far as I can tell there are not. Wave minute ((ii)) is the longest correction in price and time, and it is the larger degree wave after minuet (iv).

The wedge shape is clearly outlined. There is a thrust over the wedge which results in a minute fifth wave which is shorter in price and time than minute ((iii)). So, the overall sequence is ((v))<((iii))<x((i)). And that does fit the extended first wave guidelines. There is no overlap between minute ((iv)) and minute x((i)). And, no part of minute ((iv)) travels into wave minute ((ii)) territory.

Next explored is the Neely 0 - 2 trend line. And in this case, the 0 - ((ii)) trend line clearly cuts off a third wave ((iii)).

So, if this count is correct, the conclusion I come to is this: the 0 - 2 trend line works for the case where wave three is the extended wave in the sequence. (This is similar to the situation for The Eight Fold Path Method). But because in the extended first wave case the pattern is expected to form a wedge, then the 0 -2 trend line may not, and likely will not show all of wave 3 above it, and that makes sense from the shape of the pattern about to develop.

It needs to be clear, I do not fault Glenn Neely for making the generalization. Rather, it is highly likely that there were an insufficient number of extended first wave cases to study to recognize how there could be a difference.

P.S. I have shown the above count at the Minor wave 1 level. It could very easily be upgraded to the Intermediate (1) level simply by adjusting all the wave degrees up one level, and so in the lower right it shows or (1).

This is the second post this weekend, and yesterday's post should be read to better understand this one.

Have a good rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe