Thursday, February 11, 2021

Whippy & Indeterminate

We followed the waves closely overnight and today. It would be nice if there was more to tell you. It would be more exciting than boring. But at the moment - on the hourly chart - all there looks to be is three-wave sequences down from the recent high.


Obviously, one pattern could be a triangle that breaks higher. Another pattern could be part of a diagonal that eventually moves lower. As such, it is pretty much dependent on the pattern to see how it finishes. Still, with the daily bias still up, one can't rule out a return to near the upper daily Bollinger Band. But, one can not strictly rule out a move lower here, either. It's just that the latter likely has lower odds than the former.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe

22 comments:

  1. ET or GW, could financials be peaking? XLF is at 07 highs.
    Thank you for you work!

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    1. XLF wkly, one perspective -

      https://funkyimg.com/i/3aJcN.png

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  2. Update on Stocks above 50ma -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3aJbS.png

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  3. Hi TJ, many thanks for your daily post. I've been quiet but still reading every day. I agree with your title: indeterminate. We have two waves on both sides that touches the boundary of the diagonal. We won't know until a 3rd wave hits the boundary and then we know it will go in the direction of the boundary with only 2 waves.
    Maybe "Indeterminate" was your masterplan so that Mr. Arthur Knopf doesn't push you under the bus this week...smart move!

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  4. Over the last decade there has been a lot mergers and buybacks and the supply of stock has been greatly reduced even with the recent IPO and SPAC’s. Then you add zero interest rates here and negative around the world, the liquidity keeps flowing to our stock market. It’s all good until it isn’t, and with margin at ATH we’ll now quickly when this breaks down as the market will take the elevator down.

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  5. For those that utilize stochastics, a couple of HD related patterns you may find of value. If interested, investigate for your own determination. :o)

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3aJeJ.png

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  6. We are still lean to Central Banks balance sheets. Since 09 it has been hard to get a correction in this area.
    When this correlation breaks absolutely nobody knows.

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  7. Early morning look at the 4hr -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3aJUS.png

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  8. From my observations, protracted battles around round numbers are always won by the bulls...without exception:price consolidation. Unless the current battle resolves in a manner different from every previous one I have seen, the break from this price range will be upwards....

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    Replies
    1. Whooped 'em again Tachy!
      ... and the beat goes on on on on on ...(Sony & Cher)

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  9. i think it's a trap, maybe wishful thinking, but 5 minute chart on spy looks more like a bear flag than a breakout. eh, probably wrong

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  10. We got a squeeze going on. Which way does it break? For those looking for a place to park cash I own a preferred MNR-C that pays 6.13% until possible call 9-‘21. Super safe and I own a ton of it. Ex-div. today, par $25. It will stay anchored to $25 - $25.40. ATB

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  11. Morning all

    10yr getting some love ..the fed going to have to step in soon..the rise IMO against fed mandate. Gl all, have great day :)

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    Replies
    1. They can certainly try. The coming avalanche of corporate bond defaults are already being strongly hinted at imho...

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  12. GW - thank you for the introduction to Heiken Ashi candles. Very interesting

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    Replies
    1. Yw. Some have found the smoothed version(s) in tandem with regular candlesticks of value as well.

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  13. Bigger picture sure looks like an unfinished five wave move up off the Jan lows, with an incomplete fourth underway...

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  14. Update on 4hr -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3aKsk.png

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  15. There's the upward break. We should clear 4000 based on consolidation duration methinks...

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  16. A new post is started for the next day.

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