At present it looks like we have five-waves-up, completed, and have started a down wave in the ES 2-hr futures.
Again, wave ((iv)) might be a triangle in its entirety, or it might be counted as (w), (x), triangle (y). Either way, wave ((v)) is shorter than ((iii)) which is shorter than (i). The wave ((iii)) location has been overlapped downward. The Elliott Wave Oscillator is below the zero line again.
If Minor C is completed, then 3,650 should be exceeded lower. If Minor C is not completed, it might be possible to downgrade each of the wave degrees to minuet degree (i) - (v) and have minute ((i)) of C be at the upper right. I'll be studying the chart later to see if anything prevents that from a degree perspective. Right now, the triangle is telling as it was not a running triangle and is possibly the first regular triangle in quite a while.
A gap lower would help clarify whether new local lows are to be expected.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Stocks above their 50ma - deja vu ?
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For those that viewed the recent post on Sto RD/HD and HD/RD - (a recent example of both for price series you may recognize, if interested) -
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If it is an impulse why w3 breaks the 0-2 line?
ReplyDeleteI answered that both above and in a previous post. Neely doesn't specifically say that the rule holds for "all forms" of impulse; like above where the first wave is the extended wave and not the third wave. But, also, I have shown just one way the third wave could have ended earlier (w)-(x)-(y) to keep that line in tact. There is even a way to consider that it ended even earlier. It might be able to be moved back to the peak on the 5th. Not entirely sure.
DeleteTJ
Th trianlge-like patterns have certainly been confounding. I have never seen such an amazing plethora.Great reminder that not triangles are the same! I imagine a move and close below 3900 wouuld re-affirm the idea of the "regular" ones being penultimate patterns.
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ES 30-min: very possible - at this point, and with upward overlap - we've only had an a-b-c lower, where c = 0.62 x a.
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TJ
Current 30min -
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I’ve had no power for 3 days. Did I miss anything, lol.
DeleteYou must be in the great state of Texas!
DeleteGood guess. Unprepared state of Texas.
DeleteTSLA - something to keep an eye on (imho) -
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Inteteresting how the 3900 level was agressively bought yesterday. Machines at work? If my thesis regarding protracted round number battles holds true,the bears will loose this one as well...
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I would prefer we close the gap and get over with.
DeleteTell me about it! :)
DeletePre-open look at 4hr -
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Posited 4th exceeded.
DeleteGood morning. ES has a lower low this morning, so, if we are going further lower it is probably by either diagonal or multiple zigzag.
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TJ
..updated with today's pivots (classic calculation).
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TJ
ES - if we hold 3810 on pullback, I’m viewing that as bullish and could rip higher from there. Below there we probably get a large correction.
DeleteTim .. views and opinions may be substantiated or not. You provide no rationale. It is much easier to just have a more objective opinion, like .. "a daily close below 3,859 .. the 18-day SMA shifts the daily bias to negative".
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TJ
ES touches S2 daily pivot. (Prior one was mislabeled, apologies).
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TJ
notably also the cash .23 retrace from end of Jan low
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Certainly possible before going higher. That HD target is way up there by extended fib. Very close to each other, interesting.
DeleteFurther thought. [IF] the bottom of the channel were at the March '20 low, that would put the channel midline virtually where the channel btm is on chart above. That would make a bit of difference. :o)
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DeleteNAAIM overbought again
TJ-
ReplyDeleteDo you see possible exp diag on 30min cash?
Thanks
No ..contracting.
DeleteActually, spoke too quickly .. the distinction between the expanding diagonal ..already done ..and the contracting diagonal is 3,918 as follows.
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If 3,919 is exceeded higher, then must assume the downward wave was the expanding diagonal.
TJ
Just curious, why wouldn't (couldn't) your i be iii? and iii v?
DeleteThanks
..I'm not saying "couldn't", I'm saying that in the futures, the overnight of the 16th into the 17th was that complex wave that might have been a triangle. Remember, this chart .. ??
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So, I have to go with a price dividing point.
TJ
Roger that.
Delete..and I think just 'a' in that chart was an expanding diagonal.
DeleteSPX 15-min; so far, so good - both legs have at least 62% retrace. But, ultimately price would have to hold around here, and make a new low.
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TJ
..as far as I can tell, cash has just busted the contracting diagonal, and may be in just a multiple zigzag, or had an expanding diagonal from the top .. checking the latter again on futures.
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So far...gap resistance...
ReplyDeleteYep. Have retraced between .50-.618 of gap area (so far).
DeleteGiven the 1.382 downward wave, this might be the next best option on cash and futures. It seems to work on both. Gap could fill or not. Very hard to say but no problem if it does.
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TJ
..the important item from a degree standpoint, is that since the second upward wave (from this morning) is 'longer in price' than the prior upward wave, then they are likely of the same degree, or else, this wave up will be of a higher degree.
DeleteTJ
So, would a failure to reach a/w suggest what Neely calls an irregular failure, and wouldn't this suggest a strong move down to follow?
DeleteThanks.
..if it does, it would 'very likely'.
DeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
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