Yesterday, we were counting downward, showed the potential Head & Shoulders formation on the ES 4-Hr chart (also below), and suggested there was possibly a very difficult diagonal forming in the downward direction. After the H&S target was met near 3,800 - 3,810, then prices began a spirited rally. The H & S level attained 3,804 was also at the 50% retracement of the entire prior up wave we showed as minute ((i)) through minute ((v)) below.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Five Waves Up and 50% Retrace, so Far |
The upward count is correct in form with five waves including a triangle fourth wave. Now, it is a question of whether they are minute degree waves to Minor C, or minuet degree waves to minute ((i)). As far as I can tell there is nothing in the wave sizes to rule out a further extension of the Minor C wave, and it was clearly indicated this could happen. Prices do need to get over the top for that count to occur.
If prices continued downward, it would likely be as a diagonal. If they don't, the choppy move can be counted as an a-b-c correction. Clearly, the 3,800 level has to be breached lower to continue a downward count.
The NQ futures have a much deeper wave traveling downward to almost breach the 01 Feb low, but they didn't. They also pierced the lower daily Bollinger Band and then rebounded into it. The ES did not touch or pierce the lower band. Neither chart ended the day with the slow stochastic in over-sold territory.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Last wkend Qs post:
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Update:
https://funkyimg.com/i/3b4h7.png
97 million shares pushed -DI way over previous +DI peaks. Looks like a bullish reversal bar but it will need one heck of a bounce to push +DI back over -DI.
DeleteThanks for your post today, I had to step 1 time frame out to get a clear picture. Not as advanced as you and I do like Bill Williams methods.
Thanks GW & TJ for your work here.
DeleteQqq has a cleaner count. Appears to be in w4 lower.
DeleteShould have said - ended w4
DeleteNDX took out its 1/29 low today.
ReplyDeleteRSP vs SPX -
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TJ - how probable is a count of a series of 1-2’s lower from ATH. As long as we stay below w2 at 3930 area.
ReplyDeleteThat would break degree labeling because the claimed smaller degree ii, would be larger than the claimed larger degree 2, and that is no good! Also, see my comment below at 9:27 AM ET.
DeleteTJ
Good morning all. Here is the daily intraday wave counting screen with updated daily pivots (standard calculation).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ty7b6
TJ
If they are going to avoid a breach of yesterday`s lows, Powell and the boys are gonna have to get busy! VIX threatening...
ReplyDeleteYesterday I counted a-b-c down and listed it in the post. Today, without clear upward overlap, I have to wonder if we aren't getting a large sneaky fourth wave. There's no telling until after the open, but it is the only way I see to get 'five down' from here.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ty7j5
TJ
I just deleted the diagonal comment, the diagonal 'can not' have a 'Flat' wave ii; it 'must' be a zigzag.
DeleteNow we have a inverted H&S set up over the last few days with the ABC count.
Delete..and with 'potential' wave iv, at the previous wave micro ((4)), I think it becomes an issue of whether the overnight futures high holds. The overnight pattern is very bizarre, and does not have to be a simple zigzag (as say in the case of a true diagonal lower).
DeleteTJ
Talk about rogue waves. Looks like Powell and the gang hard at work! Lol!
ReplyDeleteES 5-min - 'best chance' measurement for a Flat wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ty8ww
TJ
..beyond there, the odds get really low of a down wave follow-through.
DeleteThoughts on 4hr NQ -
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Alligator avgs still spread and falling on above.
DeleteQqq retesting broken TL. From 280.
DeleteES 60-min; since the 'potential' flat broke, the next pattern to consider is this upward expanding diagonal, where each of the legs is a "three", so far, as requires that micro ((5)) become longer than micro ((3)).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tyatj
TJ
..wave ((5)) would become longer than ((3)) above 3,916.00
DeleteDo you think YM daily is in (Z) of the triple wave? It has looked bullish while ES and NQ were down this week and sure enough today... apologies if you've already discussed this. I have been extremely busy as of late and I do not find recent YM post within search bar.
ReplyDeleteI'll look at it for you.
DeleteHere you go. (Sorry, bad link the first time). I think that is a pretty hard claim to make because on the YM 2-day chart, this last wave down did not contact the lower wedge trend line. It looks like the Dow is just beating the other averages to try to make a 0.618 wave (Y) at this point. I said this wave possible on the ES, too. Maybe Dow will impulse, and maybe ES will diagonal there. Not sure yet.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/I66lwYAN/
TJ
For those interested in NatGas (wkly FCG)- (this goes along with a prior post highlighting the current seasonal).
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ES 1-hr; the 3,916 level was just exceeded higher. An expanding diagonal is valid.
ReplyDeleteHere is the intraday wave counting screen; clearly the up waves works as a diagonal; and it is a question of if/when a retrace starts. For that, I'd like to see price do a clean break below R1, and perhaps back-test it.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tycgd
TJ
..price now sitting on R1.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/tycmk
TJ
Yippee! I also counted 5 ZZs up! :)
DeleteI'm telling you. You can't make this stuff up. Triangles and diagonals all over the place. There was a marginal new high after only 'three-waves-down', and 'perhaps' they are setting up for a Flat, or Expanded Flat correction. Here is a one minute chart.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/tydf1
Total trash waves.
TJ
NDX looks similar...would have to be leading...
ReplyDeleteThere is a new post started for the next day.
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