Time Study of Correction Degrees - ES Futures

The ES 2-day chart contains the waves as we have labeled them so far. The purpose of this post is to just examine the degrees involved in corrections and confirm whether or not they fit degree labeling concerns. First, here is the chart.

ES Futures - 2 Day - Correction Time Study

The first exercise is to start at the lower left of the chart and count the first five non-overlapping minute waves up to Minor A. The next item to note is the length in time of the entire "running Minor B correction" which is 16 two-day bars. I still contend this correction is the only way to make an approximately equal wave to Minor wave A up in time, as a corrective B wave. This is followed by another five non-overlapping minute waves up to Minor C of Intermediate (W).

Then, we note the Minor A wave down is longer in price than the Minute ((c)) wave down in Minor B and the Intermediate (X) correction is longer in time than Minor B correction. Since it is longer in time it should be 'either of the same degree or one degree larger'.  Since it is the largest correction on the board in both price and time, we initially select Intermediate (X) for this correction, the larger degree than the Minor wave. We note it is longer than 16 bars by comparison (upper measurement), and it is 20 bars in total (lower measurement).

Next, we move over to the right-hand-side of the chart. Here is shown 16 bars from the Minor A wave contracting diagonal. And we note that the Minor B wave in total is longer than 16 bars, but less than 20 bars. The conclusion we reach is that it just fits! In other words, it is longer in time than the first Minor B wave which means it should be of the same degree or one higher degree, but it is shorter in time - and price - than the Intermediate (X) wave. This is shown by the vertical lines clearly delineating the length in bars of the correction. It is one bar (two days) shorter! And, because it is shorter in time than an Intermediate wave, it can, in fact, be a Minor wave.

So far, the degree labels fit like a glove. 

So, we are now in the Minor C wave up. And it becomes a question of whether this wave is subdividing or not.  With that in mind, I had a look at the recent C wave up in view of The Eight Fold Path Method in the ES 2-hr chart, below.

ES Futures - 2 Hr - Impulse with x((i))

As the chart shows, with 119 candles the Elliott Wave Oscillator shows both a shallow second wave and a pretty clear fourth wave signature, probably in the form of the triangle we referred to in earlier posts. The wave would have the form of an extended first wave. So what is not to like about the wave? Well, in this case minute wave ((iii)) would break a line from 0 - ((ii)). This breaks Neely's guideline. But, as the Fibonacci ruler shows, wave ((iii)) could be located at the 0.618 Fibonacci extension. Now, while Neely doesn't specifically say whether the 0 - 2 trend line for 3 must hold for all wave shapes - regardless of which wave the extension is in, I think it is ALSO possible to resolve this conflict if wave ((iii)) ended earlier, and the fourth wave is a complex w-x-triangle-y. In other words, there is a triangle, but it is only part of the correction. This resolution might allow both guidelines to be met.

But, the location of the 0.618 Fibonacci extension is more or less providing blinding evidence in this case of the extended first wave. So, that likely means that the fifth wave, minute ((v)), should be shorter in price than minute ((iii)).

Readers of this blog with curiosity can also use the first chart in this post to resolve another conflict in Neely. (Hint: it's near the beginning of the wave rather than the end). Can you find it? If so, leave a comment. This is the second post this weekend, and if you have not read the first one yet, you might like to.

Have a great rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe