Futures popped higher overnight, then began to reverse after the morning economic news reports. The short term chart looks like this. Confirmation is needed of trading below the x wave before having more confidence in a larger move lower.
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| SP500 Cash - 5 Min - Back-test of Wedge |
The slightly longer term ES 2-hr chart from the Minor B wave low looks like this.
It is likely that at least a 0.382 retrace should be made; and a larger decline is definitely possible. In the cash market it is possible to count this up wave with an extended fifth wave as posted in the comments previously. The longer term daily counts remain the same.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks T.J. Great stuff. Even if we see only a three wave move down. it sure looks to me like we do need a lower low to complete the current correction.
ReplyDeleteThanks TJ. I’m expecting a shallow 3 wave pullback, but starting off with 5 micro waves down then maybe we get a larger correction.
ReplyDeleteDJI Cash achieved new highs (by very few points) in the afternoon corrective process. (if tradingview quotes are correct.) This would indicate that the last wave UP is a B instead of a 2. Stockcharts shows a double top at the same level. That would be 100% retracement. Do you have more reliable prices?
ReplyDeleteSorry, I refer to b/ii on the 5-minute chart
DeleteGood morning all.. a possible larger wedge.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tsl10
TJ
Pre-open look at 4hr -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3aHuw.png
Thanks TJ & GW
DeleteDow doesn't seem in a hurry to let off the gas. Feels and looks like a plateau that'll last a few days, very similar gut feel and look to this time last year. Perhaps it is the C wave without the 5 wave subdivide to complete (Y)...but market just opened. DIA new high (again)
ReplyDeleteES 15-min, here's an update. Looks like someone threw-up over the wedge. On an ES 30-min chart, there would be a 30-min outside range candle lower; possibly hourly too.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tsm5s
TJ
..ES 15-min appears in back-test mode. The most recent 15-minute fractals have been established.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/tsn6j
TJ
.. ES 15-min, new morning low. Back-test didn't last long. First fractal back has been exceeded lower.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/tsngq
TJ
doom on everything - look at gold even :)
ReplyDeleteES 15-min & 30-min; lower highs and lower lows that 'can' be counted as nested 1,2's.
ReplyDeleteYep! They are fighting the decline tooth and nail, but market torpidity just might prevail...!
ReplyDeleteCurrent 5min cash -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3aHNV.png
ES 15-min, 'better confirmation level' exceeded lower in what looks like a iii of 3 wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tspai
TJ
Agree
DeleteWe also hit the wedge downside target.
ReplyDeletesloppy head and shoulders on /ES looks like target would be 3860's
ReplyDeleteI had 3890 for measured wedge. If correct, they will reclaim 3900 by the close.
Deletedaily bear flag on aapl tells me we could go much lower, but I will keep this in mind as it's so rare to see a short trade bright green towards end of day! :)
DeleteLol! So very true. They do seem averse to any decline of more than transient duration.
DeleteMoving up to the 2hr TF cash -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3aHZd.png
Should the current "bar" complete as an uptick, this will "set" the RSI pivot low for a possible pos. HD. If it plays out, it will negate the reg. hidden div.
Delete.618 area reached from this morning's down move. I hope that was a 1 wave with the big 3 overnight....
ReplyDelete