Here is a chart I did earlier in the day on the Dow futures (2-day interval).
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| Dow Futures (YM) - 2 Day - Higher High |
Given the higher high it is possible the Dow is extending towards the (Y) = 0.618 x (W) level. We said in many posts that such a thing was possible. The Dow futures (YM) settled at 31,958. The chart was done before the settlement. For those counting the potential five-wave contracting diagonal, at 32,445 the futures would completely become incapable of forming a contracting diagonal because a fourth wave down, (4) - if (X) were (2) - could not remain shorter than wave (2), and overlap wave (1) or (W) in this case, and that would break the 'rules' for a contracting diagonal.
Neither the NQ nor the ES futures yet closed over their prior all-time-high.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
ES - inverted H&S projects to 3995, where a cash fib level is at.
ReplyDeleteIf pullback is over and it looks like it is with 5 waves off the bottom, VIX should move to 15
ReplyDeleteTNX - 1.47% gap closed. Next gap at 1.68%. Fib at 1.56%
ReplyDeleteMorning all
DeleteLooking like TINA may have competition. GL all
Good morning. Here is the ES intraday wave counting screen with updated daily pivot points (classic calculation). A modest overnight pull-back occurred.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tytn5
TJ
..we got the Flat I referred to at the end of the day, yesterday. But now the question is whether that correction will become more complex to extend in time.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/tytte
TJ
..it could be the first flat (like a-3) in a larger flat, or even one of several more constructions.
DeleteTJ
if one backs off to the hourly chart like this one (using RSI because there are not 120 candles on this time frame), a tentative up channel can be seen.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/tyu53
If the Inverse H&S is to play out, the it is likely prior support/resistance should be respected if the channel is eventually broken to the downside. The RSI support is only tentative (dotted) at this time.
TJ
..morning low has been marginally exceeded lower.
Deleteflat-x-zigzag is another common way to get the correction deeper and longer in time (one of those 'other constructions' I referred to for a second wave).
DeleteNQ 4hr - waiting/watching for clarity -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3b6Hg.png
Q’s appear to be in 5th wave down. May retest 300 area, I hope so.
DeleteES 1-hr; now down to 38.2% from the high. That would be a minimal second wave, but can keep on going. Channel can be revised like this, at this point (others possible).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tyv2f
TJ
..at 3,885 ES is in contact with 18-day SMA.
DeleteFor those interested in GDX (wkly) -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3b6LH.png
look at that mammoth head and shoulders on the weekly! 20 dollars in the cards. Thank you
DeleteIs there a possibility that today wave ii of the diagonal downward finished and iii started?
ReplyDeleteGood question ..see comment @ 02:46 pm, below.
DeleteCurrent look at the Qs (wkly) -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3b6UA.png
👍 thanks
DeleteAdd'l note: TL from Mar to Oct lows (not shown) has been broken (currently).
DeleteI’m looking at 3 to touch TL. from 180
DeleteAlso broken
DeleteNQ (4hr) - 1st HD target tagged and bounced (bar not yet closed).
ReplyDeleteVIX flagging action suggests bulls not yet out of the woods.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure you have lots of questions at this point. I do, anyway. That's because an awful lot depends on whether we take out the lows or not. I can currently find several ways to count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/G1xxAYIS/
If we count the triple-zigzag upward yesterday as an expanding diagonal, this 'could be' the deep retrace of the diagonal, only. If we count the triple zigzag as just a triple zigzag it could be (x)? If it can be counted as a-b-c, up, some evidence on the 4-hr chart, then it could be (ii), of a contracting diagonal downward.
One item of interest is the 'speed of the decline'. That wouldn't seem to fit too well yet with a continued expanding diagonal, and might better fit with a contracting one, as an 'a' wave down, if an upward count is disrupted.
Bottom line, highs or lows must be broken to better determine the count. And there is a lot of 'algo risk' between 3,800 and 3,900.
TJ
Thanks for your daily effort and counts. 👍 👏
Delete..welcome.
DeleteA closer look at NQ (30min) -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3b6Yq.png