Wednesday, February 24, 2021

DOW's new high

Here is a chart I did earlier in the day on the Dow futures (2-day interval).

Dow Futures (YM) - 2 Day - Higher High

Given the higher high it is possible the Dow is extending towards the (Y) = 0.618 x (W) level. We said in many posts that such a thing was possible. The Dow futures (YM) settled at 31,958. The chart was done before the settlement. For those counting the potential five-wave contracting diagonal, at 32,445 the futures would completely become incapable of forming a contracting diagonal because a fourth wave down, (4) - if (X) were (2) - could not remain shorter than wave (2), and overlap wave (1) or (W) in this case, and that would break the 'rules' for a contracting diagonal.

Neither the NQ nor the ES futures yet closed over their prior all-time-high.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe

29 comments:

  1. ES - inverted H&S projects to 3995, where a cash fib level is at.

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  2. If pullback is over and it looks like it is with 5 waves off the bottom, VIX should move to 15

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  3. TNX - 1.47% gap closed. Next gap at 1.68%. Fib at 1.56%

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    1. Morning all
      Looking like TINA may have competition. GL all

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  4. Good morning. Here is the ES intraday wave counting screen with updated daily pivot points (classic calculation). A modest overnight pull-back occurred.

    https://invst.ly/tytn5

    TJ

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    1. ..we got the Flat I referred to at the end of the day, yesterday. But now the question is whether that correction will become more complex to extend in time.

      https://invst.ly/tytte

      TJ

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    2. ..it could be the first flat (like a-3) in a larger flat, or even one of several more constructions.

      TJ

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    3. if one backs off to the hourly chart like this one (using RSI because there are not 120 candles on this time frame), a tentative up channel can be seen.

      https://invst.ly/tyu53

      If the Inverse H&S is to play out, the it is likely prior support/resistance should be respected if the channel is eventually broken to the downside. The RSI support is only tentative (dotted) at this time.

      TJ

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    4. ..morning low has been marginally exceeded lower.

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    5. flat-x-zigzag is another common way to get the correction deeper and longer in time (one of those 'other constructions' I referred to for a second wave).

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  5. NQ 4hr - waiting/watching for clarity -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3b6Hg.png

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    1. Q’s appear to be in 5th wave down. May retest 300 area, I hope so.

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  6. ES 1-hr; now down to 38.2% from the high. That would be a minimal second wave, but can keep on going. Channel can be revised like this, at this point (others possible).

    https://invst.ly/tyv2f

    TJ

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  7. For those interested in GDX (wkly) -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3b6LH.png

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    Replies
    1. look at that mammoth head and shoulders on the weekly! 20 dollars in the cards. Thank you

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  8. Is there a possibility that today wave ii of the diagonal downward finished and iii started?

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  9. Current look at the Qs (wkly) -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3b6UA.png

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  10. NQ (4hr) - 1st HD target tagged and bounced (bar not yet closed).

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  11. VIX flagging action suggests bulls not yet out of the woods.

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  12. I'm sure you have lots of questions at this point. I do, anyway. That's because an awful lot depends on whether we take out the lows or not. I can currently find several ways to count.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/G1xxAYIS/

    If we count the triple-zigzag upward yesterday as an expanding diagonal, this 'could be' the deep retrace of the diagonal, only. If we count the triple zigzag as just a triple zigzag it could be (x)? If it can be counted as a-b-c, up, some evidence on the 4-hr chart, then it could be (ii), of a contracting diagonal downward.

    One item of interest is the 'speed of the decline'. That wouldn't seem to fit too well yet with a continued expanding diagonal, and might better fit with a contracting one, as an 'a' wave down, if an upward count is disrupted.

    Bottom line, highs or lows must be broken to better determine the count. And there is a lot of 'algo risk' between 3,800 and 3,900.

    TJ

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  13. A closer look at NQ (30min) -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3b6Yq.png

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