This morning's lower low wave was very near the 1.382 external retracement level as shown at the bottom of chart below, which is of SP500 cash (15-min).
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| SP500 Cash Index - Diagonal i and Correction (Failure?) ii |
Because the down wave this morning was shorter in price and time in both the cash and futures than the first down wave, lower, it can either be a micro ((B)) wave or a micro ((X)) wave. The micro ((X)) wave is shown above. If the entire corrective count is micro ((W))-((X))-((Y)) to this location then the wave could be a failure wave and induce a much larger third wave lower.
For completeness, if the up wave we are currently in decides to form a full-on impulse, then the wave could possibly avoid becoming a failure wave, as below.
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| SP500 Cash Index - Diagonal i and Correction ii |
In this case, the fourth wave sub-micro (4) should not overlap sub-micro (1) unless the up wave was to make an expanding ending diagonal - which, again, are pretty rare.
The first chart has a fair chance of it being correct, show it is shown first. One needs to keep an eye on the overnight futures to evaluate the prospects for either case.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
30min (cfd) as we head into tonight -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3aUJY.png
It would be interesting to see whether the posible impending third down will announce itself with a violent demoliton of ES 3900...!
ReplyDeletevery much looks this way, and the DXY held support of it's breakout. thank you!
ReplyDeleteES futures do appear to have downward overlap. Only bullish way out of it is with expanding diagonal upward -- very, very rare versus a more common third wave lower.
ReplyDeleteTJ
A bit off subject.. Some thoughts on RSI referencing Cocoa (mthly/daily) if interested-
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Now looking to me like 4000 has to be considered as a real possibility....
ReplyDeleteGood morning all .. ES 15-min has truly done the rare thing and created an expanding diagonal. Wave ((5)) is already longer in price time than wave ((3)).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tv-z5
Now, the question is whether it is over or will exceed the 3,936 high. It can but it does not have too. The market is adding in the additional risk of these wild swings. As IRA says, if the high of (yesterday's) outside day down is taken out in two trading sessions, it can spell a trip back to the upper daily Bollinger Band.
P.S. There is one way that further highs are possible, too.
TJ
I think c may extend giving gold time to finish correction channel.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: here is the intraday wave-counting screen with updated daily pivot points (classic calculation). The first down (red) fractal back has been broken lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tw0n6
TJ
Cash - 15min. Has a H&S set up.
ReplyDelete4hr - observations
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A closer look on the 30min -
Deletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3aW1K.png
ES 30-min; the 09:30 am candle is now a valid fractal, and has been marked as a 'key marker'. Because the entire upward wave is > 78.6% of yesterday's downward wave, it must be considered as an 'option' for a failure wave. But, right now price is still closing above the intraday 18-SMA.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tw21u
The Bollinger Bands are beginning to curve inward, however.
TJ
ES 30-min intraday; first close below the 18-SMA. Bollinger Bands continue to narrow in. Slow stochastic pointing lower, but neutral.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/tw2tv
TJ
ES 30-min; break of 'key marker' fractal lower, and down to lower intraday Bollinger Band. If counting downward, this suggests a 'wave-counting stop' at 3,928, as noted.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/tw38b
TJ
30min update -
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Cash filled yesterday's gap (just).
ReplyDeletewee the big 3!
ReplyDeleteES 30-min - now a break of the next fractal lower @ 3903.50.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tw3uo
TJ
Would be nice to see this 3900 dog-fight finally resolved...Yikes!!!
ReplyDelete15min cash -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3aWai.png
👍
DeleteNeckline at 3885
DeletePrice testing Tline, 45wma, 200ma (all running together and flat) on 15min.
DeleteES 30-min; futures have upward overlap of 3913.30; watch the wave counting stop closely. One way a downward wave can proceed is by expanding diagonal in the ES, but not above the wave-counting stop. It was a bit curious that the downward wave in ES was 1.27 and not 1.62.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tw4ng
In the NQ the downward wave was 1.62, and it has not overlapped upward yet.
TJ
Here is the NQ with the 1.62 downward wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/I2xrElYc/
TJ
..another option for the ES would be a fourth wave 'running triangle' with the new lower low .. which might allow the slight overlap to be acceptable. We'll see.
DeleteTriple nested 1,2 on NDX perhaps....
ReplyDeleteJust for discussion -
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ES 5-min, possible fifth wave down after failed double-combination to avoid final wave of fourth overlapping with first wave? NQ has not made a new low just yet.
ReplyDeleteIt would look something like this ...
Deletehttps://invst.ly/tw5m8
TJ
There is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDelete