Thursday, February 4, 2021

Still in a Larger Wedge

Here is a two-day chart of the ES futures, specifically for one reason : to show the larger wedge.


 

Still trying to adhere to degree labeling, the best count is also applied - given all of the overlaps from the (X) wave to the current time. The Elliott Wave Oscillator still shows a divergence with today's new all-time-high.

We know that the wave from the most recent minute ((a)) to minute ((b)) - although in a wedge - was not a true diagonal as the start of the wave was never broken lower. We pointed out the important fractals; they were never hit.

Sometimes wedges will pop over the top before they make a low beneath the wedge. We'll see. Price remains above the daily 18-day SMA at this point and therefore has positive bias. Price is not up to the upper daily Bollinger Band, yet. The 0.618 Fibonacci relationship is overhead by a fair bit.

The lack of overlap with Intermediate (W) at the most recent Minor B wave low just barely prevents us from calling this a diagonal. But - that could happen in the future. Showing Intermediate (Y) at or near this location might allow a diagonal count later - if and when overlap with (W) should occur.

Have a good evening,

TraderJoe

27 comments:

  1. Thanks for the update!
    Update on Stocks above their 50ma -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3ayRi.png

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    1. 👍 I pay attention to divergences in this indicator.

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    2. Very interesting GW. One of the most fascinating thing about this market has been how bearish signal get repeatedly negated.I think I mentioned candle-stick patterns and distance from M.A previously. Plowing highet on narrowing breadth is certainly another. I see we also have both a green VIX and green futures this morning and that used to spell trouble for the bulls, but not necessarily so these days, lol!

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  2. Daily (cfd) with multiple HD targets -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3azma.png

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  3. 5 minute chart showing 5 waves down in futures? FWIW https://invst.ly/tpwa5

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    Replies
    1. I think the trend remains up.

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    2. haha for sure! still watching to see if today we may get pullback, i don't think anything serious yet.

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  4. Good morning all. Here is a possible 30-minute impulse I'm following; checking to see if it behaves appropriately.

    https://invst.ly/tpwn5

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..price has broken through the EMA-13 to the downside; this may be signs of a fourth wave in progress, along with the declining EWO.

      https://invst.ly/tpw-i

      TJ

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  5. Market liquidity ..the terminator of technicals..Gl all

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  6. ES 1-day: a couple of other items to just note for information. 1) At the high today, the ES tagged the upper daily two-day trend line - as best as my software allows me to tell. 2) If the ES were to trade above 3,935 to 3,940 then it would likely 'not' be able to form a diagonal because a fourth wave would have to be longer than a second wave to overlap the September high.

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..as it is right now; overlap in an upward diagonal wave is possible and would - to this point only - count acceptably.

      TJ

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  7. ES 30-min: price tagged the EMA-34. More confirmation of a down wave, probably a fourth wave in progress.

    https://invst.ly/tpx8a

    TJ

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  8. How bout a neg-D on the 60ty..take a shot at short..short leash. :)

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  9. Some add'l perspectives on 30min -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3azzb.png

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  10. Loks to me like they are waiting until the close to ramp price to the overhead round number.

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  11. ES 30-min: now over the top, likely for the b wave of a Flat. This could provide alternation with a second wave.

    https://invst.ly/tpzzs

    TJ

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  12. 15 min chart of DJIA looks like a contracting triangle with e wave just about done.

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  13. Possible megaphone pattern on the SPX to coincide with back-test of broken wedge. Needs to hold 3898 though

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  14. No 3900 tag today. Perhaps next week? Have an awesome week-end everyone!

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  15. As of the futures settle, can only say the EWO is now in fourth wave territory near the zero line. Possible for wave 'c' of ((4)) on Sunday night.

    https://invst.ly/tq0jf

    TJ

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  16. Stocks above 20ma vs stocks above 50ma -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3aAJ8.png

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    Replies
    1. I totally agree and one of the reasons I haven’t committed a lot of funds in the market. Nice ratio.

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  17. New day, same old song...as improbable as it seems, market goes higher.

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    Replies
    1. ..see the next post. And, in the future, it would be best if you had wave-counting ideas to present and not just general comments.

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  18. There is a new post started for the next day.

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