As the machines try to reach the upper daily Bollinger Band (tonight at 3,928) the market keeps making more and more "running waves". These look like three waves up in a "b" wave, and five waves down in which prior lows are not broken on certain intraday time frames.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Minor C Wave |
The result is we remain in minute ((i)) until the local pattern breaks. The count from the low has been a little squirrel-ly but might count something like this on an ES 2-hr chart now that there is a new higher high.
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| ES Futures - 2 Hr - Minute ((i)) of Minor C in Progress |
In this case, the first wave minuet (i) is the extended wave in the sequence. Both new highs are divergent on the MACD on this time frame.
Make no mistake, the daily bias remains up. A current target is the upper daily Bollinger Band, and sometimes, not always, strong up Monday's lead to a Tuesday reversal.
TraderJoe
Fascinating how third waves up all fail to breach top acceleration channel, perhaps confirming corrective nature of relentless march higher, counter intuitive as this might seem...
ReplyDeleteCurrent look at the 4hr -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3aEao.png
Looks like possible exp flat for 4th.
DeleteIrregular failure?
DeleteMorning Joe
ReplyDeleteThanks for play by play. have great day. :)
So, this is a possible triangle waiting on FED Chair Powell who is supposed to speak today.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qiUTBIMp/
I'd be very suspicious if the triangle breaks down rather than the expected up direction.
TJ
..Powell speaks at 14:30 EST today.
Delete..here is a closer-in view of the triangle. The ((E)) wave down currently has sufficient overlap with wave iii.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rm7jktFm/
But triangles can do some funny things so (it can expand a bit in price; it can take more time). So one has to be on their toes. Still, travel below the ((A)) wave is not allowed in a triangle.
TJ
..that is now a 78.6% upward wave; if it is a new ((D)) wave, then the ((E)) wave must overlap the 3,900 high. If not, the wave will start the thrust of the triangle. Again, nothing below the ((A)) wave for a triangle.
DeleteTJ
I see a speech by Powell tomorrow at 2, but not anything listed for today except for Bullard? https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us
DeleteUpdate to prior 4hr -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3aF1q.png
Another confluent target is if TJ's triangle is proven true the target for the thrust turns out to be at about 3937. This is found by taking the widest part of the triangle between the top of the (b) wave to the (a) about 26 points. Then add that to what would be the break out point where approximately the top of the new (d) wave is at 3911. Of course the possible (e) wave is still in progress and must overlap at 3900 still.
DeleteGW,
DeleteThank you for all of your contributions to this forum I do appreciate it. I have definitely learned a lot in RSI from your charts. If you have the time can you give an example on how your hidden divergence values are calculated from your daily chart? Or direct me to a book to use on how to calculate those values for my own studying... Thanks
@GW .. agree with Tjc.
DeleteLooking SPX Cash 30-min; I'm beginning to wonder if we are getting the classic extended 'fifth' wave - perhaps the opposite of the futures.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/285OmGfr/
I can't find any other 0 - 2 trend lines that keep all of a third wave above them. If so, there might be significant implications for this count.
TJ
Looks to me like we have bullish flagging action...
ReplyDeleteApparently, Powell speech is tomorrow. Sorry for getting that incorrect.
ReplyDeleteWed
2/10
1:00 p.m.
Speech -- Chair Jerome H. Powell
Watch Live
State of the U.S. Labor Market
At the Economic Club of New York Webinar
SPX cash 15-min - a little shorter term, cash looks a little different than the potential triangle in futures. Cash has marginal higher highs.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IeglQV41/
TJ
..cash is over the former 3.918 high; not futures yet.
DeleteLet's see how the futures do overnight; there is still a way to make a higher high. But there is a way to see a top.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Ys1k4gtQ/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete