If I know, They Know

In several recent posts, I have written regarding the dividing line between a potential diagonal count and a continued Intermediate (Y) wave higher is the level of 3,943 - 3,950 depending on how much overlap you wish to see over the (W) wave. If I know that, then the quants and the machines know it, too. There are much smarter minds in this game than mine, for sure. Today's higher high allows the Intermediate (Y) wave to continue in some manner but is still not fully sufficient.

Yesterday, I wrote that the bias was still up and a triangle could break to the upside. It 'may' have but it could also be the (b) wave for an expanded flat for the minute ((ii)) wave. Below is a brief illustration.

If the minute ((i)) wave is completed then the up wave for the lower degree minute (b) wave can be theoretically as long in price or time as the minute wave ((i)), up, in the same direction, subject to the usual rules for "B" waves, in general.

So, if the up wave is continuing, it is still possible to see a 38.2% or longer down wave. Then, a third wave up would likely significantly break the wedge upward. This might come on the passage of stimulus or significant vaccine news, for example.

For those of you who wish to see the triangle, I'll leave that drawing and counting to you because the triangle looks stilted to me (with vertices that don't hit trend lines, and a very early break before the apex, etc.). On the other hand, the (b) wave might more easily be counted as a series of zigzags.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe