Without lower lows and lower highs, or higher highs and higher lows there is lots of uncertainty in the count. That will be addressed in short order from comments earlier today. But here is one objective item (of many you might chose).
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| NQ Futures - 1 Day - Close Below Band |
The NQ futures closed the day below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since the end of October, 2020! Can they continue lower? They can. One target might be the green 100-day moving average also shown on the chart. Closing below the band 'might' be the first step in a true breakdown lower. Still, a lower local low was not yet made.
Now to address the uncertainty in the ES count, this comment was posted earlier in the day..
"I'm sure you have lots of questions at this point. I do, anyway. That's because an awful lot depends on whether we take out the lows or not. I can currently find several ways to count.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Possibilities |
If
we count the triple-zigzag upward yesterday as an expanding diagonal,
this 'could be' the deep retrace of the diagonal, only. If we count the
triple zigzag as just a triple zigzag it could be (x)? If it can be
counted as a-b-c, up, some evidence on the 4-hr chart, then it could be
(ii), of a contracting diagonal downward.
One item of interest is
the 'speed of the decline'. That wouldn't seem to fit too well yet with
a continued expanding diagonal, and might better fit with a contracting
one, as an 'a' wave down, if an upward count is disrupted.
Bottom
line, highs or lows must be broken to better determine the count. And
there is a lot of 'algo risk' between 3,800 and 3,900."
So, the uncertainty remains going into the settlement. But even in this index, the daily bias has temporarily turned lower with a close below the 18-day SMA. And, a lower local low was not made, yet.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Thank you Joe, Keeping everyone abreast in these treacherous and unprecedented times.
ReplyDeleteyw .. Fibo .. thanks for saying.
DeleteGood stuff ...Thanks Joe
ReplyDeleteThank you for your analysis TJ. I’ve said many times I like to buy VIX & VXN spikes, we can go higher but I would be looking for a reversal as a buy signal. We are getting positive divergences on many TF’s in Q’s already. The week after option expiration has historically been the worst week of the month. It’s happening again.
ReplyDeleteSpx cash - if it is ABC lower. A = C = 3785.
DeleteNQ has now exceeded 2/23 low.
ReplyDeleteNQ has confirmed cash (NDX,QQQ) by exceeding 1/31 low.
DeleteUpdate on NQ 4hr -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3b7eC.png
I’m expecting bounce tomorrow or early next week.
DeleteYep! Lower NQ low for this wave down as well as a new 2021 low. Comment on negation of divergence very interesting. The narrative indeed may have flipped and instead of negation of bearish technicals seen on the way up, we see the exact opposite on the way down. T.J also referenced move below and back within B bands, normally a bullish trigger. Conventional wisdom has it that markets rarely bottom on Fridays. Interesting implications...
DeleteThe little guys. A look at the IWM daily -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3b7fn.png
Lol! They seem intent on arresting the impulse down, or at the very least intimidating bears into believing they can, but NDX keeps letting the proverbial cat out of the bag. It clearly called "B.S!" on Wednesday's phony rally which I thought exhibited classic "C" wave behavior. Meanwhile, DJIA looks primed to print a weekly gravestone doji. Kinda fitting...!
ReplyDeleteDxy is telling me we've just started. Probably a morning rally but I'll hold my shorts. Thanks as always for the good analysis and discussion.
ReplyDeleteES exceeded 23rd low.
ReplyDeleteMorning look NQ 4hr (note: 10min delay) -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3b7XZ.png
How probable is it that we just finished expanded flat from 1-26-21 ?
DeleteA closer look - NQ 30min
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3b83L.png
Why NQ-2 over NQ-1 ?
DeleteTo keep my nq1! mark ups intact on 4hr (lazy, lol)
DeleteGood morning all.. cash SPX has the new low too.
ReplyDeleteES 4-hr; for the wave iii of a potential diagonal lower, then wave iii should not exceed 3,780 (warning, this chart is not in real time and there has been a substantial upward overlapping bounce already)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/afTa5Mzu/
TJ
NQ 30min update -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3b8f7.png
👍
DeleteAlligator's mouth is open. :o)
DeleteRemarkably, NDX has yet to notch lower low as NQ has already.
ReplyDeleteES 5-min has a nice diagonal to this point. But, upward beyond here would have to be a flat as part of the correction.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tzifc
TJ
ES 5-min: Now at 38.2%, pretty much the minimum retrace.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/tzixt
TJ
ES 5-min; reached 50% correction with a better time signature. It is likely a double zigzag in a channel. Can still make a third zigzag if it wants to extend the time. But that is a bit more rare.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/tzjl9
TJ
ES 5-min correction at 62%, I can see one way it can go for 78.6%, but if/when over 3,832 then correction is likely completed, and look to break a trend line from the high.
DeleteTJ
NQ 30min update (with alligator and AO) -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3b8so.png
Next Monday is first day of the month. Will may be complete wave iv to the upside direction.
ReplyDeleteES 5-min; the level of 3,832 has been exceeded. Now time to watch the trend line from the high. Very possible correction of the diagonal wave is over. And, if we are making a 'c' wave up, it 'should' be an impulse for good alternation.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tzk3n
TJ
..first pierce of the trend line from the high; good sign. Now, the low of 3,812 should hold for the continued local up count.
DeleteCould an ending diagonal (contracting) be forming in Dow
ReplyDelete1- at 8.1.21 high
2-at 31.1.21 low
3-at 25.2.21 high
4-now forming low
hi Indy .. that's a good try, but I think some things are incorrect; the Dow futures has a higher high on 21.01.21, so you would have to move the 1 to there, because Flat waves are not allowed in diagonals. Second, where are you saying the diagonal 'starts from'? Where is the '0', origin? I see what you are thinking, I'd just like to cross check it.
DeleteThx, TJ
Oct low is 0 ie X on yesterday’s daily chart
Delete21.1.21 is 1 as you corrected
Thanks for the reply. I think in that case that wave 2 is much too small at less than 38%. 'Most' diagonal have waves 2 & 4 retrace between 62-81 percent. The guidelines are in the Elliott Wave Principle. They don't 'always' work, but they usually do.
DeleteMost grateful...btw been following you daily for a long time ...much respect for an excellent free resource
DeleteES 5-min, if wave 'b' is identified properly then wave ((2)) should try to hold that trend line (or stay much higher). It is ok for wave ((2)) to pierce that trend line, but it should close back above it.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tzkek
TJ
very complex wave, I thought it was a complex 4, with 5 started today. close and futures seems to suggest it. Have a good weekend everyone.
ReplyDeleteLol! I does not get any sneakier folk. New low AFTER session close! Yikes! Thanks for the blow by blow T.J and Greywaver. Enjoy your week-end eveyone!
ReplyDelete..see below; ES futures did not make a new session low by the settle. Not sure if it will hold or not. Looks like 'everyone left for Friday happy hour!' Me too!
DeleteES 5-min; that was the other way to get the 78.6% retrace that I mentioned. The three-zigzags was a leading diagonal. The high was not exceeded, and then a new low below the diagonal. Not sure if it will hold up or not. If not, then we might have (iv) or (x) as a failure at the high.
ReplyDeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete