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| ES - Hourly Close - Minor 2 |
It's still the same count until it isn't. The Minor wave 1 is an expanding leading diagonal, and Minor 2 is the > 78.6% "deep retrace" until it isn't. The channels may be telling. Within the double-zigzag wave Minor 2, the minute ((x)) is a flat wave, with it's b:3 wave retracing more than 90% of wave minute ((w)) which is a three-wave sequence. Within wave a of minute ((y)) the fifth wave ((5)) is the extended wave and is shown with a small x.
Again, the alternate is the triangle shown yesterday with about a 50:50 probability until a new low is made below the low of Minor 1.
Have a good start to the weekend.
TraderJoe
Joe I always enjoy and learn from your analysis. My data from stockcharts shows Adv Dec line at new or near all time highs. From a historian on Dow Theory and Cycles there was only 1 time in history when market topped at the all time high and ironically it was the 1929 top. How would you put that into perspective when it comes to considering wave counts realizing it is not a part of EW. Thanks Sam
ReplyDeleteDid you know there was a Nasdaq advance-decline line (symbol $NAAD on Stockcharts.com)? Have a look at it by contrast.
DeleteA lot of bulls are parroting the A/D argument and frankly I am not sure what data is being used to determine that metric. When one looks accross the indices and simply compares the number if 52 week lows vs highs it tells an entirely different tale. Where the hell is all this A/D B.S.coming from?!
DeleteIf you look at the second graph in this article (number of listed companies on U.S. exchanges), you can see we are not even dealing with the same stock market of 1980's, or 2000's.
Deletehttps://www.ft.com/content/0c9c0b64-9760-11e9-9573-ee5cbb98ed36
The number of listed companies has greatly declined. And, where, before the financial crisis the largest companies were General Motors, G.E., etc., they largest companies are now all FAANG stocks. 'Objectively" the data give a clue that 'something' is different. Can 'Financial Engineering' as in lower interest rates distort prices another time? I never said it couldn't. I have only provided the best best wave count with the waves that can be seen.
P.S. If for some reason you can't read the graph, the numbers were 5,000 in 1980 which rose to 8,000 in 2000, and is now down to ~3,000. Something is very different.
DeleteNote that the 3 times the yield curve has inverted in the last 70 years, the market has averaged 18% gains thereafter
ReplyDeleteWhat does that have to do with counting waves?
DeleteMeans you might want to consider changing your C or 2 (again)
DeleteYou don't state the time period for your gain. What about the inversion in 2008 to 2009?
Delete3 times is an incredibly small sample size. Definitely not a reliable data set to trade off of.
DeleteI never said I was long. I think it's an important data point to mention. I see EW cross outs daily here by people to claim to have it right yet they are wrong 10 times before they are eventually right. That's not successful trading, it's BS and I will call out those that will tout they are right when I watch their count get blown up daily. I would trade statistics and probability over EW any day.
Delete18-22 months
Delete@AW .. that's a long time from now.
DeleteI believe the top is in now.
ReplyDeleteWe should have another flat day on Monday,with a bit of intraday weakness.
Tuesday and the the rest of the week should be hard down into the following Monday.
I do think the crash wave is upon us now, downside target of ES 1800 by 23/24th September.
12 td's between Monday and the 24th 2980-1800 1180 pts.
DeleteThats just 98.3 SPX points each day.
Must be WW 3
Mid November 19th
DeletePerhaps. One does run the risk of looking foolish by making such predictions. A second wave can technically retrace 100% of a first wave and with the relentless CB bid under markets ( Oh yes! They have quietly restarted Q.E.!!), I would be surprised if we did not at least challenge the round number 3K level. We have no technical signs, imho, of a reversal yet, so the immediate trend remains up. First evidence will be a breach of the acceleration channel,and it will be quite clear when that occurs, no predictions needed...
ReplyDeleteTJ
ReplyDeleteIf the market follows your forecast we could reach 2 at the .886 retrace in the SPX
at 3004.5 about 26 points up
That is in fact, exactly what I expect, an intra-day upside breach of 3K.
ReplyDeleteIf the bulls manage to close price above it, I think it diminishes the viability of the bearish count. I have found that how price behaves around these round number signposts has been an excellent predictor of near-term price action.
Believe there is a big decline coming.....just some more
Deletetime and a couple of Zigs and Zags....first
BTW, penetration of the 3K level does tag the upper channel boundary...
ReplyDeleteI have been following this blog since 2017 and, in the meantime, I have read many comments/predictions coming from Tim and Dumnonia about apocaliptic market crashes coming the following week (dumnonia in Fabruary) or soon (Tim in this latest years).
ReplyDeleteI think that if one says that he'll be dead within a month, and continues to say so day after day, in the long run he will be right... we'll ALL be dead "within a month from a certain day".
So, guys, at a certain point you will be right, the stock market will crash, but the question is NOW, the question here is to try to guess what the market is going to do NOW using the information available NOW.
Instead of keeping talking about the 20's/30's why don't you watch, for example, this video
https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes/2019/9/6/do-the-facts-support-the-imminent-recession-theory-or-new-all-time-highs-theory
and dumnonia & Tim try to explain to us what (different) series of data bring you to those apocaliptic conclusions in the short run (dumnonia) or in "unprecised future" (Tim)?
My explanation is a long story John.
DeleteRather than clog up this blog, I wrote about what happened to me in February at my own blog. If you hit the latest post, it has links back to February.
@John .. CC slide shows "8/23/2019 Mixed Probabilities" which is all the 50:50 case shows. So, the video adds little. It 'may' be misleading as he does not address the 'timing' between a stock turn down and a turn up in the unemployment rate. Stocks are supposed to 'lead' based on the well known 'discount mechanism'. Above is a wave count. It is the best I can do based on the waves in evidence.
DeleteUPS has been quite good at indicating the turns in the market, while being easier to count. I outlined in blue the obvious 5 wave impulses. This last blue box looks pretty 5 wave like doesn't it?
ReplyDeletehttps://ibb.co/JKB722P
Regarding the investing.com line chart in your post, it is showing lower high (2 in upper left corner)and lower low (b on the right) when its opposite. Guess that dont matter?
ReplyDeleteBtw, what about below charts?
ES chart1
ES chart2
Based on above It seems like a case can be made for completion of w2? Granted certain factors like time, number of bars and length were not accounted for.
No, it doesn't matter, as the a:3 wave can be a flat.
Deleteoh didnt realize the above charts were not showing.. that should be fixed now. what do you make of the last bit in those? would that work? I guess we will find out soon in a day or so. Best to keep invalidation levels at hand.
DeleteHere's a possible count for SPX
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/QQxRfhA
yep..very similar; and the triangle would be telling.
DeleteYes gaps and decent volume last week indicates a completed triangle in there.
DeleteThing is it might be the pop out of (Y)..? I don't think we can rule either one out?
https://invst.ly/c5ux4
The lower low on DJI makes the bearish triangle look a bit odd?
DeleteBoth A and B leg of triangel is bigger than (W)
https://invst.ly/c5u-7
Lower low on DJI 15/8. maybe spx truncated..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/c5v0o
What if wave 1 ends at that later low? DJI topped earlier, maybe it bottomed later? Then simple wave 2 follows.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/fA0yimM
@Bob, can't have a, b, A, B; against the rules.
DeleteInteresting. Not too often you see a five-fold unsuccessful tap on overheard resistance on the one minute chart. 2991.38 appears formidable...
ReplyDeleteLower low in gold. I think its b
ReplyDeleteI was actually thinking that C up of an abc second wave was underway but you could be right in that b of two is heading a bit lower...
DeleteNext major leg I think is down. Correction just looks light in time but if that was a Contracting Ending Diagonal to 1566 it may not waste any time getting to 1412.
DeleteStrong support around 1470 so we could bounce there methinks...
DeleteCan Fri low to 2991 be counted as an ending diag? Maybe, don't know. But the rising wedge pattern broke.
ReplyDeleteLooking for an impulsive penetration of NDX 100 gap below 7720.
ReplyDeleteIf that happens I think this long-in-the-tooth possible upward second wave correction is fine....
New low under 2969.62 gives five down off the highs in ES...
ReplyDeleteLooks like a zig zag for two down and either a flat or triangle underway for a fourth wave...
ReplyDeleteThis would be about the max on ES for the triangle going back to mid April.
ReplyDeleteFourth wave triangle need to break to downside soon if that is what it is....
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me that the one thing that starkly separates EW analysts is the ability to correctly apply the rules so as to accurately distinguish between corrective and impulsive waves. It is becoming clearer me as I try to learn from the experts that failure in this area is the cause of 90% of erroneous counts. Joe is better at it than most imho..
ReplyDeleteToday's price action only, on the SPX, wave one overlap would occur at 2982.18
DeleteSo far, 5 wave impulses are looking very orderly on several stocks on my watchlist since last week. See UPS, V, DIS, GOOGL. Now to see how long they drag out this next corrective wave.
ReplyDeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteToday's 5 minute chart looks remarkably similar to the main chart posted as ES - Hourly Close - Minor 2. Maybe this fractal can show us how the hourly will fare.
ReplyDelete