Two Competing Counts Using the 'Same' Waves

U.S. Debt Clock: $22.55 Trillion
ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Lower Low, Higher Close: Trend Candle
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing Waves
Daily Swing Line: Up (Higher Low, Higher High)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Over 18-day SMA)

Looking at the long-standing chart of the hourly ES, below, it is hard to argue that the structure shown and all of the latest waves have occurred within the patterns indicated. One target was hit today: the upper larger (gray) channel line and the  mid-point of smaller (red) channel.

ES Futures - Hourly - Channel Hit

Tomorrow is the ECB meeting and who knows what they will do. We know that Mario Draghi is retiring, and tomorrow is his last announcement. Christine LeGarde takes over.  One could sense at the end of the day everyone had been chased out of the markets, and so, a final ramp occurred. The up wave may not be over. It is difficult to count.

Part of the reason that only 50:50 odds were given to a downward count was that an awful lot of "B" waves have been observed. They can do a lot of things on "news". They are usually "phonies". For this reason, the alternate count is shown in red on the chart, above. Below is shown how this alternate might play out on a weekly chart.

ES Futures - Weekly - More to Intermediate (B)?

If prices go over the top - like the stock of AAPL has - then it would suggest that Intermediate (B) is extending towards the 1.382 x Intermediate (A) Fibonacci level shown. It's very hard to know where that X wave goes. As it is, it is shown as a 'failure flat', with the five-waves down from b:3 as the c:5 wave of that flat. It could also go where the b wave, alone is shown. The market hammered out a new trend line.

Here IS  the chart of AAPL as shown earlier in the day. While the chart does look ominous - as a possible diagonal - it must, 'indeed' prove itself.

AAPL - Daily - Potential Diagonal

The potential diagonal in AAPL meets all the requirements in terms of both price and time - at least at present. And the signature on the Elliott Wave Oscillator is the classic diagonal divergence. I don't see the market going too far without this stock. The slow stochastic of the ES daily futures is still embedded, however, and that is something to noodle on.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe