Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Two Competing Counts Using the 'Same' Waves

U.S. Debt Clock: $22.55 Trillion
ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Lower Low, Higher Close: Trend Candle
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing Waves
Daily Swing Line: Up (Higher Low, Higher High)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Over 18-day SMA)

Looking at the long-standing chart of the hourly ES, below, it is hard to argue that the structure shown and all of the latest waves have occurred within the patterns indicated. One target was hit today: the upper larger (gray) channel line and the  mid-point of smaller (red) channel.

ES Futures - Hourly - Channel Hit

Tomorrow is the ECB meeting and who knows what they will do. We know that Mario Draghi is retiring, and tomorrow is his last announcement. Christine LeGarde takes over.  One could sense at the end of the day everyone had been chased out of the markets, and so, a final ramp occurred. The up wave may not be over. It is difficult to count.

Part of the reason that only 50:50 odds were given to a downward count was that an awful lot of "B" waves have been observed. They can do a lot of things on "news". They are usually "phonies". For this reason, the alternate count is shown in red on the chart, above. Below is shown how this alternate might play out on a weekly chart.

ES Futures - Weekly - More to Intermediate (B)?

If prices go over the top - like the stock of AAPL has - then it would suggest that Intermediate (B) is extending towards the 1.382 x Intermediate (A) Fibonacci level shown. It's very hard to know where that X wave goes. As it is, it is shown as a 'failure flat', with the five-waves down from b:3 as the c:5 wave of that flat. It could also go where the b wave, alone is shown. The market hammered out a new trend line.

Here IS  the chart of AAPL as shown earlier in the day. While the chart does look ominous - as a possible diagonal - it must, 'indeed' prove itself.

AAPL - Daily - Potential Diagonal

The potential diagonal in AAPL meets all the requirements in terms of both price and time - at least at present. And the signature on the Elliott Wave Oscillator is the classic diagonal divergence. I don't see the market going too far without this stock. The slow stochastic of the ES daily futures is still embedded, however, and that is something to noodle on.

Have a good start to the evening.


  1. Joe, can the count from the low in Dec2018 be an ending diagonal in SP and NDX. Thanks Sam

  2. Getting the C leg in gold I was looking for. Numerous 4s are still needed.

    1. Looks fugly since 1492. Could only be 1 of diagonal for C.

    2. Supporting c being over is that b was 1.618 a. c getting to a new high with that deep of a b may be asking a lot. The decline of today's high is hard to call.

  3. Sal, Tachyon & others. Stop the useless mind-dump, or the blog will be switched to "comments approved by moderator only".

  4. Joe -

    While the counts and squiggle are getting resolved, I have a question regarding the market characteristic you have at the top. Clearly communicating these seem to be important to you as you include them at the top of every thread.

    It may require a dedicated thread kind of like Ira Epstein rules, but my question regarding the 5 items below are:

    a) Can you briefly expand on why it important to disclose these?
    b) loosely define how it's measured and what the 'selections' are. For example, will Daily Swing line always be just up and down, or sideways also?
    c) Perhaps most importantly, what is the implications of any of these with regards to EW counts. Does a certain combination 'confirm' completed or an impending top/bottom and at what time degree?

    1) U.S. Debt Clock:
    2) ES Daily Candle:
    3) Market Posture:
    4) Daily Swing Line:
    5) Daily Bias:


  5. AAPL now clearly has the 'throw-over' typical of a diagonal.


  6. I know this is unlikely but is it even possible?

    1. Im just trying to find a possible solution for the many degree problems a higher (B) would have, with W of (B) bigger than all of (A) AND X bigger in time than all of (A)

    2. This is what I mean, we have talked about it before ET!

    3. This is actually the only count I can see that works with degree (I haven''t checked internal degree in 1 though). BUT this count have degree problems in cash because 4 is so short so B of 2 is bigger than 4. maybe it truncated in cash..

    4. Dow didn’t truncate so (4) is actually bigger than b of (2) in cash and futures!

    5. Erik, Thanks for posting ideas. I have struggled with SPX/ES since the election.

    6. Sure seems like this is all that has been going on.

      bottom of page 2

  7. A new post has been started for the next day.