ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Lower Low, Lower Close: Doji Candle
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing Waves
Daily Swing Line: Up (Higher Low, Higher High)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Over 18-day SMA)
The ES daily futures traded mostly higher in the overnight. They went up to hit the upper daily Bollinger Band and they began to fall off as the market opened. Declines were very limited and settlement was near the day's open making for another Doji candle. Of note, the volume was relatively light and the daily slow stochastic did embed with both the %K, and %D lines over the 80% level for the third consecutive day.
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| ES Futures - Daily Embedded |
Because of the limited declines and hesitant price movement, today "felt" very much like part of a fourth wave, as below.
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| ES Futures - Hourly Close - Possible iv |
If today was a 'c' wave of a fourth wave, the market really hesitated to make a fifth wave, lower of 'c', and by the close one could not be claimed. So, such a fourth wave may not be entirely over yet. There are, of course, a lot of wave patterns that could be fourth waves. The key is that this wave iv - with it's higher b wave in the overnight - would seem to provide good enough alternation for the simple and sharp wave ii.
Nothing has changed overall, and probability of a downward count remains only 50:50. Keep in mind the alternate at this time is the large daily triangle shown previously, and if a significant downward wave occurs and primarily only overlaps ((w)) and a, then that wave could be part of a large pre-FED triangle. The FOMC meets next week, as a reminder.
Have a good start to the evening and to the week.
TraderJoe
I think financials are showing the "real" count the best, as in it's not the larger triangle option. It actually counts very closely to the WXY option, except it's a simple ABC from Dec lows with B as a 3-3-5 flat. Bring up BAC or C and you'll see it. XLF is more smoothed out but it's there too.
ReplyDeleteNot sure we will see another wave up. Uptrend does not have a lot of leadership.
ReplyDeleteLeaders V, MA, PYPL, LULU, and many others all showed signs of distribution and little accumulation. I have never seen this happen in a healthy uptrend.
DeleteTodd check out MCD
DeleteThanks C.
DeleteES working on an Contracting Diagonal?
ReplyDeleteMy thought on gold is a running correction since 1511. Looks really weak. We have overlap since the overnight low.
DeleteAcceptable 'five-down' in the overnight futures as an expanding diagonal with ((5)) > ((3)) > ((1)) in both price and time. Also ((4)) > ((2)) in price and time and ((4)) overlaps ((1)) without trading beyond the end of wave ((2)).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/c6iix
TJ
.. one way to see it as continuing to the open or near to the open.
DeleteYes, and I think potential iv has taken more time than B down maybe change of degree
Delete..watch the hourly up channel on cash.
Delete..yes, it may have taken more time. Definitely on 'top watch'.
DeleteThis action sure has a wave three personality to it
ReplyDeleteStrange as it may seem, I really hate seeing classic reversal signals like island reversals. I am convinced that the gangsters in the financial community have been deliberately targeting those well-know signals for negation of late. If I am correct, the cretins will once again fill the gap down this morning, lol!
ReplyDeleteNQ NASDAQ futures have downward overlap on minute ((w)) already.
ReplyDeleteRUT really bucking the trend this morning...!
ReplyDeleteSee below.
DeleteToday also marks exactly to the day in symmetry that was pointed out in Joe's video. The minute b wave of A down to the December 2018 lows is now equal to this possible wave 2 down.
ReplyDeleteWatch for this style count on the Russell 2000 futures. Wave ((5)) is currently shorter than wave ((3)).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/c6llq
TJ
By measurement, the Russell's count is good to 1,539 (using the micro).
DeleteRising wedge throw over
DeleteTrump fires Bolton, which breaks smaller diagonal on Russell. Potential for a larger one on the 4-hr chart.
DeleteSomething like this could be the larger 4-Hr diagonal on the Russell, but it's hard to trust it until prices are trading back inside the wedge.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/c6mlv
TJ
Just observing. Move down from 9th in ES fits in parallel channel currently. wxy ?
ReplyDelete..no..bad count on your part
DeleteOk. Are you thinking this rally is a "c" of exp flat for a 2nd wave (or B) after the exp diag? Or am I totally screwed up here?
DeleteThanks
Or 2nd wave of 3 or C if prior high not exceeded?
DeleteGW .. go back to the second chart. The exp diagonal lower, was five of iv. Should now be in fifth wave up.
DeleteJust information - the Dow may not be done with it's morning retrace yet, but it has reached the 78.6% level, which 'is' sufficient to call a truncation if needed. It may well be expected to go on to form it's fifth wave higher high.
ReplyDeleteSo. here is the best count on cash I can see. This would be a "top is in" count, and would be better confirmed by two hourly candles trading completely below the hourly up trend channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/c6nu3
TJ
... in this case the diagonal downward is 'leading' and not ending.
DeleteThis morning, I had said there was a chance of one more downward wave in the diagonal, and just wanted to confirm what it looked and counted like.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/c6o1p
TJ
Thanks!!
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteNo. That is not correct, Tachy ..I have pointed out to many, many readers on here how long the GOLD market took to reach it's second wave bottom in 1999 - 2001. It took 'more than' a full year + a quarter to make wave 2. Chart below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/A1N2P2cZ/
Don't let lack of experience cause you to draw very, very incorrect conclusions. It's a real question whether readers of this blog have the 'patience' needed to accurately count Elliott Waves.
TJ
Point well-taken TJ. I of course did not mean the longest second wave at ALL degrees as that would be a silly comment. My point was compared to the initial wave down for a possible impulsive larger downside wave, the corrective move up, IF of the same degree, does seem to have lasted longer that usual. The initial wave down lasted just over a week. This corrective wave down has lasted well over one month. I personally do not remember ever seeing a minor wave correction with that disparate a time relationship in any of the major indices. I realize Gold could be differente.
ReplyDeleteThe point is really whether or not you even remember $250 gold (with it now at $1,500). Then, with that deep retrace look at the long, multi-year sustained rise. A retrace like that of some 90 - 95% completely contradicts Neely's thought that beyond 62% the odds of a second wave get really low. Well, not for GOLD apparently.
DeleteSo, for those following SP500 cash; here is a five-minute chart. Not sure if the second wave (in a downward count) will become a double zigzag or a flat. There are only three-waves up off the low, so far, and then what "looks like" a complex wave down.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/c6oii
TJ
Thanks Joe
Deletewelcome Roy.
DeleteSPX now up and over the likely 'x' wave channel.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/c6ota
TJ
The DOW has surpassed it's morning high.
ReplyDeleteES and SPX surpassed their ((C)) waves, up.
DeleteHere's the cash chart at the end of the day.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/c6p0o
TJ
..cash is back to the vicinity of the prior fourth wave.
DeleteThe DOW did appear to eek out a new higher high.
DeleteNew DJIA highs suggesting that ES is not quite done to the upside, unless of course we see some stark divergences in the indices. The CBs are still buying it seems to me.
ReplyDeleteI for one am expecting the initial impulse down will close the gap below to signal a top is in. The grind higher continues...!